JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says tariffs are making the US "strong and rich." ...

🇺🇸TRUMP JUST SAID RECIPROCAL TARIFFS WILL TAKE EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT AND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TO FLOW IN THE US. https://t.co/L9rr7pRSOS ...

Politicization and weaponization of the Fed and key economic jobs could make it harder for President Trump to get his nominees confirmed by the Senate. For more on this, we want to bring in Libby Cantrell, who is head of public policy at PIMCO. Libby, it's it's kind of hard to think of the president getting shut down over an economic appointee, particularly given how much power he's had and how much sway he has had with the Senate controlled House and Senate lately.But why do you think things are going to b ...

Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials维持利率不变 [1] - Federal Reserve下调对美国经济的评估 [1] - 这表明决策者可能更接近降低借贷成本 [1]

High interest rates are holding the US economy back from an even bigger economic boom we should be experiencing right now.Cut interest rates and unleash economic prosperity of the American capitalism machine. ...

US-China Trade Relations - The US expressed concerns about China's global overcapacity and purchases of sanctioned Iranian oil, which account for approximately 90% of Iran's oil sales [2] - The US also expressed concerns about China selling approximately $15 billion of dual-use technologies to Russia [2] - The US reiterated its trade policy goals of reducing US deficits, increasing manufacturing, and reshoring the economy [3] - The US aims to "derisk" rather than "decouple" from China, focusing on strategic industries like rare earths, semiconductors, and medicines [5] - Discussions included accelerating the flow of rare earth magnets from China to US companies [4] - China had previously blocked all of their rare earth magnets, but now the US is receiving them [17] Trade Imbalances and Tariffs - China's economy is described as the most unbalanced in modern times, with 30% of global manufacturing and a 2% current account surplus of global GDP [13] - The US is tracking an annual trade deficit with China, but it is expected to be at least $50 billion smaller this year [15] - Section 232 investigations on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors will be applied globally, without targeting any specific country [16] - Potential tariffs on countries buying sanctioned Russian oil could range from 0% to 500%, with the US Senate considering a bill to grant the president discretion to apply secondary tariffs [37] Potential Tariff Pause and Future Discussions - A potential pause on tariff increases is under discussion, with a possible duration of 90 days [9][42] - If the pause is not extended, tariffs could revert to a 34% level, potentially reaching 80-85% depending on the product [18][20] - Further technical discussions are ongoing between the US and Chinese teams [10] - A phone call between President Xi and President Trump occurred in June, during which President Xi invited President Trump to Beijing [22][23] US Economic Outlook - The US economy is performing well, with the biggest downturn in inflation in four years observed in May [33][34] - The US is expected to receive a minimum of $300 billion in tariff income this year, representing 1% of GDP [41]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy and corporate earnings, particularly focusing on how these costs are absorbed by different stakeholders [1][4][7]. Core Insights - **Tariff Cost Absorption**: Tariff costs are being absorbed by foreign exporters, domestic firms, or consumers. Currently, evidence suggests that domestic firms are absorbing these costs, as consumer price increases have been modest [1][4][5][7]. - **Consumer Price Trends**: There has been limited pass-through of tariff costs to consumers, with no significant tariff-related inflation observed in May. However, June saw abnormal price increases in specific categories like home furnishings and toys, indicating potential inventory sell-offs by firms [5][6]. - **Foreign Exporters' Burden**: The data does not indicate significant absorption of tariff costs by foreign firms. A stronger dollar typically lowers import prices, but the dollar has weakened since the tariffs were announced, limiting the expected decline in import prices [6][7]. - **Corporate Earnings Outlook**: The burden of tariffs on domestic firms is expected to be reflected in upcoming corporate earnings announcements. Companies may express uncertainty regarding the shifting burden of tariffs in the coming months [7]. Economic Indicators - **Existing Home Sales**: A forecast of 3.95 million existing home sales in June, a decline from previous months, is anticipated. This trend is expected to continue in the near term [8]. - **Jobless Claims**: Initial jobless claims are projected to rise to 233,000, indicating a potential increase in unemployment claims but remaining within recent historical ranges [8]. - **Manufacturing and Services PMI**: The Manufacturing PMI is expected to increase to 53.8, while the Services PMI is projected to rise to 53.5, suggesting a slight uptick in growth within these sectors despite elevated interest rates and higher input costs due to tariffs [8]. - **Durable Goods Orders**: A significant drop of 9.4% in durable goods orders is expected in June, following a substantial increase in May, indicating normalization after a spike in aircraft orders [10]. Additional Insights - **Market Volatility**: The report highlights the volatility in oil prices and its potential impact on economic conditions, although specific data on oil prices was not detailed in the call [14]. - **Financial Conditions**: The financial conditions index remains within recent ranges, suggesting stability in the financial environment despite the challenges posed by tariffs and inflation [25]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications of tariffs on the economy, consumer prices, corporate earnings, and various economic indicators.

Hedge funds are ramping up bets against the shares of smaller companies after a searing rally, as doubts linger about the resilience of the US economy in the face of a global trade war https://t.co/1aemuT7xbC ...

Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The former World Bank president suggests the Fed's interest rates are too high and need to be cut, advocating for a remaking of their models to welcome growth [1] - The analysis indicates that current Fed models inherently limit growth, hindering wage growth and manufacturing job creation [1][9] - The report mentions that Europe is running at very slow growth, practically a recession all the time [1] Fiscal Policy & Debt - The report argues against raising taxes, suggesting extending current tax rates to avoid a tax increase and promote growth [2][3] - The analysis claims that financial markets are reacting positively to the bill because it gives stability in the tax code [10] - The report acknowledges the US government debt is a big problem [6] - The report claims that the additional $33 trillion (3300 billion) in debt is based on a static model that doesn't account for growth impact [5][7] Political Context - The report suggests that Fed chair Jay Powell's comments on tariffs were influenced by an anti-Trump sentiment in Europe [1] - The report claims that the CBO models and joint tax committee models were all put in by Biden [3] - The report claims that all of Washington DC is complicit in making the government bigger and bigger [10]

Threat Landscape - Iran-affiliated hackers pose a potential threat to critical sectors of the US economy [1]