新华财经北京1月5日电 上周（2025年12月29日至2026年1月4日）跨年资金价格有所走高，但公开市场 节前加大逆回购净投放力度，资金面仍维持均衡。对开年政府债供给的担忧令债市情绪偏向空头，收益 率曲线出现较明显抬升。《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》正式落地，对债基赎回费率等相 关规定较此前征求意见稿有所放宽，缓冲期也延长至12个月，有助债基赎回压力释放。 本周公开市场逆回购到期规模超过2.4万亿元，2026年地方债发行也将于周一启动，资金面承压下，央 行投放情况将是债市投资者本周关注重点。 行情回顾 具体来看，周一，债市期现全面大跌，长端及超长端明显承压，周末公布央行金融稳定报告与全国财政 工作会议消息推升市场对积极财政政策预期，30年期债盘中跌超1%，10年期国债250016收益率上行 2.25BP至1.858%。周二，债市空头情绪有所消化，全天维持震荡走势，250016收益率上行0.2BP至 1.86%。周三，统计局公布12月PMI超预期升至扩张区间，长端收益率继续上行，250016收益率创阶段 新高1.8675%，午后随配置盘入市收益率回落至1.85%，全天下行1BP。周日为调休工作日，中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Louis Navellier maintains a bullish outlook for the stock market in 2026, expecting double-digit returns despite concerns about stagflation and recession risks in the U.S. economy [5]. Economic Indicators - Effective tariff rates have increased significantly to 16.8% from 2.4% in January, the highest level since 1935, contributing to rising inflation [3]. - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.6% from a low of 3.4% in 2023, with layoffs exceeding 1.1 million, marking a 54% increase from the previous year [6]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has been on the sidelines but cut rates at three consecutive FOMC meetings in September, October, and December due to job losses [3]. - Navellier argues that the Fed should cut key interest rates four more times in 2026 to achieve a neutral rate, suggesting that further cuts may be necessary if deflationary pressures increase [7]. Market Outlook - Despite various economic challenges, Navellier believes that the headwinds from tariffs and inflation are temporary, paving the way for profit-friendly rate cuts, higher GDP, and share price gains [4]. - The forecast for 2026 includes expectations for another year of double-digit returns, contrasting with prevailing bear-market concerns [5].

The Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas brings heightened focus to semiconductor leaders as Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang and AMD (AMD) CEO Lisa Su deliver keynote speeches that could determine AI infrastructure sector sentiment heading into 2026. Huang's presentation will be scrutinized for announcements about next-generation AI accelerators beyond the Blackwell architecture, data center roadmaps, and any commentary about customer demand sustainability following recent concerns about return on AI capit ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of reviewing investment plans for 2026, highlighting factors such as tariffs, interest rates, and the AI boom that significantly impacted investments in 2025 [1] Investment Plan Overview - An investment plan tailored for the average American was created, considering a median income of $62,192 per year for full-time workers [2] - Recommendations include building an emergency fund and paying down debt before making substantial investments, along with setting goals and establishing a time horizon [3] Recommended Investment Allocation - The suggested core portfolio allocation for 2026 includes: - U.S. Stocks: 45% (Vanguard Total Stock Market - VTI) for long-term growth - International Stocks: 15% (Vanguard Total International - VXUS) for global diversification - U.S. Bonds: 25% (Vanguard Total Bond Market - BND) for stability and income - REITs/Real Estate: 10% (Vanguard Real Estate - VNQ) as an inflation hedge - Cash/Treasury bills: 5% for liquidity and safety [4][5] Monthly Investment Plan - A monthly investment plan is proposed with a contribution of $900, or approximately 17% of income, allocated as follows: - 401(k) – S&P 500 Index: 40% ($360) - Roth IRA – Target-Date 2060 Fund: 35% ($315) - Brokerage – International ETF (VXUS): 10% ($90) - Brokerage – REIT (VNQ): 10% ($90) - High-Yield Savings/T-Bills: 5% ($45) [6][7] 2026 Economic Outlook - Key economic trends to monitor in 2026 include: - Interest rates may decline by mid-2026, positively affecting stocks and bonds - Inflation is expected to stabilize between 2.5% and 3% - Real estate may slowly rebound as mortgage rates ease - AI, clean energy, and infrastructure are identified as key growth sectors [8][9]

December FOMC minutes echo Powell, not hawks 30 Dec 2025 15:25:11 ET │ 8 pages US Economics CITI'S TAKE The minutes of the December FOMC meeting were mostly unsurprising but leave us expecting more dovish risks in 2026. Consistent with December dots, "most" participants expect further rate cuts while "some" want to keep rates on hold for "some time". But rather than comments on the path of policy rates, it was Chair Powell's characterization of employment and inflation that was dovish at the meeting itself. ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its economic projections, focusing on interest rate policies and inflation expectations. Core Insights and Arguments - **Interest Rate Cuts**: Most FOMC participants supported the December rate cut, with expectations to continue lowering rates into 2026 if inflation aligns with projections [2][4][8] - **Diverse Opinions**: A few participants expressed concerns about the labor market data justifying a rate cut, indicating a split in opinions among the members [3][8] - **Inflation Concerns**: Despite inflation remaining above target, most participants anticipated further rate cuts if inflation decreases as expected [4][8] - **Labor Market Outlook**: There is a notable concern regarding the labor market, with many participants indicating that a neutral policy stance could help prevent significant deterioration in labor conditions [3][9] - **Balance Sheet Discussion**: The FOMC approved "Reserve Management Purchases" to manage reserve balances in the banking system, addressing tensions in repo markets [10] Important but Overlooked Content - **Economic Projections**: The December summary of economic projections indicates a change in real GDP expected at 1.7% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026, with unemployment rates projected to decrease slightly over the years [6] - **Volatility in Claims**: Initial claims for unemployment insurance are expected to rise slightly, reflecting seasonal volatility around the holidays [11][14] - **Manufacturing Index**: The FRB of Dallas manufacturing index fell to -10.9, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector for five consecutive months [19][23] - **Pending Home Sales**: The pending home sales index rose by 3.3% in November, although it remains historically low, indicating a mixed outlook for the housing market [27] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the FOMC's stance on interest rates, inflation, and economic projections, along with additional insights into the labor market and housing sector dynamics.

Economics Americas ab Global Research 29 December 2025 US Economic Perspectives US Inflation Monthly: Unbiasing the CPI Published core CPI dropped to 2.63%; ex-shutdown we estimate 3.00% Strong monthly increases as November bias reverses: December core CPI 0.44% Core PCE inflation: 2.8% in 2025E, 3.0% in 2026E, 2.4% in 2027E, 2.0% in 2028E Alan Detmeister Economist alan.detmeister@ubs.com +1-212-713 1222 Jonathan Pingle Economist jonathan.pingle@ubs.com +1-212-713 2225 Abigail Watt Economist abigail.watt@ub ...

31 December 2025 | 12:58PM EST Economics Research Global Economics Wrap-Up: December 31, 2025 Global Economics 12/31/25 10:42AM ET US Economics 12/31/25 12:00PM ET Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Joseph Briggs +1(212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton ...

Economic Indicators and Employment Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release November job openings, quitting, and layoffs data, alongside the December jobs report [2] - Economists project that approximately 60,000 jobs were added in December, resulting in a total of about 670,000 jobs added for 2025, significantly lower than the 2 million jobs added in 2024 [5] - The jobless rate is expected to decrease to 4.5% in December from a four-year high, indicating a modest employment growth trend [5] Inflation Trends - In the euro zone, inflation reports for Germany and France are due, with expectations that the headline inflation will stabilize at 2% and core inflation at 2.4% [6][7] - Switzerland's inflation is predicted to slightly increase to 0.1% after an unexpected drop to zero in November, which aligns with the central bank's forecast [11] - Australia's CPI figures are expected to show a modest easing of inflation, remaining above the central bank's target, which will influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy stance [14] Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy, with upcoming data likely supporting the stabilization of inflation at target levels [7][8] - In Latin America, central banks in Chile, Peru, and Mexico may consider mild adjustments to monetary policy, while Brazil is positioned for aggressive unwinding of rates [17][18] - Peru's central bank may hold rates at 4.25% due to inflation running below the target range, reflecting a cautious approach amid upcoming elections [19] Sector-Specific Insights - The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence is seen as a limiting factor for payroll growth, as companies focus on enhancing productivity [3] - Employers have slowed hiring in 2025, indicating a stabilization in job openings and a cautious approach to additional hiring due to government trade-policy announcements [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson indicated that further rate cuts by the central bank may be delayed as officials assess the economy's performance following last year's easing measures [1][2]. Economic Outlook - Paulson forecasts inflation to moderate, the labor market to stabilize, and growth to be around 2% for the year [2]. - She expressed cautious optimism regarding inflation, suggesting a potential end-of-year inflation rate close to 2% as tariff-related price adjustments conclude [5]. Interest Rate Policy - The current funds rate is viewed as somewhat restrictive, still working to alleviate inflation pressures [3]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the interest rate target by 0.75 percentage points last year, now set between 3.5% and 3.75% [3][4]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of deceleration but is not breaking, with both supply and demand factors contributing to the hiring situation [6]. - Close attention is warranted on the hiring front as the year progresses [6].