27 Jun 2025 17:07:58 ET │ 26 pages V i e w p o i n t | US Economics Weekly Summer of dove CITI'S TAKE Our base case for rate cuts to resume in September appears to have rapidly become the Fed official consensus. Two-year Treasury yields declined to reflect the likely upcoming cuts. We project the unemployment rate to rise from 4.2% to 4.4% next week, following continuing jobless claims higher. A sharper weakening in the job market (4.5% unemployment) could lead officials to bring forward the next cut to Jul ...

The UK’s bright weather is lifting spirits and helping fill cash registers, @lararhiannonw writes, but it also comes with challenges (via @opinion) https://t.co/xfWrrZDopP ...

Market Overview - The market has recovered most of its losses from earlier in the quarter, finishing strong despite initial turbulence caused by President Trump's trade policies [1][2] - The upcoming week is expected to be shortened, following a quarter that started poorly but ended on a high note, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a steady investment approach [2] Company Insights - Constellation Brands is expected to report disappointing earnings, reflecting broader challenges in the consumer packaged goods sector [4] - The company faces headwinds from the rise of GLP-1 weight loss drugs and increasing consumer preference for cannabis, which are negatively impacting alcohol sales [4] - Constellation Brands' sales are particularly affected by Trump's immigration policies, as approximately half of its beer sales come from Hispanic consumers who are now spending less due to concerns over employment [4] Economic Indicators - The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index will be released, serving as a key indicator of the industrial economy's health, with potential implications for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [3] - Mortgage application figures are anticipated, which have been described as a significant burden on the economy [5] - The labor report set to be released on Thursday is critical; weak data could lead to renewed criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and raise the possibility of a rate cut in July [5]

Joining us now, Seth Carpenter, global chief economist at Morgan Stanley. Steve Leeman, uh, is also here, Steve. Um, welcome, Seth.Good to have you on. Let me just Let's I you know, I said immediately, wow, we got good reasons and bad reasons to cut. Yeah, there's a lot to get through here, Joe, and I think we're still seeing maybe some distortions from tariffs and some also some of the changes going on from the Trump administration.So, just to get to the income number, which Rick correctly raised, you know ...

US consumer spending declined in May by the most since the start of the year https://t.co/hSJlLE6F8w ...

US consumer spending declined in May by the most since the start of the year https://t.co/wuDir2JXg1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Carnival Corp reported strong fiscal second-quarter results, exceeding expectations, but shares traded lower amid a challenging market environment [1][2]. Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Goldman Sachs analyst Lizzie Dove maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $31 to $33, citing significantly better-than-expected results and conservative guidance [2]. - Stifel analyst Steven M. Wieczynski reaffirmed a Buy rating and increased the price target from $33 to $34, noting gross and net revenues of $6.3 billion and $4.9 billion, respectively, which surpassed consensus estimates [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Guidance - Carnival's management raised full-year guidance for adjusted earnings from $1.83 per share to $1.97 per share and for adjusted EBITDA from $6.7 billion to $6.9 billion [4]. - The company indicated that 2026 bookings are approaching record levels, which may alleviate investor concerns regarding cruise demand [5]. Group 3: Market Context and Strategic Positioning - Despite a murky macro and geopolitical environment, Carnival's local European exposure and focus on drive-to/shorter itineraries from the U.S. provide a buffer against potential headwinds [3]. - Analysts highlighted the significant free cash flow generation currently being produced, which will assist in deleveraging Carnival's balance sheet [5].

Visa CEO Ryan McInerney said Tuesday that despite bleak sentiment data and a pullback in sectors like travel, U.S. consumer spending remains overall strong. ...

I want to get your reaction to not only the US stock futures but also the oil market considering what we saw from the president if you go on social media of course. Uh the president posting about the potential for regime change over in Iran saying it's not politically correct but basically uh positing whether or not that might be the right decision there. Surprised that we're seeing such a muted reaction again in equities and in oil after this? It is. I was talking to people over the weekend and I was like, ...

Wall Street's always looking for signals. Signals from all over the place, but especially from the Federal Reserve, which is why I keep coming back to this subject. I just explained what happens when the Fed signals that it's willing to strangle the life out of the economy in order to curb inflation.Investors figure that we're headed into a slowdown. The stock market plummets and it tends to stay down. Now, let's talk about the other side of the coin.Because while the Fed can be the ultimate destroyer of va ...