Walk us through the scenario analysis here. Does this go well. Does this go poorly. How does the market interpret this print.Good morning from the beautiful city of Singapore. Sun shining here, everybody looking forward to the weekend. But before that, yes, we have that cool E number that everybody is focusing on.I feel like, you know, the way that the market is priced right now, people are expecting a slightly higher inflation reading, but they're also not that bothered about it. And I think that the reaso ...

Corporate News - Remy Cointreau expects a 20 million euro ($23 million) impact on operating profit due to U.S. tariffs, revised down from a previous estimate of 35 million euros after a trade deal between the U.S. and EU set baseline duties at 15% [5] - The EU has formally proposed the removal of tariffs on U.S. industrial goods, which is a condition set by the White House for reducing rates on automobiles for the bloc [5]

Meanwhile, S&P 500 did hit a record high this morning, pulling back from those highs with Nvidia's earnings now in the rearview mirror. What's next on the Catalyst Watch. CFR research chief investment strategist Sam Stovall is with us on this Thursday.Great to see you, Sam. Welcome back. Thank you, Carl.Good to talk to you again. So, um I guess is does PCE count. Are we really looking forward ahead to uh to the jobs number in the coming weeks.I think PCE does count, but less so than the jobs report. Uh Fed ...

💥BREAKING:TRADERS NOW PREDICTING A 44.7% CHANCE OF A 50BPS CUT BY THE OCTOBER 29TH FOMC MEETING.BULLISH FOR MARKETS! 🚀 https://t.co/BQ15YYJdS7 ...

🇺🇸 FED WILL CUT RATES IN SEPTODDS ARE NOW 87%🔥These dumps are to scare you so big money can buy your cheap coins before the pump starts. https://t.co/TaoVAYAFWP ...

💥BREAKING:THE ODDS OF SEPTEMBER INTEREST RATE CUT ARE NOW 84%. https://t.co/MAzmAGomRQ ...

Financial News - Increased credit card debt is stressing Americans [1] - The Federal Reserve is possibly nearing an interest rate cut [1] Personal Finance - News that could impact your wallet this week [1] - How you can prepare your finances for the week ahead [1]

Market Expectations & Fed Policy - The market anticipates a hawkish rate cut in September, with interest rate-sensitive sectors like retail, home builders, and banks rallying on this expectation [2] - The market initially overreacted to dovish comments, overlooking broader market dynamics; a weaker dollar supports international markets, commodities, and multinationals [2] - The market may be prematurely pricing in an easing cycle beyond a single rate cut, given persistent goods inflation [10] - Prior to the speech, there was a 74% chance of a rate cut, which increased to 87%; this shift, though not drastic, significantly moved the market [10] - In May, the odds of a rate cut were zero, with the "higher for longer" narrative gaining traction [11] Inflation & Employment - Inflation remains a key concern for the Federal Reserve [1] - The Fed is balancing its mandates of stable pricing (inflation) and full employment, with recent jobs numbers raising concerns [4][5][8] - PPI data indicates ongoing goods inflation, though services inflation is balancing it out [10] Rate Cut & Neutral Rate - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates, with the key question being whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points [5] - Determining the neutral rate (estimated around 3% to 35%) is crucial for gauging how aggressively the Fed will cut rates to avoid inflationary or deflationary pressures [6] - The current Fed funds rate is approximately 43%, positioning it in the middle of the range [6]

Federal Reserve Policy & Market Reaction - Fed Chair Powell's remarks opened the door to potential rate cuts as early as next month, leading to a surge in stocks and bonds [1][4] - The market initially priced in a 65% chance of a rate cut, which increased to nearly 90% following Powell's dovish tone [11] - A 12 basis point drop in the two-year yield was observed, indicating a more dovish stance than anticipated [13] - The market has largely priced in the expected rate cuts for the current year, particularly in the two-year note [19][20] - The September meeting is not a "done deal," with a range of possibilities still on the table and dependent on upcoming data [10][11] Economic Indicators & Outlook - The Fed is closely monitoring the labor market, with potential for more aggressive rate cuts if the unemployment rate rises quickly; expectations are around two cuts this year as part of a recalibration [4][16] - GDP growth is slowing to 12%, which is characterized as healthy, but there is fragility due to tariff volatility impacting business investment and lower-end consumers [25][26][27] - The base case anticipates a gradual slowing of GDP growth, but earnings have held up well, with second-quarter earnings showing 5% to 10% EBITA growth on the margins [38] - The long end of the yield curve is influenced by factors like the deficit, which are likely to prevent rates from aggressively declining [49] Credit Market & Investment Strategies - Howard Marks suggests putting more defense into portfolios and investing in credit as opposed to equities [30] - The market is seeing elevated yields that keep supply relatively lower and demand for yield buyers will continue to be there [39] - There is a potential for mispricing in individual securities, but overall, credit is seen as more attractive than equities, given the contractual return [40][41] - European markets are currently considered cheaper than the US, creating a good buying opportunity [50][51]

Market Trend - Bitcoin experienced a 769% increase from last September to December when the Fed cut rates [1] - The Fed has indicated the possibility of rate cuts in September [1] Policy - Powell suggests that the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy [1]