Mark, I want to start with a question that is from our previous guest, Puja Kumar, over at TD Bank. She was saying there's really nothing that payrolls or inflation could give us next week that would put this Fed cut in doubt in September. Do you agree with that. I don't agree with that.I know that actually there are many people in markets who are in that camp, I would say is the majority view. But I think there is still a risk of 50 basis points and I still think there's a risk of nothing. I think the non- ...

Signs that interest rates would soon come down helped fuel the home flipper's rally.After breaking out in July, Opendoor Technologies (OPEN 0.98%) soared again in August, climbing on the thesis that the business would turn around on new signs that the Fed would cut interest rates. Investors also reacted positively to news that CEO Carrie Wheeler would be stepping down, showing hopes that a new leader could help drive a turnaround.That general momentum was able to overcome a weak second-quarter earnings repo ...

Market Overview - Stocks ended August higher but showed weakness towards the end of the month, with the S&P 500 falling 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite losing 0.8% [2] - Broader selling was observed across stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies [2] Economic Concerns - Recent market weakness is attributed to concerns over global debt and inflation, with 30-year bond yields nearing 5% and 10-year yields around 4.27% [3] - There are worries about governments' ability to manage rising debt levels without triggering inflation, creating a divergence where the bond market signals higher rates while equity markets anticipate a rate cut [3] Employment Trends - Companies reported higher profitability levels that outpaced revenue gains, with hiring slowing and layoffs occurring, potentially due to AI filling entry-level roles [5] - This trend indicates a shift towards greater efficiency with fewer workers, enhancing profitability but reducing job opportunities [5] Corporate Developments - Kraft and Heinz will split into two separate companies after a decade of merger, as shares have fallen 45% since the merger [7] - Macy's shares rose over 10% in premarket trading after the company raised its full-year guidance, contrasting with trends seen in other retailers [9] Antitrust Ruling - A judge ruled in the government's antitrust case against Alphabet, allowing the company to maintain its Google Chrome browser and continue payments to Apple, which account for 5% of Apple's revenues [6] Historical Context - The period from Memorial Day to Labor Day saw equities perform their best in forty years, suggesting potential positive trends for the remainder of the year [10] - However, September has historically been the worst-performing month for equities, averaging a 2% loss, indicating potential volatility but also opportunities for recovery later in the year [10]

RT Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive)JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Fed Governor Waller says, "We should cut at the next meeting."September rate cut incoming. 🚀 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing demand for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by changes in investment regulations in countries like India and Saudi Arabia, as well as the ongoing economic conditions in the U.S. [2][30] - It highlights the potential for stagflation in the U.S. economy, suggesting that commodities and defensive stocks may be favorable investments, while bonds and growth stocks could face pressure [2][30]. CFTC Data Analysis - As of August 26, 2023, the net long positions for COMEX gold increased by 4.5% to 461 tons, while silver saw a significant rise of 18.8% to 5,319 tons [3][6]. - The total long positions for COMEX gold rose by 2.2%, and for silver, it increased by 10.3%, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [3][6]. - The article notes that the net long positions for platinum and palladium have shown mixed results, with palladium remaining in a net short position for 137 weeks [7][18]. Global Investment Trends - Indian pension fund managers are advocating for increased investment limits in gold, real estate trusts, and infrastructure trusts, which could lead to a significant increase in gold demand [2][27]. - The Saudi Arabian central bank's recent purchases of silver ETFs signal a growing interest from sovereign wealth funds in precious metals [2][29]. Economic Indicators - The article suggests that the U.S. economy may be entering a stagflation phase, which historically leads to increased investment in commodities and physical assets [2][30]. - The correlation between gold prices and North American gold mining stocks has weakened, with the gold price to mining stock ratio dropping to its lowest in three years [19][21]. Market Sentiment - The gold-silver ratio, an indicator of market sentiment, was reported at 86.885, reflecting a slight increase but a cumulative decline of 4.4% for the year [23][24]. - The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two rate cuts by the end of the year [26][30].

💥BREAKING:92% chance the Fed will cut rates at the next FOMC meeting. https://t.co/OnyTQmqF1o ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 92% probability the Fed cuts rates at the next FOMC in 15 days. https://t.co/g8SF7dfJeS ...

Following today's PCE and consumer sentiment data, as you can see, the S&P 500 off by a little more than half a percent. Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global market strategist Scott Ren joins us. If we were to ask you to take that rarack test that Steve was just talking about and interpret disperate data, how do you read it on the economy.Well, I tell you, uh, Contessa, we're looking for the economy to slow. And you know, Steve mentioned that Atlanta GDP number, which you know, I'm you know, I I'm ...

Economic Overview - Pre-market futures are improving following the release of major economic numbers, despite a drawback in EU markets due to rising unemployment and inflation in Germany [1] - U.S. indexes are experiencing volatility, with the small-cap Russell 2000 showing gains while other major indexes remain in the red [1] PCE and Inflation Metrics - July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures were in-line with expectations, indicating no hindrance to the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut for the September Fed meeting [2] - Personal Income for July increased by 0.4%, the strongest since April, while Personal Spending rose by 0.5%, marking the highest increase since March [3] - The headline PCE Index showed a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, the lowest since May, with a year-over-year increase of 2.6%, consistent with the previous month [4] - Core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, indicating stability in inflation metrics [5] Employment and Economic Indicators - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's focus has shifted from inflation to employment concerns, with July's non-farm payrolls showing an increase of 73K, which is below the previous four-month average of 54K [8] - A significant upward revision in PCE would be necessary to alter the current outlook, as weakening employment is influencing the decision for a rate cut [9] Trade and Inventory Data - Advanced Trade in Goods for July reported a deficit of $103 billion, which was more than $10 billion lower than anticipated [10] - Advanced Retail Inventories and Wholesale Inventories both reported a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, indicating stable inventory levels [11] Market Expectations - The upcoming week will feature new jobs reports, including July JOLTS numbers and private-sector payrolls from ADP, leading up to the significant BLS non-farm payrolls report [12]

Core Insights - The 10-year yield is stable around 4.22%, while the 2-year yield is near 3.635%, indicating a cautious market awaiting key inflation data [1] - Economists anticipate a 0.2% increase in headline PCE and a 0.3% rise in core PCE, which would elevate the year-on-year core rate to 2.9%, marking the highest level since February [2] - The Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma as inflation remains firm, but job growth has slowed, shifting focus from inflation to employment concerns [3] Market Behavior - Market expectations for a rate cut in September are still present, but there is a pullback on how aggressive the Fed can be, especially if core PCE reaches 2.9% or higher [4] - Fed minutes from July indicated that a majority of officials viewed inflation risks as more pressing than job concerns, although recent soft labor data has influenced market perceptions towards a potential rate cut [5] - Economists are divided on the Fed's next steps, with some suggesting that political factors are complicating the decision-making process regarding rate cuts [6]