Fiscal Policy

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支出前置,聚焦民生——1-2月财政数据解读【财通宏观•陈兴团队】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-03-24 14:41
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the trend of proactive fiscal spending in the early months of the year, with a significant focus on social welfare and public services, despite a decline in overall fiscal revenue growth. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first two months, general public budget revenue reached 4.4 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, which is below the previous year's growth of 1.3% and the budget target of 0.1% [3] - The general public budget expenditure was 4.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, slightly lower than the previous year's growth and the target of 4.4% [5] - The broad fiscal deficit reached 621.7 billion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period, indicating significant expenditure pressure amid declining revenue [2] Group 2: Focus on Social Welfare - There was a notable increase in the proportion of expenditure directed towards social welfare, education, and employment, while infrastructure spending saw a decrease [6] - The central government's expenditure growth rose to 8.6%, while local government expenditure growth fell to 2.7% [5] - Personal income tax revenue showed a rebound with a growth rate of 26.7%, reflecting marginal improvements in residents' income [4] Group 3: Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue growth recorded a decline of 10.7%, falling short of the initial budget target of 0.7% [7] - Government fund expenditure growth decreased to 1.2%, which is below the initial target of 23.1% but higher than the previous year's growth of 0.2% [7]