US-Ukraine Relations & Geopolitics - The US is sending more weapons to Ukraine via NATO, with NATO distributing and paying for them [2] - President Trump is delaying possible sanctions against Russia for 50 days [1][3][9] - The US may impose 100% secondary tariffs on countries helping Russia if no deal is reached within 50 days [2][9] - North Korea is supplying as much as 40% of Russia's ammunition, including 6 million rounds of artillery [35][36][38] - Iran has built a drone factory in Russia, supplying Shaheed drones that are impacting Ukrainian infrastructure [36][41] - China is backstopping the Russian economy by increasing imports and exports, and providing microelectronics for Russian missiles [37] Financial Markets & Trade - The S&P is pushing higher by 0.1%, the Dow is up by 0.1% (24 points), and Nasdaq is up by about 0.3% [6] - Bitcoin is showing a gain of 1%, closing in on $122,000 earlier in the session [6][47] - Autodesk is no longer pursuing an acquisition of PTC, with Autodesk shares up by 5.6% and PTC lower by 1.7% [7] - Tariffs of 30% are threatened against Mexico and Canada, effective August 1 [8] - The EU is threatened with a 30% tariff, which the EU trade chief said would prohibit trade between the US and the EU [87] US Domestic Policy & Politics - Congress is gearing up to vote on three separate pieces of legislation pertaining to the crypto industry, including the GENIUS Act and the Clarity Act [46] - A rescissions package to claw back $9.5 billion is expiring on July 18 [61] - The White House is scrutinizing the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovations, calling for an audit against the backdrop of complaints about Fed Chair Jerome Powell's approach to interest rates [74]

The busiest trade hub in the US saw container traffic rebound last month after a slump in May, as importers grapple with volatility driven by President Donald Trump’s trade war https://t.co/Ou2QvcrXF8 ...

- We have tariffs pouring in at levels that we have never seen before, and they've only just started. That's really a small portion. It's mostly from cars and aluminum and steel, a little bit of lumber, but they'll really start in about another week.And then in about a month, they'll come in at levels that are extremely strong. And our country's making a lot of money. And our country made $25 billion last month. 25 billion.That hasn't done that in a long time. And a lot of that's done because of good manage ...

this really stands. Where are we. We are right in the thick of it, Andrew.Good morning, guys. So, two new warning shots fired to those two trading partners this weekend. The president vowing to impose 30% tariffs on all of their exports to the US as soon as August 1st.Now, we did hear Mexico's President Claudia Shinbound and the head of the European Commission, that's Ursula Vanderlayan, both vowed to continue negotiations with the US in the hopes of reaching a deal by early August. But Vanderland also warn ...

Donald Trump’s proposed 30% tariff on European Union goods is “effectively prohibitive” to transatlantic trade and could warrant retaliation, the bloc’s chief negotiator said. https://t.co/3zkejIGguc ...

Macroeconomic & Trade Dynamics - China's Jan-June trade surplus reached CNY 4210 billion [1] - China's trade resisted pressure in the first half of the year [1] - Discussions are ongoing regarding trade tensions with the EU [1] - Potential meeting between Xi Jinping and Trump is anticipated [1] - Price wars in China are considered more dangerous than tariffs [1] Geopolitical Relations - Australia is pursuing 'practical cooperation' with China [1] - The relationship with China is considered 'very important' [1] - Focus on China-Australia ties [1] Economic Outlook - Examination of the global economic outlook [1] - Monitoring of US CPI data [1] Social Trends - 'Anti-Involution' is identified as a new buzzword in China [1]

Trade Relations - Thailand's Finance Ministry is considering zero tariffs on more US imports [1] - Thailand proposed to the US to reduce its trade surplus by 70% in the next 5 years [1] - Thailand aims to achieve trade balance with the US in 7-8 years [1] Tariffs and Trade Balance - The proposal aims to counter the 36% tariffs imposed by the US [1]

Indonesia is set to appoint a US-educated technocrat as its ambassador to Washington as the Southeast Asian nation recalibrates trade and business ties with the world’s largest economy https://t.co/s8AlrzdoDn ...

Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan could lead to Armenia being integrated into the region’s “middle corridor” for trade and energy that links China and Central Asia to Europe, bypassing Russia.The effects of this would be felt widely https://t.co/mdyy9wSBU9 ...

Trade Negotiations & Market Impact - The market has largely priced in President Trump's negotiating style regarding trade, characterized by aggressive initial stances followed by negotiation [2][3] - The market's current tolerance of this approach may embolden the President to continue [5] - Exhaustion with trade tensions is anticipated around Q3, potentially pressuring policymakers [7] - Tariffs' impact on company margins and revenue is expected to become more apparent in Q3 as older, cheaper inventory is depleted [7][8] Earnings & Company Performance - Consumer companies with limited pricing power and excess inventory are likely to be most affected by tariffs [10] - Negative comments regarding tariff impacts are expected to emerge in late July/early August during earnings season, particularly from companies reporting later [10] - Larger companies and multinationals can mitigate tariff effects, aided by a weaker dollar and lower oil prices [11] Currency & Monetary Policy - A weaker dollar is anticipated over the next 12 months due to expected aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve compared to other central banks [12] - A temporary spike in inflation from tariffs is expected to drive the weaker dollar view [13] - A near-term dollar rally is possible as a counter-trend move, which could negatively impact equities in Q3 [13][14] - The currency market has already largely priced in tariff concerns [15] Equity Market Outlook - US stocks are expected to continue to outperform global stocks [17] - A market cleanout occurred in April, reversing the rate of change in stock performance [17]