Market Outlook & Economic Concerns - Consumption is expected to slow down in the second half of the year [2] - Real wage income may face pressure due to hours worked and hourly earnings [3] - Big tech core businesses are sensitive to economic slowdown, potentially leading to negative operating leverage [3] - Stagflation, though not as severe as in the 1970s, could put the Federal Reserve in a difficult position [4] - Bull market psychology is present but prone to sudden breaks, with several risks in the latter half of the year [7] Inflation & Monetary Policy - Core PCE inflation is projected to be near 3% into the first half of 2026, which is not aligned with the Federal Reserve's goals [3] - The market may need to adjust expectations for rate cuts in 2026 [4] - There is a potential conflict between the Federal Reserve's desire for low inflation and the President's preference for a "red-hot" economy with strong nominal growth [13] S&P 500 & Potential Correction - The S&P 500 could potentially decline to 5500 in a significant economic slowdown, representing a mid-teens correction [9] - A milder correction could see the S&P 500 at 5750, a roughly 10% decrease [9] - Economic profits versus enterprise value to invested capital are close to levels seen in late 1999 before the market downturn [10] Investment Strategy - Investors should consider defensive, value-oriented sectors like beaten-up healthcare, waste companies, and utilities [14] - Caution is advised against being overly bullish, especially with cash needed within the next year [12]

Tourism & Economy - Las Vegas visitor numbers in June decreased by over 11% compared to the previous year, and more than 7% for the entire year [2] - Hotel room occupancy and convention attendance have decreased by tens of thousands [2] - A US tourism market decline of $125 billion is estimated for 2025 [7] - Flights into Las Vegas from Canada are down by more than 18% compared to last year [7] - Tariffs are estimated to cost the average American household $2400 per year [8] Las Vegas' Economic Position - Las Vegas tends to be an early indicator of economic slowdowns for the rest of the US [4] - Hospitality and tourism account for over a quarter of Las Vegas' workforce [5] - Las Vegas has been attempting to diversify its economy through sports and entertainment [5] Gambling Trends - Gambling revenue has not decreased this summer, despite the rise of online sports betting [6]

Economic Slowdown - China's economy experienced a broad slowdown in July [1] - Factory activity and retail sales figures were disappointing [1] - The world's second-largest economy is showing signs of losing traction [1]

Market Overview & Economic Cycle - The market briefly hit a new high for NASDAQ, but lacked strong conviction near the close [1] - The market is considered to be in the middle of a market cycle, not a late-cycle bull market, as credit spreads are not blowing out and bankers are not tightening lending standards [2][4] - The economy is slowing down, which typically leads to policy easing [2] - A slowdown environment favors higher quality mega-cap stocks, which make up a large portion of the broad index [3] Catalysts & Policy - Policy easing and a reacceleration of leading indicators, along with improved sentiment, are needed for market broadening [4] - The current policy mix, including trade and Federal Reserve policies, is contributing to a below-trend environment [5] - The Federal Reserve's policy should be more accommodative given the slowing economy, with the Fed funds rate potentially needing to be 50 to 75 basis points lower [9] Corporate Performance & Reliance on Rate Cuts - Second quarter earnings growth showed 12% year-over-year earnings growth and 6% revenue growth, indicating a strong market [7] - The market is not overly reliant on rate cuts, as much of the capex is coming from free cash flow [12][13] - Smaller capitalization companies are more sensitive to rate cuts [8][13]

Market Trends & Industry Dynamics - Chip sector and specifically Nvidia, along with mega caps, have been driving market growth since April lows, fueled by the AI trade [2] - Macro factors, in addition to trade and tariff policies, influence the tailwind for the tech sector [3] - AI adoption is in early stages but expected to significantly impact productivity, helping companies improve margins and earnings [8] Economic Factors & Potential Risks - Some softness in economic reports, particularly in the labor market, is evident [4] - Volatility may arise in chip stocks due to difficulties with China [2] - The concentration of earnings growth within a handful of stocks in the S&P 500 has been a trend for approximately 15 years, with some suggesting a need for broadening [6][7] Company Performance & Investment - Mega-cap tech companies are generating substantial cash flow and investing heavily in capital expenditures [4] - Capital expenditure reached $95 billion in the second quarter, expected to support economic growth [5] - Earnings season has generally exceeded expectations, although driven by a limited number of stocks [5]

Gold held its longest streak of gains since February, boosted by fears of a US economic slowdown that have increased haven demand, along with traders’ bets on lower interest rates https://t.co/tj6y9yDfrU ...

New Zealand’s jobless rate rose to the highest in almost five years, the latest sign of an economic slowdown that could prompt the central bank to resume interest-rate cuts https://t.co/616jpf6TJv ...

Nykredit, one of Denmark’s largest banks, slashed its outlook for the Danish economy after pharmaceutical giant Novo warned of weaker earnings growth and raised fears of a broader slowdown https://t.co/IahazWcogC ...

BLS Commissioner Firing & Data Trustworthiness - Evercore ISI认为解雇劳工统计局（BLS）局长的举动令人不安，并指出操纵数据几乎不可能，指控不实[1][2] - 市场普遍相信现有数据，这反映在十年期国债收益率和油价的下跌上，表明经济正在放缓[2] - 即使政府数据出现偏差，金融服务机构（如摩根大通、桥水和Evercore ISI）也会通过自己的调查来判断经济状况[3][4] - 批评应集中在数据收集方法和透明度上，而非指责数据被操纵以达到政治目的[5] - 未来需关注特朗普政府任命官员后，BLS数据的可靠性是否会发生变化[8][9] Economic Trends & M&A Activity - 经济出现放缓迹象，体现在油价下跌、收益率下降以及对美联储降息的预期上升[2][10] - 并购（M&A）环境正在改善，2025年的交易量指标高于2024年，但尚未恢复到2021年的高峰水平[11] - 并购活动受商业信心、金融市场走向以及整体经济稳健性的影响[12] - 2025年初的普遍预测为经济增长2%至25%，但上半年实际增长略高于1%，全年预期已降至1%至15%[14][15] - 关税和人事变动（如解雇鲍威尔）带来的不确定性导致消费者和企业犹豫不决，从而影响经济增长[13][14]

Could the debate about the firing of the BLS commissioner be taking the focus off uh what investors really need uh to think uh about jobs. Steve Leeman has a few ideas. Steve, >> good morning, Joe.Yeah, Wall Street economists were not concerned in their reports over the weekend that Friday's payroll numbers were altered for political reasons. Their real concern, the numbers are real and a s and actually signal a slowdown. Goldman Sachs writing quote Friday's payroll report brings payroll growth closer in li ...