Core Viewpoint - Silver's lack of positive response to rising geopolitical risks compared to gold indicates that the silver trade is becoming "tired" according to Kevin Muir [1] Group 1 - The article highlights the contrasting reactions of silver and gold to geopolitical tensions, with gold showing a more robust response [1] - Kevin Muir suggests that the current state of the silver market reflects a diminishing enthusiasm among traders [1]

Jan 21 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday withdrew a threat to impose tariffs on a number of nations for their stance on Greenland, saying he had reached the outlines of a ​deal with NATO on the island's future. "Based upon this understanding, I will not be imposing the tariffs ‌that were scheduled to go into effect on February 1st," Trump wrote on Truth Social after a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte ‌in Davos. He did not give details of the deal. MARKET REACTION *U.S. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk Inc (NASDAQ:TTD) shares have reached a new 52-week low as investors react to President Trump's proposed tariffs on goods from several European countries, raising concerns about the impact on the company's advertising revenue [1][4]. Company Performance - The Trade Desk reported quarterly results in November with revenue of approximately $739 million, reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase, and earnings per share (EPS) of 45 cents, surpassing consensus expectations. The company guided for fourth-quarter revenue exceeding $840 million [5]. - Despite the positive earnings report, BofA Securities analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich maintained an Underperform rating and reduced the price target from $49 to $40, citing concerns over macroeconomic headwinds from tariffs [6]. Market Conditions - The proposed 10% tariffs on goods from key European countries could negatively affect the margins of consumer and luxury brands that heavily invest in digital advertising, which is crucial for The Trade Desk's business model [3]. - The stock is currently trading 8.5% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 10.2% below its 100-day SMA, indicating bearish momentum. Over the past 12 months, shares have decreased by 72.56% [7]. Analyst Insights - The average price target for The Trade Desk is $65.32, with a consensus rating of Buy, despite a projected 15% decline in earnings [10]. - The stock is trading at a premium P/E multiple of 40.3x, indicating a steep valuation compared to peers, while the growth potential remains strong with a score of 90.67/100 [12]. ETF Exposure - The Trade Desk has significant weight in the SmartETFs Advertising and Marketing Technology ETF (NYSE:MRAD), which could lead to automatic buying or selling of the stock based on ETF inflows or outflows [13].

Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment has led to increased volatility, with the VIX surpassing 20 for the first time since November, affecting various asset prices including Bitcoin, gold, and commodities [1] - Bitcoin's price has declined 4.8% since the previous equity market close, briefly dipping below $90,000, disappointing investors who anticipated a move towards six-digit levels [2] - Bitcoin's price movement is closely aligned with U.S. equity and bond markets, influenced by geopolitical tensions and tariff fears related to President Trump's Greenland acquisition bid [4] Group 2 - The cryptocurrency market is global, with significant capital inflows required for Bitcoin to maintain its upward trend, highlighting the potential impact of slowed capital flows on its market performance [5] - Notable investors like Michael Saylor have taken advantage of the recent dip, with Strategy reportedly adding over $2 billion to its Bitcoin holdings, marking the largest purchase in seven months [6] - Increased geopolitical risks have resulted in lower asset values across the U.S. market, contributing to significant declines in Bitcoin, equities, and bonds [8]

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping approximately 700 points (about 1.5%), the S&P 500 losing around 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite sliding nearly 1.7%, indicating a broad sell-off across Wall Street [1][17] - The Cboe Volatility Index rose above 20, its highest level since late November, reflecting increased market fear and risk aversion [1] Tariff Announcement Impact - President Trump's announcement of escalating tariffs on imports from eight NATO countries, including Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the U.K., the Netherlands, and Finland, triggered the market sell-off, with tariffs starting at 10% on February 1 and potentially rising to 25% by June 1 if no agreement is reached [4][19] - The announcement included a warning of 200% tariffs on French wines and champagne due to diplomatic tensions with France, further escalating investor concerns [5] Geopolitical Concerns - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East regarding Iran's internal unrest and strained relations with Israel, contributed to global risk concerns, affecting investor sentiment [2][14] - Iran's protests and potential military responses to U.S. or Israeli actions have raised fears of regional conflict, which could impact global energy markets and crude oil prices [15][22] Corporate Earnings and Market Sentiment - The earnings season is unfolding, with S&P 500 earnings growth expected to be between 12-15%, which could provide support if broader economic signals remain stable [3] - Technology stocks, particularly Nvidia, AMD, and Alphabet, faced significant declines of over 2% due to rising bond yields, which can increase borrowing costs and reduce future profit valuations [10][19] Safe-Haven Assets - As a result of the market turmoil, precious metals like gold and silver surged due to increased safe-haven demand, with gold trading near record highs [2][11]

Market Reaction - Gold and silver prices surged to all-time highs due to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats against European countries, prompting a shift towards safe-haven assets [1][2] - Gold reached a record price of $4,688 per ounce, with a 2% increase, while silver spiked 4% to $94.02 per ounce before settling around $93 [2] Geopolitical and Policy Risks - The rally in precious metals reflects a rapid repricing of geopolitical and policy risks rather than changes in physical supply [2] - Institutional and policy risks are driving markets towards safe-haven assets, with gold being favored as confidence in fiat currencies wanes [3] Tariff Implications - Trump announced a 10% tariff on imports from several European countries, which could rise to 25% if no agreement on Greenland is reached [4] - The European Union warned of a potential €93 billion ($108.2 billion) counter-tariff package that could be activated if U.S. tariffs proceed [5] Market Trends - The precious metals rally is compounded by existing pressures in currency and gold markets due to Trump's confrontations with the Federal Reserve [6] - Gold typically performs well during geopolitical stress, policy uncertainty, and low real interest rates, having surged 64% last year and up about 8% this year [7] Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has seen a more aggressive rally, gaining 147% in 2025 and over 30% this year, driven by its role as a safe-haven asset and its importance in industrial applications [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Commodity Outlook Update Industry Overview - The report provides an update on the outlook for energy, metals, bulks, and agricultural commodities for 2026, with a focus on oil, precious metals, aluminium, and EUAs [1] Oil Market Insights - Oil prices are expected to rally to around $70/bbl due to rising geopolitical risks related to Iran and Russia/Ukraine, alongside export disruptions from Kazakhstan, Libya, and Algeria [2] - A moderation in geopolitical risks is anticipated by the second half of 2026, with potential price pressures from a fundamental surplus and political influences ahead of the November 2026 US mid-term elections [2] Precious Metals Forecast - Silver is projected to outperform gold, with expected prices of $100/oz for silver and $5,000/oz for gold [3] - The report suggests that these price levels will provide opportunities for producers and central banks to hedge against price declines [3] Aluminium and Base Metals Outlook - Aluminium is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with a near-term price target of $3,400/t, supported by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [21] - Copper prices are forecasted to reach $14,000/t in the near term, driven by market momentum and demand expectations [25] - Nickel prices are projected to rise to $20,000/t in the short term but are expected to retreat to $16,000/t over the next 6-12 months due to supply growth and market surplus [28] Natural Gas and LNG - The report anticipates a global LNG oversupply starting in 2027, with average prices projected at $9.5/MMBtu for JKM LNG and $8.8/MMBtu for TTF in 2026 [37] - US natural gas prices may decline further due to strong production, but winter demand remains a factor [37] Agricultural Commodities - Coffee prices are expected to decline to $3.40/lb in 3 months and $3/lb in 12 months due to increasing inventories and favorable crop conditions in Brazil and Vietnam [46] EUAs and Carbon Pricing - EUAs are projected to reach €95/t as policymakers avoid direct intervention in the EU ETS, focusing on support for energy-intensive industries [44] - The EU Commission has expanded the list of eligible sectors for indirect cost compensation, reinforcing the bullish outlook for EUA prices [45] Additional Insights - The report highlights the potential for further inflows into base metals driven by macroeconomic factors and investor sentiment [19] - There is a cautionary note regarding the sustainability of current price levels beyond the first quarter of 2026, with expectations of profit-taking and market corrections [13][14] This summary encapsulates the key insights and forecasts from the commodity outlook update, providing a comprehensive overview of the expected trends and market dynamics across various sectors.

Core Viewpoint - China has officially banned cybersecurity software from several U.S. and Israeli firms, including VMware, owned by Broadcom, due to national security concerns, which is part of a broader strategy to replace Western technology with domestic alternatives [1] Group 1: Impact on Broadcom - The ban directly affects Broadcom's enterprise software ambitions, leading to potential revenue loss and diminished competitive ability against global rivals, particularly in the European Union [3] - Following the announcement, Broadcom's shares have declined over 18% from their 52-week high, indicating market reaction to the news [2] Group 2: Geopolitical and Earnings Implications - The ban increases geopolitical risk premiums, highlighting the vulnerability of American tech firms to retaliatory measures amid U.S.-China tensions, which may exert near-term earnings pressure on Broadcom [4] - This situation creates heightened uncertainty regarding Broadcom's international expansion strategy, likely sustaining downward pressure on its stock [4] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite the setback in China, Broadcom's diversified revenue base, which includes networking chips and AI accelerators, supports consistent double-digit earnings growth, making the shares still worth owning [5] - Broadcom's recent agreements, including a $10 billion deal with Anthropic and a larger deal with OpenAI, reinforce its position as a semiconductor powerhouse [6] - Analysts have raised the price target for Broadcom to $480, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 45% from current levels, indicating continued investor interest [6][7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the oil industry, specifically regarding Brent crude oil prices and geopolitical risks affecting supply and pricing dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Brent Price Forecast**: The 0-3 month price target for Brent crude oil has been upgraded to $70 per barrel from the previous range of $55-65 per barrel, driven by rising geopolitical risks, particularly related to Iran and Russia/Ukraine [1][2][6] 2. **Geopolitical Risks**: Increased tensions in Iran and ongoing conflicts involving Russia and Ukraine are contributing to a higher geopolitical risk premium, which is expected to support oil prices in the near term [1][7] 3. **Iranian Oil Production**: Iran's crude oil production is approximately 3.9 million barrels per day (b/d), with exports around 1.3 million b/d. Protests in Iran could lead to supply disruptions, particularly if oil-rich regions like Khuzestan are affected [2][3] 4. **Oil Inventories**: Current oil inventories are at comfortable levels, with OECD stocks at approximately 1,144 million barrels, which is up 42 million barrels year-over-year. However, a 1-2 million b/d outage could quickly deplete spare capacity and push prices higher [2] 5. **Political Unrest**: While protests have intensified in urban centers, they have not significantly impacted Iran's core oil production areas, thus limiting immediate supply disruptions [3] 6. **US Policy Impact**: The US administration's policies, including tariffs on nations trading with Iran, are amplifying short-term price volatility without significantly altering core oil flows. A stock build of 1.6 million b/d is expected through the first half of 2026 [6] 7. **Market Dynamics**: Despite the geopolitical tensions, global oil supply is projected to increase by 1.8 million b/d this year, suggesting that any price rally may be temporary. Recommendations include selling Brent crude if prices exceed $70 per barrel [7] Additional Important Information - The report emphasizes the potential for producer hedging in response to price spikes, as OPEC+ has the capacity to increase supply if significant disruptions occur [1] - The analysis indicates that while geopolitical risks are currently high, the fundamentals of the oil market remain looser compared to previous crises, suggesting a more stable long-term outlook [1][7]

Core Viewpoint - Spot Gold (XAU/USD) has entered a price-discovery phase, reaching new records around $4,630, indicating a strong uptrend despite recent volatility [1][4][17] Technical Analysis - XAU/USD is currently in overbought territory with a 4-hour RSI around 65, showing signs of bearish divergence, while MACD indicates cooling upside momentum [2][10] - Immediate support is at $4,555, with further support levels at $4,500 and $4,440, while resistance is noted at $4,625–$4,640 and the next target at $4,714 [3][14] - Major institutions project gold prices to reach between $4,450 and $5,050 over the next 12–18 months, with a consensus around $5,000 for 2026 [9][17] Macro Drivers - The current gold price is influenced by US inflation expectations, with consensus predicting a 0.3% month-on-month rise in CPI, keeping year-on-year inflation near 2.7% [4][14] - Global debt levels are at approximately $346 trillion, about 310% of world GDP, which raises concerns about fiat currency stability and increases gold's appeal as a hedge [6][7] Geopolitical Factors - Civil unrest in Iran and new US tariff threats are contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe haven, reflecting a structural premium in XAU/USD [5][17] - The political landscape surrounding the Federal Reserve, including potential charges against Chair Powell, adds to the uncertainty, further supporting gold prices [4][17] Market Dynamics - Central banks and ETFs are driving demand for gold, with annual purchases reaching around 700 tonnes, establishing a structural floor under demand [8][17] - The shift to percentage-based margins for gold futures by the CME indicates a recognition of increased volatility and the need for more collateral, impacting speculative positions [11][10] Equity Market Response - Gold mining equities are reflecting the gold price movement, with companies like Barrick Mining and Newmont showing significant gains as gold prices rise [12][17] - The upcoming earnings reports from mining companies will be critical in assessing how much of the gold rally translates into free cash flow and dividends [13][17]