Market Trend - Bitcoin experienced a 769% increase from last September to December when the Fed cut rates [1] - The Fed has indicated the possibility of rate cuts in September [1] Policy - Powell suggests that the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy [1]

Powell Says Conditions ‘May Warrant’ Interest Rate Cut In Jackson Hole Speech. Get Live Updates Here: https://t.co/fEPj8N5Kia https://t.co/RlUZRGwmuz ...

A big day for the markets as we get ready for Fed Chair J Pal's address in Jackson Hole. Steve Leeman is there and he joins us right now along with former Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and CNBC contributor and former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson. Steve, uh, a lot of anticipation ahead of this. Yes, an awful lot. And I think I have a great panel to talk about ahead of time, but before I do, I want to just update viewers on where the Fed funds futures market is going into this speech. And there's ...

Group 1 - The iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING) has reached a 52-week high and is up 83.01% from its 52-week low of $27.70 per share, indicating strong momentum in the fund [1] - The MSCI ACWI Select Gold Miners Investable Market Index tracks companies primarily generating revenue from gold mining in both developed and emerging markets, with RING charging 39 basis points in annual fees [1] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which would likely lead to a depreciation of the U.S. dollar and increased demand for gold [2] Group 2 - Gold is considered a safe-haven investment, and current geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are further supporting its price [3] - Gold mining stocks have recently experienced significant gains as they often act as leveraged plays on the underlying metal [3] - RING is expected to maintain its strong performance in the near term, with a positive weighted alpha of 65.57, suggesting potential for further rally [4]

Market Overview - Major indexes closed mostly in the red, with the Dow down 157 points, S&P 500 down 24 points, and Nasdaq down 90 points, while the small-cap Russell 2000 gained 4 points [1] Economic Indicators - S&P flash Manufacturing PMI for August reached 53.3, significantly above the anticipated 49.5 and July's 49.8, marking a more than 3-year high [2] - August Services PMI was reported at 55.4, the second consecutive month above 55 this year [2] Company Earnings Reports - **Zoom Communications (ZM)**: Shares rose 6% after Q2 earnings beat expectations by 10% at $1.53 per share, with revenues of $1.217 billion, a 4.7% year-over-year growth, and non-GAAP operating margins at 41.3% [3] - **Intuit (INTU)**: Shares fell 5% despite beating fiscal Q4 earnings expectations by 10 cents at $2.75 per share, with revenues of $3.8 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase, attributed to lackluster guidance for the current quarter [4] - **Ross Stores (ROST)**: Shares increased by 2.3% after Q2 earnings of $1.56 per share exceeded consensus by 4 cents, with revenues of $5.5 billion, a 5% year-over-year growth, and expected comps of 2-3% going forward [5] Upcoming Events - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's address at the Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY, is anticipated to provide insights on interest rate decisions for the September meeting [6] - Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is due out a week from Friday, with the last report showing year-over-year PCE at 2.6% and core PCE at 2.8% [7]

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 FED OFFICIAL SAYS: WITH DATA NOW, WOULDN'T SEE CASE FOR SEPTEMBER CUT.THIS IS BEARISH. https://t.co/jn8k7l1nJE ...

特朗普持续施压美联储之际，关税政策正加剧其内部分歧。 美东时间8月20日周三，美联储公布的7月会议纪要显示，多数决策者支持暂不降息，仅沃勒和鲍曼两人 反对。 多数美联储官员强调，通胀风险远高于对劳动力市场的担忧。 据CME"美联储观察"，目前美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为81.9%。 10月维持利率不变的概率为8%，累计降息25个基点的概率为46.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 45.5%。 内部分歧加剧 7月美联储继续按兵不动，将利率维持在4.25%至4.5%区间不变。 会议纪要显示，多数名决策者认为，通胀比就业风险高，特朗普关税影响需要一些时间才会全面显现。 官员们围绕关税对通胀的影响，以及当前政策立场的"限制性"程度，展开了激烈辩论。 与会者强调，通胀长期超过2%的水平，加之关税对通胀的潜在持续影响，可能加剧长期通胀预期失控 的风险。 值得关注的是，美联储副主席鲍曼与理事沃勒则以就业市场恶化，主张立即降息25个基点。 他们的不同意见，也标志着自1993年以来首次有两位理事与美联储主席意见相左。 目前，沃勒和鲍曼已经出现在鲍威尔2026年5月第二任期结束后继任的财政部候选名单上。 一是根据鲍威尔的新闻 ...

Core Insights - Gold has seen significant demand this year due to U.S. policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, leading to substantial investments in gold ETFs, with global inflows reaching $43.6 billion as of August 15, 2025, potentially surpassing the record of $49.5 billion set in 2020 [1][11] Group 1: Investment Trends - North America contributed approximately $24 billion in gold ETF inflows, marking its second-strongest annual performance, with SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) attracting $9.6 billion, followed by iShares Gold Trust (IAU) with $6.1 billion and SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) with $4.8 billion [2] - China led international inflows with $7.8 billion, followed by the UK ($2.9 billion), Switzerland ($2.5 billion), Japan and France ($1.2 billion each), and India and Germany ($1.1 billion each) [3] Group 2: Market Drivers - U.S. policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs, has driven investors towards gold as a defensive investment, with gold traditionally serving as a wealth preservation tool during financial and political instability [4] - A weaker U.S. dollar, down 9.4% this year, and increased central bank purchases have also supported gold prices, with 95% of central banks expecting to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [5] - The likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has risen, with markets predicting over 90% probability for cuts in September, making gold more attractive compared to fixed-income investments [6] Group 3: ETF Details - SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) has an AUM of $103.5 billion, with an average daily volume of 9.3 million shares and annual fees of 40 bps [7] - iShares Gold Trust (IAU) has an AUM of $48.6 billion, with average daily volumes of 6 million shares and annual fees of 25 bps [9] - SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) has an AUM of $16.8 billion, with an average daily volume of 3 million shares and low annual fees of 10 bps [10] Group 4: Future Outlook - Given the ongoing tariff uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts, investor interest in gold ETFs is expected to remain robust in the coming months [11]

Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The Fed faces a tug of war between employment/growth and inflation, striving to avoid stagflation [1] - Uncertainty prevails regarding which side (employment/growth vs inflation) poses a greater threat, leading the Fed to maintain current interest rates [2] - The Fed is potentially tilting towards a rate cut, possibly starting in September, influenced by recent softening employment numbers and declining workforce participation [3][4] - A 50 basis point cut is unlikely, as the Fed aims to maintain credibility and independence, and current data doesn't warrant such an aggressive move [6][9] - Employment data is the key indicator the Fed is closely monitoring to determine the timing and extent of potential rate cuts [12][13] Economic Factors & Market Dynamics - Tariffs' impact on inflation is still unfolding, with the value chain potentially absorbing some of the costs [11][12] - The US economy is viewed optimistically in the next 12-18 months, driven by innovation and significant investment in AI [15] - The US private sector and China are the primary forces driving AI development, with both vying for their standards to prevail [16][17] - AI has the potential to transform industries, job markets, and the central bank's reaction function, creating both winners and losers [19][20] - Breakthrough technologies like AI historically create more jobs over time, although the transition period may present employment challenges [21]

Group 1: Retail Earnings - Lowe's shares are indicated higher by 3% in premarket trading after beating earnings expectations, meeting revenue forecasts, and raising future sales guidance [3] - Target shares are down 9% in premarket despite beating revenue and earnings forecasts, as overall sales and traffic fell [4] - TJX Companies shares are indicated higher by nearly 4% after raising full-year earnings per share guidance following a stronger-than-expected quarter [5] Group 2: Market Trends - Technology stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down 3.5% and Palantir down 9%, leading to a 1.5% drop in the Nasdaq Composite [2] - Home Depot's stock rose 3% following a solid earnings report, contrasting with Target's significant drop [6][4] - Market volatility remains low with the VIX under 16, and S&P 500 profits have been strong and better than expected [10] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The annual economic conference in Jackson Hole is underway, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech anticipated on Friday [8] - The probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the September Fed meeting is currently at 83% according to the CME Fed Watch Tool [8] - Home Depot indicated modest price increases are likely, a shift from previous statements about tariffs not impacting pricing [7] Group 4: Company-Specific Developments - Lowe's announced an $8.8 billion acquisition of Foundation Building Materials to attract more home building and home improvement professionals [3] - Intel shares have risen 27% this month following discussions of U.S. government investment and a $2 billion investment from Softbank [9] - The Trump administration is considering taking a stake in Intel, with similar discussions for Micron and Taiwan Semiconductor [9]