this really stands. Where are we. We are right in the thick of it, Andrew.Good morning, guys. So, two new warning shots fired to those two trading partners this weekend. The president vowing to impose 30% tariffs on all of their exports to the US as soon as August 1st.Now, we did hear Mexico's President Claudia Shinbound and the head of the European Commission, that's Ursula Vanderlayan, both vowed to continue negotiations with the US in the hopes of reaching a deal by early August. But Vanderland also warn ...

Donald Trump’s proposed 30% tariff on European Union goods is “effectively prohibitive” to transatlantic trade and could warrant retaliation, the bloc’s chief negotiator said. https://t.co/3zkejIGguc ...

Macroeconomic & Trade Dynamics - China's Jan-June trade surplus reached CNY 4210 billion [1] - China's trade resisted pressure in the first half of the year [1] - Discussions are ongoing regarding trade tensions with the EU [1] - Potential meeting between Xi Jinping and Trump is anticipated [1] - Price wars in China are considered more dangerous than tariffs [1] Geopolitical Relations - Australia is pursuing 'practical cooperation' with China [1] - The relationship with China is considered 'very important' [1] - Focus on China-Australia ties [1] Economic Outlook - Examination of the global economic outlook [1] - Monitoring of US CPI data [1] Social Trends - 'Anti-Involution' is identified as a new buzzword in China [1]

Trade Relations - Thailand's Finance Ministry is considering zero tariffs on more US imports [1] - Thailand proposed to the US to reduce its trade surplus by 70% in the next 5 years [1] - Thailand aims to achieve trade balance with the US in 7-8 years [1] Tariffs and Trade Balance - The proposal aims to counter the 36% tariffs imposed by the US [1]

Indonesia is set to appoint a US-educated technocrat as its ambassador to Washington as the Southeast Asian nation recalibrates trade and business ties with the world’s largest economy https://t.co/s8AlrzdoDn ...

Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan could lead to Armenia being integrated into the region’s “middle corridor” for trade and energy that links China and Central Asia to Europe, bypassing Russia.The effects of this would be felt widely https://t.co/mdyy9wSBU9 ...

Trade Negotiations & Market Impact - The market has largely priced in President Trump's negotiating style regarding trade, characterized by aggressive initial stances followed by negotiation [2][3] - The market's current tolerance of this approach may embolden the President to continue [5] - Exhaustion with trade tensions is anticipated around Q3, potentially pressuring policymakers [7] - Tariffs' impact on company margins and revenue is expected to become more apparent in Q3 as older, cheaper inventory is depleted [7][8] Earnings & Company Performance - Consumer companies with limited pricing power and excess inventory are likely to be most affected by tariffs [10] - Negative comments regarding tariff impacts are expected to emerge in late July/early August during earnings season, particularly from companies reporting later [10] - Larger companies and multinationals can mitigate tariff effects, aided by a weaker dollar and lower oil prices [11] Currency & Monetary Policy - A weaker dollar is anticipated over the next 12 months due to expected aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve compared to other central banks [12] - A temporary spike in inflation from tariffs is expected to drive the weaker dollar view [13] - A near-term dollar rally is possible as a counter-trend move, which could negatively impact equities in Q3 [13][14] - The currency market has already largely priced in tariff concerns [15] Equity Market Outlook - US stocks are expected to continue to outperform global stocks [17] - A market cleanout occurred in April, reversing the rate of change in stock performance [17]

Trade Policy Changes - US President considers raising universal baseline tariff from 10% to 15% or even 20% [4] - Potential doubling of the baseline tariff, impacting the cost of goods bought from abroad [4] - Initial postponement of major tariffs deadline suggested a potential softening of trade stance, but subsequent threats indicate otherwise [5] Canada Trade Relations - US President announces 35% tariffs on imports from Canada [1][2] - Canada is the second largest US trading partner and the largest buyer of American goods last year [2] - Exemptions for USMCA compliant goods and lower 10% tariff for energy imports may soften the impact [2] - The decision on tariffs is not final [3] Broadening Trade War - New tariff threats against Canada and Brazil [5] - Potential 50% tariff on copper and 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals [6] - A vast expansion of the trade war on multiple fronts is occurring [6]

President Trump’s threat for a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports expanded his use of punitive duties over matters that have nothing to do with trade, breaking with more than a half-century of global economic precedent https://t.co/z0ZrVwSFit ...

Tariffs Impact on Trade - A 35% tariff on Canada may not be as impactful as it seems due to USMCA exemptions for goods traded through the U S trade deal, including machinery, auto, and auto parts [1] - The 35% tariff is not significantly higher than the existing 25% level [2] - Tariff announcements have been moved back before, especially for Canada, as negotiations with the U S and Mexico regarding USMCA updates are ongoing, raising questions about whether the tariff will be implemented or used as a negotiating tactic [3] US Tariff Strategy - President Trump is questioning the assumption of a 10% baseline tariff [4] - Tariff letters sent to various economies indicate double-digit increases, aligning with previous observations [5] - Japan and South Korea are actively trying to lower tariff levels to avoid implementation before August 1st [6] - A 20% tariff level would effectively double the economic damage expected by markets and economists from President Trump [6] - President Trump monitors the markets and may adjust tariff levels based on market reactions [6][7] Economic Data and Future Outlook - Increased talks and negotiations are expected as the new deadline of August 1st approaches [8] - Economic data from Japan and China will highlight the risks to economies, including unemployment rate, inflation, labor market dynamics, and GDP [9] - Data is expected to show weak exports due to tariffs and uncertainty, potentially weakening investment in industrial production [10] - Companies across Asia are already experiencing price pressures due to tariff negotiations with the U S [11]