Market Trends & Capital Flows - A significant asset allocation shift away from the US dollar in international portfolios was observed, particularly into European equities, leading to their outperformance [2] - This asset allocation shift was most aggressive from March to June, with Asia following later, peaking in June [3][6] - The US dollar has stabilized in the last six weeks [7] Monetary Policy & Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's actions will define the next move for the US dollar [3] - The Fed faces a tricky balancing act between unemployment and inflation [4] - The market is closely watching the labor market to determine if the Fed will cut rates [7] - A hawkish rate cut is expected in September, but the Fed is unlikely to commit to a multi-cut path due to inflation concerns [9] - Tariffs are expected to increase again by October, potentially impacting inflation [8] US Dollar & Government Influence - The US Treasury Secretary has expressed a desire for a weaker US dollar [10] - The US influence on the dollar is primarily through verbal interventions rather than direct control like China [11][12] - The cyclical state of the US relative to the rest of the world will ultimately determine the dollar's value [12] - The tariff push is expected to be paid for mostly by consumers, potentially leading to a decrease in consumption towards the end of the year [13]

So was you hate being wrong sitting here 87% chance last night now down to 73%. Does the stock not bond does the stock market care about a rate cut. >> I think so.I you know there was this time last year when the S&P was about a,000 points lower than we are now. The market was pricing in six rate cuts in 2025. Here we are now a,000 points higher.We're talking about two maybe three. So I would say all of that good news in terms of just rate cuts are priced in. So the short answer is absolutely.The market wil ...

So, will Pal give the markets what it wants or will he try to take the focus off of rate cuts. Our next guest thinks the latter in her new piece titled The Jackson 5. Joining me now is Sarah House, Wells Fargo senior economist.Sarah, it's great to have you on. Welcome. Thanks, Morgan, for having me.So, what do you think. We have a lot more data here and it's not decided. We do.So, we have, of course, another month of inflation data and of course another jobs report. And so I think when we hear pal tomorrow, ...

Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The Fed's members must work without political considerations to make the best judgments [2] - The FOMC consists of governors and Fed presidents, requiring consensus-building rather than individual decisions [6][7] - The Fed is balancing sluggish job market and GDP growth with above-target inflation, primarily in services [9] - The debate within the Fed centers on whether to prioritize inflation or the labor market side of the dual mandate [11][12] - A strong August jobs number could reduce the likelihood of action at the September meeting [12] - The debate is about the risk of not meeting either side of the dual mandate [12] Inflation & Economic Data - Approximately 80 million workers in the US making $50,000 or less have lost over 25% of purchasing power in the last five years [14] - The Fed should aim for a 2% headline inflation rate, especially for low and moderate-income workers [14][15] - Consumers can substitute goods for services, with goods representing about 25% of the US economy and services 75% [17] - The Beige Book is a critical part of the Fed's process, providing valuable anecdotal insights from businesses across the country [20][21] - Over-reliance on any single data print should be avoided, focusing instead on three-to-six-month trends [23][24]

So let's talk about the other side of the mandate, the inflation uh side. ...

Joining us this morning, Yordenni Research President Ed Yardi joins us. Ed, I've been thinking about you and sort of your general optimism about certainly the earnings trajectory right now. What do you think is this little hiccup's about.Is it about August. >> I Yeah, I think it's about uh the Fed meeting in September. I think there's a concern that uh maybe it's not 80% after all as the odds of a Fed rate cut.Uh I I if I had to put my own probability on it, it's under 50%. I'll give you 40%. Uh I'm still i ...

Federal Reserve Policy - The market sell-off coincides with rising risk of no rate cut [1] - Attention is focused on the labor market as a key factor influencing the Fed's decisions, despite earlier FOMC minutes emphasizing inflation [2][3][5] - A 50 basis points rate cut is unlikely, with the probability of a 25 basis points cut decreasing to 77% from nearly 100% [4] - The Fed previously cut rates aggressively based on perceived labor market weakness [6] Labor Market - A weak July labor market report could trigger the Fed to act, even without inflation reaching the target [3] - The Fed's dual mandate focuses on maintaining stable prices and full employment [7] Tariffs and Consumer Spending - Retailers report mixed impacts from tariffs, with some initially absorbing costs but later changing their approach [9][10] - The impact of tariffs is difficult to assess due to ongoing announcements, delays, and rate adjustments [10] - Inflation data and company reports show a bifurcated impact, with some companies benefiting from front-run ordering and inventory building [11]

The Kansas City Fed economic po policy symposium starts today in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. And that is where we find our senior economics reporter, Steve Gleeman. He has a special interview for us.Steve, good morning, Becky. As is tradition, we sat down with the host of the symposium, the Kansas City Fed President, and I started by asking Jeff Schmidt, now in his second year as president, for his comments about allegations of mortgage fraud against Fed Governor Lisa Cook. we have responsibilities responsibilit ...

Ahead of Jackson Hole, Fed’s Schmid flags inflation as key concernn https://t.co/fCujUYKGUj ...

Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - President Trump calls for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook amidst mortgage fraud allegations [1][2] - The potential firing of Lisa Cook is seen as part of Trump's broader effort to influence the Fed and push for lower interest rates [4][10] - The market is currently pricing in three rate cuts by the end of the year, but concerns about inflation persist [14] - The Fed faces a difficult situation with conflicting signals from employment and inflation data [16] - The CME Group's Fed watch tool indicates around 80% probability of a September rate cut [12] Allegations Against Lisa Cook - Lisa Cook is accused of listing two different residences as her primary residence on mortgage applications [3][6] - The head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has referred the allegations to the Justice Department [2][3] - It is noted that there may be circumstances where listing two primary residences is permissible, such as co-signing for a dependent [3][7] Market Expectations & Fed's Stance - The market anticipates Fed Chair Jerome Powell to slightly open the door to a rate cut in September [13] - Recent weak jobs numbers and downward revisions to hiring in May and June could tilt the scales towards a rate cut [14] - The minutes from the recent FOMC meeting revealed that most Fed members remain focused on inflation [11][13] - Only two out of twelve Fed members indicated that the risks of lower employment outweigh those of inflation [12]