The CNBC NRF retail monitor is out for the very important shopping month of November. Our senior economics reporter Steve Leeman joins us right now with the exclusive results. Steve, what's the verdict.Are they shopping. >> Uh, good morning uh Becky. November holiday shopping getting off to a lackluster start according to the CNBC NRF retail monitor monitor.But the results it battled some calendar issues that hold out hope that a season saving spending rush could come in December. Let's take a look at the d ...

performance is not in the eye of the beholder and it's pretty easy to see that some formerly unstoppable stocks have momentarily lost some of their mojo. So on a day where the Dow soared 646 points SB advanced 1% but the NASDAQ where much of tech dwells declined.26 26. Let's take a hard look at what should be done with beloved stocks that have been stalled.Stocks like Apple, Meta, and Tesla, all which are up about 10% for the year. Let's start with what's h the heck is happening with the actual stock market ...

consumers in good shape. They're spending money. Uh we just your team had Liz Ever on earlier and she does a great job describing it.And when you look at the broad base of what they're doing, about 4% of the money yearover-year, November, November went in the economy. Uh the consumer's healthy. There's money in deposits.It's a little bit they were talking about Kep shape or alligator shape. They had all different points, but a little bit uh faster the upper tile of income versus the lower. And but it's all ...

Economic Growth & Forecast - Broadly, outside forecasts indicate a pickup in growth [1] - The baseline expectation is a growth pickup from the current 1.7% [2] - The SEP median growth is 1.7% for the current year and 2.3% for the next year [2] - Adjusting for shutdown impact, growth would be 1.9% and 2.1% respectively [2] - Solid growth is expected next year [3] Key Drivers - Resilient consumer spending is a contributing factor [1][3] - AI spending on data centers is supporting business investment [1][3] - Fiscal policy is expected to be supportive [2]

Consumer Spending - American Express CEO 表示美国感恩节期间消费者支出同比增长 9% [1]

Consumer Spending Trends - Overall consumer spending is still growing, but the pace has slowed, increasing by 13% year-over-year in November, down from 24% in October [2][3] - Seasonally adjusted month-over-month consumer spending was flat in November, the first time in five months it didn't grow [3] - Higher-income consumer spending grew by 26%, while lower-income consumer spending grew by 06%, indicating a divergence [4] - Middle-income consumer spending experienced a pullback, going from up 17% to up only 14% [5] Wage Growth Disparities - Higher-income wage growth was up 4% in November, the highest level in four years [6] - Lower-income households also saw wage increases, going from 1% to 14%, but the difference remains significant [6] - The labor market for lower-income individuals is stabilizing rather than declining [7] Labor Market Insights - The number of accounts receiving a paycheck increased by 02% in November, indicating the labor market is expanding, though at a slower pace than in previous months [10][11] - The number of new households receiving unemployment benefits remains relatively consistent with previous months [13] - The labor market is described as being in a "higher low fire environment," but still expanding [13] Inflation Analysis - Growth in holiday spending is driven by more transactions, suggesting inflation is not accelerating in that area [15][16]

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan Global Data Watch Industry Overview - The report discusses the global economy, highlighting a growth trajectory that is above potential, with GDP expected to exceed forecasts in the upcoming quarter [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth vs. Labor Market**: There is a noted tension between strong output growth and soft labor markets, which is unsustainable without either increased hiring or a slowdown in growth [1]. The expectation is for a rebound in hiring, supported by consumer spending and fiscal/monetary policies, leading to a more balanced economic expansion in the first half of 2026 [1]. - **Global Composite PMI**: The J.P. Morgan global composite PMI indicates a potential annualized GDP growth of nearly 3%, which is over a percentage point stronger than previous projections [2]. The manufacturing PMI suggests a 1.3% annual rise in global industry, with a positive trend in orders relative to inventories [2]. - **Business Spending**: Mixed signals are present regarding business spending, with U.S. Fed regional surveys showing an uptick in capital expenditure, while the global investment goods PMI fell below the neutral mark [3]. This has led to a stall in the global capex nowcaster for the first time since the beginning of the year [3]. - **Employment Trends**: The global employment PMI has decreased, indicating weak job growth, particularly in the U.S., where a significant drop in private hiring was reported [10]. However, a decrease in unemployment insurance claims is a positive sign [10]. - **Consumer Spending**: Real consumer spending in the U.S. was softer than expected, with a flat report for September and a downward revision for August [11]. Despite this, there were rebounds in Chase card data and auto sales in October and November, indicating some resilience [11]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The report anticipates a variety of outcomes from central banks as the global easing cycle concludes. Expectations include one rate hike, eight cuts, and twelve holds by year-end [13]. The Fed is expected to signal a cautious approach to future cuts, while the Bank of Japan is anticipated to hike rates due to fiscal policy changes [16]. Additional Important Insights - **Euro Area Resilience**: The Euro area shows signs of resilience, with upward revisions to PMI and GDP growth, indicating a growth rate of 1.6% annualized [18]. Despite trade war impacts, fiscal easing in Germany is expected to bolster growth [18]. - **China's Economic Signals**: China's PMIs suggest a year-end recovery, with positive signals from new export orders and construction PMIs, although services have softened [21]. The forecast for GDP growth in Q4 is 3.0% quarter-over-quarter [21]. - **Trade Agreements**: The status of the USMCA renewal is uncertain, with potential delays in legislative approval until 2027, despite expectations for a preliminary agreement [23]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the J.P. Morgan Global Data Watch, focusing on the global economic outlook, labor market dynamics, consumer spending trends, and central bank policies, while also highlighting regional insights and trade considerations.

Carvana - Carvana is experiencing a rally due to its addition to the S&P 500, which has brought significant attention to the stock [1] - The company has shown resilience despite previous financial flaws, as consumer appreciation for its car-selling model has helped it overcome challenges [2] - Carvana was highlighted as a potential best stock in May when it was down 27% from its 2021 high, indicating a notable trend reversal [3] - The stock's performance has improved since its S&P 500 inclusion, demonstrating the unpredictable nature of stock spotlighting [4] - Effective risk management is emphasized as crucial for investors, allowing them to minimize losses while capitalizing on significant gains [5][6] - Carvana's market share has increased due to higher interest rates pushing consumers towards the used car market, leading to profitability from a low of $3.50 in December 2022 [7] Airline Industry - Delta Airlines has been added to the best stock list, with a focus on its potential to break through a significant resistance level at $70 [8] - Despite media speculation about consumer spending slowing down, evidence suggests that consumer travel demand remains strong, with record passenger screenings reported [10][11] - The hotel and cruise industries are also confirming robust consumer activity, with hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) remaining above 85% nationwide [11] - Expedia is viewed as a viable investment opportunity, with a favorable chart pattern indicating potential breakout [12][13] - Delta is recognized as a leading airline brand in North America, with strong operational performance [14]

THING WOULD BE IN THE THE MID CAP 400. AND IT WOULD BE MORE DISCOVERED OKAY. >> GOOD STUFF.THANK YOU FOR THAT DESCRIPTION TOO. SO FROM FROM YOU KNOW A STOCK THAT'S DONE OKAY. WITH HIGH EXPECTATIONS BY JOSH TO ONE THAT'S DONE REALLY POORLY THAT YOU'VE SOLD BRIAN BELSKI.IT'S DOWN 50% YEAR TO DATE THEREABOUTS. AND IT IS DECKERS. SO TELL ME WHY YOU'RE BOUNCING ON THIS NOW.IS IT JUST SIMPLY IT'S BEEN SO DISAPPOINTING. YOU CAN'T STAND TO HOLD IT ANYMORE. >> THAT'S PART OF IT. THE OTHER PART OF IT IS THAT WE THINK ...

Consumer Trends - Higher-income consumers are shopping more frequently at Walmart, a trend observed for some time [2] - Lower-income consumers are facing pressure due to years of price inflation, although recent low single-digit inflation and lower gas prices offer some relief [2][3] - Walmart U S has over 7,000 rollbacks in place to keep prices down [4] Inflation and Pricing Strategies - In-store inflation at Walmart is 1.3%, compared to a national average of nearly 3% [3] - Grocery store inflation has been 25% over the last 5 years [3] - Walmart is actively managing costs by improving quality, changing country of origin, and moving factories to maintain lower prices [4] Business Performance and Strategy - Walmart's margins are tight, around 4% [5] - The company is approaching $1 trillion in retail sales [5] - The business model is evolving with income from membership and advertising, changing the composition of the income statement [6] Leadership Transition - Doug is leaving his leadership role at Walmart to pursue a combination of business and philanthropic endeavors [1][7][9]