Nick Tamros of the Wall Street Journal. Uh, Cher Pal, I guess I'm wondering if you could explain a little bit more the divergence we see in the dot plot, particularly around the 2025 rate projections. I realize this is uh, you know, you have one group of officials that are putting down no cuts, another that are putting down more than one.Um, and again recognizing that could be difficult to summarize, but is it a matter of people having a different outlook or a different reaction function, a different commit ...

It could be a pressure cooker of a summer for the US economy, and not because of the warmer weather. Tariffs from the Trump administration don’t appear to be going anywhere anytime soon, forcing businesses to raise prices on consumers and delay key projects. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to cut interest rates amid stagflation fears. Economic data has also begun to weaken, with the latest evidence being the employment readings from the last three months. Yahoo Finance executive editor ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, adjusted net revenues were $700 million, a 19% increase year-over-year [18] - Adjusted operating income for Q1 2025 was $116 million, up 28% compared to the same period last year [18] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose to $3.49, reflecting a 64% increase year-over-year [19] - Adjusted operating margin improved to 16.6%, up from 15.4% in the prior year [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted advisory fees reached $557 million, a 29% increase year-over-year, indicating strong performance in both M&A and non-M&A advisory [19] - Underwriting revenues were $54 million, down 2% from the previous year, with lower follow-on activity but improvements in the IPO market [20] - Commissions and related revenue increased by 14% year-over-year to $55 million, driven by higher trading volumes [20] - Adjusted asset management and administration fees rose 8% year-over-year to $22 million, supported by an increase in assets under management (AUM) [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global transaction volumes increased in Q1 2025 compared to the prior year, although the number of transactions declined due to macroeconomic headwinds [12] - The private capital advisory group achieved record performance in Q1, particularly in GP-led continuation vehicles [13] - The equity capital markets business showed strong momentum, with expectations for a recovery as market volatility stabilizes [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on long-term value creation for clients and shareholders, maintaining a capital return philosophy [15] - Evercore aims to invest in talent and expand its capabilities across various sectors, including technology, healthcare, and private capital advisory [10][67] - The firm is positioned to navigate through challenging market conditions, emphasizing a diversified platform across geographies and sectors [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted increased volatility in global financial markets due to geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, impacting CEO and Board confidence levels [7][9] - There is a robust backlog of transactions, with active client dialogues indicating pent-up demand for M&A activity [9][36] - The company expects transaction levels to increase once there is greater clarity in the macroeconomic environment [9] Other Important Information - The adjusted compensation ratio for Q1 was 65.7%, slightly down from the previous year, with non-compensation expenses rising 14% year-over-year [22][23] - The company returned a record $454 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends [26] - The effective tax rate for the quarter was negative 39.7%, influenced by stock price appreciation at the time of vesting [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Backlogs and Client Types - Management expressed satisfaction with the robust and growing backlog, indicating strong engagement across various sectors, particularly in software and restructuring [36][37] Question: Outlook for Private Capital Advisory - The private capital advisory business remains strong, with continuity funds gaining traction as a method for sponsors to return capital to LPs [41][42] Question: Comparison of M&A Activity in Europe vs. the U.S. - Management noted that while there is healthy activity in Europe, it is not necessarily stronger than in the U.S., with ongoing uncertainty affecting both regions [49][50] Question: Compensation Ratio and Revenue Growth - Management indicated that revenue growth is crucial for improving the compensation ratio, with a strong backlog supporting future performance [56][57] Question: Restructuring Environment and Liability Management - The restructuring business is performing well, with no limitations on serving clients in liability management, despite concerns about high interest rates [60][61] Question: Hiring Plans in a Slower M&A Environment - The company plans to continue hiring top talent across various sectors, maintaining a consistent approach regardless of market conditions [66][67] Question: Equity Capital Markets Outlook - Management is optimistic about the equity capital markets, with a good backlog of transactions ready to proceed once market volatility decreases [70][71]

Core Insights - Private sector job growth slowed significantly in February, with only 77,000 jobs added, down from 186,000 in January, marking the lowest level of gains since July [1][2] - Concerns about policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending are contributing to hiring hesitancy among employers [2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) for January on March 11 [2] Job Openings and Labor Market Conditions - The BLS reported a decrease of 556,000 job openings in December, bringing the total to 7.6 million, down from 8.2 million at the end of November [3] - Consumer confidence has declined, affecting perceptions of current labor market conditions [3] Sector Performance - Among the 10 industry sectors tracked by ADP, six sectors experienced job gains in February, including leisure/hospitality (41,000), professional/business services (27,000), construction (26,000), financial activities (26,000), manufacturing (18,000), and other services (17,000) [4] - The four sectors that saw job losses included trade/transportation/utilities (33,000), education/health services (28,000), information (14,000), and natural resources/mining (2,000) [5] Establishment Size Impact - Small businesses (1-49 employees) lost a total of 12,000 jobs, while medium establishments (50-499 employees) added 46,000 jobs, and large establishments (500 or more employees) added 37,000 jobs [5] Wage Growth - Pay gains remained relatively unchanged in February, with job-changers experiencing a slight decrease in year-over-year pay gains from 6.8% in January to 6.7% in February, while job-stayers maintained a flat rate of 4.7% [6]