Market Trends & Economic Outlook - Bond market is performing well, while the outlook for equities is uncertain [1] - The Federal Reserve's policies are influencing the yield curve, with yields decreasing [1][2] - Concerns exist regarding the labor market data, leading to lower yields [2] - The economy is gradually slowing down, and inflation is gradually increasing, potentially influenced by tariffs [8] Labor Market Analysis - Initial jobless claims data may be overstated due to the Labor Day holiday, potentially showing an exaggerated deterioration in the labor market [4][5][6] - The labor market is described as "curious" due to a significant reduction in labor supply, indicating a still tight market despite some weakness [10] - Businesses are hesitant to hire due to uncertainty regarding tariffs, potentially freezing hiring processes [11] Inflation & Consumer Spending - CPI data shows a 5.9% monthly increase in airline fares, reflecting a K-shaped economy where some can afford higher costs while others cannot [3][7] - Motor vehicle repair costs increased by 2.4% month-over-month, contributing to inflation [7] Fiscal Policy & Stimulus - Tax cuts retroactive to January 1, 2025, are expected to provide a stimulus effect in early 2026 through increased tax refunds [13][14][15] - The average income tax refund is projected to be over $4,000 in 2026, with 70% of households receiving it, acting as a significant economic stimulus [15]

Core Insights - PwC is reducing entry-level recruitment in both the UK and US due to economic factors and the impact of AI on job roles [2][3][7] Group 1: UK Recruitment Changes - PwC UK will hire 1,300 graduates and school leavers this year, down from 1,500 last year [3] - The UK economic slowdown and decreased investment are the primary reasons for the reduced graduate intake [4] - AI is reshaping job roles, with current investments in skills offsetting more significant disruptions, though this balance may change in the future [5] Group 2: US Recruitment Changes - PwC US plans to cut graduate hiring by one-third over the next three years [8] - The decision to slow down hiring is linked to transformation efforts, AI impact, and offshoring strategies [8] - The global labor market is increasingly competitive, prompting PwC to consider a global approach to maintain competitiveness [9] Group 3: Industry Context - Other firms, such as Deloitte UK, have also reduced their graduate and apprentice hiring in recent years, indicating a broader trend in the industry [11]

New economic fears today after another US job report falls below expectations. Just 22,000 positions added in August compared to TW to 75,000 rather predicted and June numbers were also revised downward. Joining me now is Laurian Lorocco, senior editor of guests and global supply chain reporter for CNBC.Laurianne, it's good to see you again. So, let's get to the actual numbers which show a stark decline from predictions and the unemployment rate thus rose slightly to 4.3% a level not seen since 2021. What d ...

Economic Slowdown & Policy Concerns - US economy added only 22,000 jobs last month, falling below expectations, signaling potential economic slowdown due to current policies [1] - The report suggests the economy is slowing, potentially leading to rate cuts, which is not viewed as a positive situation [1] - Uncertainty surrounding tariffs and immigration policies hinders business investment and hiring [1] Key Economic Drivers & Risks - AI data centers and healthcare are the primary drivers of the American economy; a downturn in either sector could destabilize the entire structure [1] - The AI industry is showing signs of a bubble, with disappointment surrounding the launch of GPT5 compared to the impact of GPT4 two years ago [4] - Lack of fixed business investment outside of AI raises concerns about future economic growth [4] Market Dynamics & Investment - Markets are perceived as disconnected from the real economy, as investors can quickly shift investments in AI companies, while real businesses face planning difficulties due to regulatory and tariff uncertainties [1] - The dollar and US equities are benefiting from a lack of alternative investment options globally, making the US "too big to fail" [4] Political Influence & Corporate Behavior - The administration's immigration raid at a Hyundai factory, resulting in nearly 500 arrests, reflects a political strategy to justify an aggressive immigration stance [4] - Corporations are seeking ways to avoid presidential scrutiny, influencing their business decisions and interactions with the government [2] - Tech leaders are perceived as complicit with the administration, potentially compromising their independence and distorting the truth [2][3]

From New York City. For our viewers worldwide, I'm Scarlet Fu and Bloomberg Real Yield starts right now. Coming up.U.S. payrolls tumble in August with just 22,000 jobs added to the economy, sending bond yields plunging across the curve. Traders are now locking in a September Fed rate cut. We begin with the big issue.A labor market introduces another weak summer employment report. This is a continued deceleration, but there's an ongoing sort of labor market slowdown. We want a labor market that's cool and th ...

Economic Slowdown & Job Market - August jobs report shows US added only 22,000 jobs, significantly less than the expected 75,000 [1] - Unemployment rate saw a slight increase to 43% [1] - Revised figures show a job cut of 13,000 in June, marking the first net monthly decrease in jobs in America in over four years [10] - The economy is slowing down, regardless of claims to the contrary [3] Impact of Tariffs & Trade Policies - Tariffs are making business more difficult in the United States, increasing costs [4] - The promised boom of manufacturing jobs due to tariffs has not materialized; those jobs have disappeared [5] - Companies that manufacture real things and sell products to real Americans are facing difficulties, leading to layoffs or hiring pauses [7] - The President's economic plan, relying on tariffs to boost American manufacturers, is unlikely to yield short-term benefits [12][13] Market & Corporate Concerns - The stock market's performance is largely driven by a few mega-tech companies, which are less impacted by tariffs and inflation [5] - Companies like John Deere are laying people off, and Walmart has warned of rising prices [6] - Nike anticipates significant financial impact due to tariffs [6] Government & Policy - President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after a weak jobs report [2] - President Trump suggests real economic growth will only be visible in a year [7] - There is a perception that the administration ignores or manipulates statistics when they are unfavorable [9]

Industry Trend - Europe's roads are experiencing a slow-motion car crash [1]

Economic Outlook - The world's largest economy is showing resilience against repeated predictions of a slowdown [1] - The economy has consistently defied pessimistic forecasts in recent years [1]

Just as the inflationary heat is rising again in America, much of Asia is feeling a chill. It is tempting to blame Donald Trump’s tariffs, but they do not explain the economic slowdown the region has already seen in the past year https://t.co/wlcOfUOiCZ ...

Company Overview - SoFi Technologies has expanded its services beyond student loans, offering a variety of financial services to attract customers [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q2, SoFi's revenue increased by 44% year-over-year to $858 million, while earnings surged by 700% to $0.08 per share [3] - The company added a record 850,000 new members in the quarter, marking a 34% increase, bringing the total to 11.7 million members [3] - Fee-based revenue rose by 72% to $378 million due to the increase in membership [3] Future Guidance - Management raised its full-year guidance, projecting sales of approximately $3.38 billion and net income of around $370 million for 2025, up from previous estimates of $3.27 billion in sales and $325 million in net income [4] - SoFi anticipates adding at least 3 million new members in 2024, representing a 30% increase [4] Valuation Concerns - The stock is currently considered relatively expensive with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 52, compared to the S&P 500's average P/E of about 30 [5] - Despite the high valuation, many stocks are perceived as expensive in the current market environment [6] Economic Dependency - SoFi's growth is heavily reliant on a strong economy and consumer spending; any economic slowdown could impact its performance [7] - Recent job growth data indicates potential economic slowing, with only 73,000 jobs added in July and downward revisions for previous months [6] Credit Quality Indicators - SoFi's annualized charge-off rate improved from 3.31% to 2.83% in Q2, and the 90-day delinquency rate for personal loans decreased to 0.42%, indicating solid credit quality [8] Investment Consideration - Long-term investors may find SoFi stock appealing, but should be aware of the premium price and potential economic risks [9]