The escalating financial strains of two Brazilian companies have sent bondholders racing to the exits and sown fear that more businesses will be driven to the brink by the nation’s highest interest rates in two decades https://t.co/SWZxegCJ4d ...

Earnings Reports - More than half of the S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings, with 79% beating expectations, indicating strong performance [2] - S&P earnings growth is projected to increase by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth [2] - Excluding the Magnificent Seven technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to rise by +4.6% [2] Economic Indicators - January nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +68,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4% [3] - January average hourly earnings are anticipated to rise by +0.3% month-over-month and +3.7% year-over-year [3] - December retail sales were unchanged month-over-month, falling short of expectations of +0.4% [4] - The Q4 employment cost index rose by +0.7% quarter-over-quarter, the smallest increase in 4.5 years [4] Stock Market Movements - Cybersecurity stocks are performing well, with Atlassian up more than +4% and Zscaler up more than +3% [10] - AI-infrastructure stocks are under pressure, with Western Digital down more than -8% [11] - Ichor Holdings is up more than +34% after forecasting Q1 adjusted EPS significantly above consensus [12] - Spotify is up more than +17% after reporting a record 38 million monthly active users, exceeding expectations [12] Company Forecasts - Credo Technology Group is up more than +10% after forecasting preliminary Q3 revenue well above consensus [13] - Masco is up more than +9% after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS above consensus [13] - Coca-Cola is down more than -1% after reporting Q4 net revenue below consensus [16]

I want to bring in Kamal Sri Kumar who is president of Sri Kumar Global Strategies and covering the equity angle for us this morning is Sylvia Jablonsky. She's chief investment officer of Defiance ETFs. Uh very quickly, Sylvia, just looking at the futures, they paired their losses modestly.I mean, we were down 25, now we're down about four or five. So, not not a big move. Uh but this is pretty important data and it's just the kickoff of what we're getting this week.>> Yeah, absolutely. I think it is a very ...

Core Insights - The dollar index has decreased to a one-week low, down by 0.05%, primarily due to falling T-note yields following weaker-than-expected US economic reports, which has raised expectations for a potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The US Q4 employment cost index increased by 0.7% quarter-over-quarter, which is below the expected 0.8% and marks the smallest rise in 4.5 years [2] - US December retail sales remained unchanged month-over-month, falling short of the anticipated 0.4% increase, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [3] Economic Indicators - The swaps market is pricing in a 22% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 17-18, with expectations of a total interest rate cut of about 50 basis points by 2026 [4] - The euro has slightly decreased by 0.09% following a dovish statement from the European Central Bank, which suggested that lower interest rates could alleviate inflation and growth pressures caused by higher US tariffs [5] - The yen has appreciated by 0.97% against the dollar, reaching a one-week high, driven by positive signals from the Japanese economy, particularly a significant rise in machine tool orders [6]

The dollar may fall 10% this year as there’s a risk the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more deeply than markets anticipate once the next chair of the central bank takes over, according to State Street's Lee Ferridge https://t.co/XmRnfrGwd1 ...

🚨BREAKING: "INTEREST RATES ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO COME DOWN"The CEO of Bank of America, Brian Moynihan, has shared his belief that US interest rates will continue to fall, despite negative market sentiment. https://t.co/91QiduTXYB ...

Brazil’s inflation picked up in January, bolstering expectations that the Central Bank will move cautiously as it prepares to cut interest rates https://t.co/zrIPiOi5Al ...

If the Reform UK leader wants to raise taxes on bank profits, there are easier ways to do it than scrapping interest rates on central-bank reserves https://t.co/vnxOXvIzds ...

Earnings Overview - More than half of the S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings, with 79% of the 297 companies beating expectations [1] - S&P earnings growth is projected to increase by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth [1] - Excluding the Magnificent Seven technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to rise by +4.6% [1] Market Focus - The upcoming week will focus on corporate earnings results and economic news, including the Q4 employment cost index expected to rise by 0.8% [2] - January retail sales are anticipated to increase by +0.4% month-over-month, with similar expectations for sales excluding autos [2] - January nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by +69,000, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.4% [2] Stock Market Movements - Stock indexes initially fell but recovered, with the Dow Jones Industrials reaching a new all-time high [5] - The S&P 500 Index closed up +0.47%, the Dow Jones up +0.04%, and the Nasdaq 100 up +0.77% [5] - Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks rebounded, contributing to the market's recovery [5][11] Sector Performance - Mining stocks surged after gold prices increased by +2% and silver prices jumped by more than +6% [12] - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO) saw gains of more than +3%, while Nvidia (NVDA) and others also performed well [11] - Oracle (ORCL) rose by more than +9% following an upgrade, while Dynatrace (DT) reported better-than-expected Q3 revenue and raised its full-year forecast [13][14] Notable Declines - Kyndryl Holdings (KD) fell more than -55% after reporting Q3 revenue below expectations and cutting its profit forecast [16] - Monday.com (MNDY) dropped more than -21% due to a revenue forecast below consensus [16] - Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) and Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) also experienced significant declines following disappointing earnings reports [16]

Macro Economic Outlook - The current macroeconomic environment is described as nuanced, influenced by various factors including geopolitics, fiscal deficits, and public policy [1] - The company has strategically invested in resources across these areas, positioning itself favorably to navigate the complexities of the current economic moment [1] Future Activity Projections - There is an expectation of increased transaction activity in 2026, indicating a positive outlook for future market engagement [2]