Consumer Spending Trends - Households earning between $50,000 and $100,000 are trading down and cutting back on spending [1] - Households earning between $50,000 and $100,000 are feeling increasingly strapped [1] - High earners continue to spend [1]

Following today's PCE and consumer sentiment data, as you can see, the S&P 500 off by a little more than half a percent. Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global market strategist Scott Ren joins us. If we were to ask you to take that rarack test that Steve was just talking about and interpret disperate data, how do you read it on the economy.Well, I tell you, uh, Contessa, we're looking for the economy to slow. And you know, Steve mentioned that Atlanta GDP number, which you know, I'm you know, I I'm ...

Back consumer sentiment data out a few moments ago. It did miss. That's after inflation data this morning was roughly in line with estimates.Joining us this morning is Joseph Tanius, chief investment strategist at Northern Trust Asset Management. And Mark Xandy's back, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. Guys, happy Friday.Happy end of summer. It's good to have you both. Mark, um, I don't know if you thought PC was going to be the most important number for a while, but we are heading into some labor numbe ...

Well, let's talk more about the opportunities now in retail. Joining us now is New Burger Burman analyst John San Marco. John, good to see you today.When you're looking at the earnings that have come out recently, it really does appear that there has been some resilience in the face of tariffs. How do you explain it. >> Yeah, great to see you.Thanks for having me on. That that's well put. Um, you know, I think tariffs are, you know, one, manifesting a bit slow, more slowly than expected.Um, two, I I think t ...

We're waiting for the jobless claims numbers to drop. So I'll tell you, the GDP in the first revision rises to 3.3% from the prior forecast of prior number of 3%. Now, here are claims 229, significantly lower than last week's 234 and below the 230.That was forecast, although that's pretty close. 1,954,000 continuing claims up from or down a little bit actually from 1,000,961. The previous number was 1,000,972.So a little bit of a pullback there in the number of people who hadn't gotten jobs. So jobless clai ...

Core Viewpoint - Ulta Beauty Inc. is entering its second-quarter earnings report with strong sales momentum and international expansion plans, despite facing margin pressures and changing consumer spending patterns [1]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to report second-quarter fiscal 2025 results on August 28, with earnings projected at $5.07 per share, an increase from the previous estimate of $4.87 but down from $5.30 a year ago [3]. - Revenue is forecasted to rise by 4.7% year-over-year to $2.67 billion, slightly above consensus estimates of $2.66 billion [4]. - Gross margins are anticipated to narrow by 20 basis points to 38.1%, while operating margins are expected to contract by 160 basis points to 11.3% [4]. Analyst Ratings and Forecasts - Telsey Advisory Group analyst Dana Telsey raised her price forecast for Ulta to $590 from $520, reflecting a 21.4x multiple on forward earnings, which is above recent trading levels but below Ulta's 10-year average [2]. - For fiscal 2025, Ulta reaffirmed guidance with sales expected between $11.5 billion and $11.7 billion and earnings per share between $22.65 and $23.30, while Telsey raised her EPS estimate to $23.45 [6]. Strategic Developments - Recent corporate updates include the planned conclusion of Ulta's Target shop-in-shop program in 2026, the acquisition of U.K.-based retailer Space NK, and international expansion initiatives in Mexico and the Middle East [5]. - Leadership changes are ongoing under new CEO Kecia Steelman, who took over in June following the departure of CFO Paula Oyibo [5]. Market Sentiment - Analysts from JPMorgan, Barclays, Oppenheimer, Canaccord, and DA Davidson have raised their price forecasts for Ulta, reflecting optimism despite margin challenges [8]. - Telsey highlighted consumer spending trends as a significant risk for the latter half of the year, with fragrance being a standout category while skincare, wellness, and makeup show mixed performance [7].

Group 1 - Discretionary spending has faced challenges due to economic uncertainties, particularly influenced by Trump's tariff policies, leading to consumer uncertainty about the future [1] - Despite the overall decline in discretionary spending, certain sectors, such as department stores, have shown resilience [1]

Company Performance - Walmart experienced its worst day since April after missing earnings expectations for the first time in over two years [1] - Despite the earnings miss, the company is raising its sales and earnings forecast [1] Tariff Impact and Mitigation - Walmart has been able to absorb a significant portion of tariff costs, performing better than anticipated in May [2] - The company is aggressively working to keep prices down despite rising tariff costs [3] - Price increases in tariff-impacted areas are causing lower and middle-income consumers to switch categories or reduce unit purchases [3] Consumer Behavior - The consumer is generally resilient and holding up [3] - There are early signs of consumer pullback among lower and middle-income groups due to price increases [3] Future Outlook - The impact of tariffs is being phased in gradually, with potentially more effects visible by early 2026 [5][6] - Much of the inventory affected by tariffs is already in place, including holiday merchandise [5] - The ultimate impact of tariffs depends on ongoing negotiations with China and retailers' diversification efforts [6]

Core Insights - Target reported a decline in net sales of 0.9% for the quarter, an improvement from a 2.8% drop in the first quarter, indicating ongoing struggles amid consumer backlash and tariff pressures [3][4] - Lowe's exceeded expectations for earnings and sales, announcing a deal to acquire Foundation Building Materials, which distributes construction materials, despite DIY products making up 70% of its sales [1][2] Company Performance - Home Depot's net earnings were reported at $4.6 billion, slightly below the expected $4.71 billion, with net sales of $45.2 billion, down from the anticipated $45.3 billion [3][4] - Home Depot's president stated that the results were in line with expectations and reaffirmed a fiscal guidance of 2.8% sales growth for the year [4] Market Trends - CFO Richard McPhail indicated that higher tariff rates on some imported goods could affect prices, but adjustments would not be broad-based, with customers shifting from larger home improvement projects to smaller ones due to uncertainty and higher borrowing costs [5][6] - Foot traffic at Home Depot stores fell by 4.3% in July, while online sales increased by approximately 12% compared to the second quarter of 2024 [9] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Major retailers, including Lowe's and Walmart, are scheduled to report earnings, which may provide insights into how they are managing the impact of higher tariff rates [7][8]

Mike, it's great to see you. So, a little bit of good, a little bit of bad here. The stock is going up.What was your read on the numbers. Yeah, the the miss was really small. Uh, you know, the same sort of sales missed by like 10 basis points and it was the best comp that they've had in about two years.A lot of the underlying metrics are showing, you know, better demand, not where we were, you know, many years ago during the pandemic, but but certainly a lot better than the post-pandemic era. And again, the ...