Breaking: Hiring slowed as the U.S. economy added 73,000 jobs in July. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. https://t.co/g2bBwxVmsZ ...

Economic Activity & Demand - Final sales to private domestic purchasers slowed to a 12% gain in Q2 from 19% in Q1, suggesting softening underlying demand [1] - First half profit domestic final purchases were 16%, while GDP was 12% for the same period [3] - GDP is considered bumpy quarter to quarter and often gets revised [3] Labor Market - The unemployment rate is at 41% [4] - Wages are at a healthy level, moving closer to long-run sustainable levels consistent with productivity and 2% inflation [4] - The labor market is still quite solid [4] Inflation - Headline inflation was 21% and core inflation was 25% [2] - Inflation is above target, even ignoring tariffs [5] Monetary Policy - The speaker is trying to do the right thing in a challenging situation, being pulled in two directions [5] - At some point, if risks are equally balanced, a neutral policy stance would be desirable, which is not the case currently [6] - The speaker is not committing to a rate cut in September and will need to see more data on inflation and employment [2][6] - Judgments will be based on all data and a balance of risks analysis [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **US Economic Outlook**: The US economy is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with projections indicating a rebound in Q2 GDP by 2.8% QoQ SAAR after a contraction in Q1. However, underlying growth is expected to slow further in the second half of the year [doc id='75'][doc id='21']. Core Economic Indicators - **Labor Market**: Job growth is projected at 100k for July, with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. The labor market shows signs of weakness, with low hiring rates and an increase in jobless claims indicating downside risks to employment [doc id='28'][doc id='15'][doc id='19']. - **Inflation Trends**: Core PCE inflation is expected to rise modestly by 2.3% QoQ in Q2, aligning with a slowdown towards the 2% target. Tariffs are anticipated to have a temporary impact on goods prices, with a 0.3% increase in core goods prices likely in June [doc id='76'][doc id='58']. Trade Agreements and Tariffs - **Trade Deals**: The US has reached a preliminary trade agreement with Japan, setting a tariff rate at 15%, which is lower than the global auto tariff of 25%. A similar approach is expected with other major trading partners [doc id='4'][doc id='5']. - **Tariff Implications**: Tariffs are set to increase on August 1st for several countries, with expectations that larger trading partners like the EU may avoid significant tariff hikes due to ongoing negotiations [doc id='29']. Housing Market Insights - **Housing Affordability**: High interest rates and home prices have made housing unaffordable, leading to low sales of new and existing homes. The sector is expected to contract further, with residential construction spending declining [doc id='13'][doc id='66']. - **Home Prices**: Case Shiller home prices have shown a decline on a month-to-month basis, indicating weak demand relative to supply. This trend is expected to continue, contributing to slowing shelter inflation [doc id='74']. Manufacturing Sector Performance - **Manufacturing Activity**: The S&P manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, indicating contraction. Business fixed investment is expected to grow modestly, with durable goods orders showing mixed signals [doc id='23'][doc id='77']. Employment and Wage Trends - **Employment Cost Index**: The employment cost index is projected to increase by 0.8% QoQ, reflecting easing labor market conditions. Wage growth is expected to slow amidst weakening demand for labor [doc id='64'][doc id='42']. - **Labor Force Participation**: The labor force participation rate is expected to decline to 62.2%, with a significant portion of this decline attributed to discouraged workers [doc id='47']. Conclusion - The US economy is facing a complex landscape characterized by slowing growth, rising unemployment, and inflationary pressures from tariffs. The housing market remains weak, and manufacturing activity is contracting, indicating potential challenges ahead for economic recovery.

Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The US economy is showing signs of strength with improved sentiment and strong retail sales [1] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is perceived to be in a comfortable position to observe economic developments before making policy changes, given the unemployment rate is near the natural rate and inflation is moderating [2] - The Fed is expected to re-engage with its recalibration campaign, potentially starting in September, to further lower rates [4] - The committee anticipates the neutral rate to be around 3%, suggesting further room for rate cuts [10] - A more realistic estimate for the neutral rate might be 325% to 350%, allowing the Fed some flexibility [11] - The Fed aims to bring inflation down to the lower end of the 2% range and ideally asymptote to 2% [11] Inflation & Fed's Response - The Fed's 2022 policy of sharply increasing the policy rate successfully reduced inflation without causing a recession [6] - The Fed's actions were followed globally, with some emerging markets even anticipating and moving ahead of the Fed [8] Fiscal Policy Impact - Some believe the Fed misplayed the 2021 episode, partly due to substantial expenditure authorized by Congress and the White House, which fueled inflation [6]

Labor Market Trends - The Wall Street Journal published an article highlighting the difficulty college graduates face in securing employment [1] - AI is negatively impacting entry-level job opportunities [1] - The unemployment rate has increased from a recent low of 4% to over 6%, specifically 63% or 64% [1] - The labor differential indicates it is becoming more challenging to find employment [2] - Continuing unemployment claims are rising, suggesting that individuals who are already unemployed are struggling to find new jobs [2] Job Seeker Strategies - Individuals considering a job change or seeking employment should prioritize focusing on AI-related skills [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on near-term growth momentum despite a strong GDP print, suggesting the need for more policy stimulus to boost investment demand and support the labor market [6]. Core Insights - China's 2Q25 GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly below the 5.4% growth in 1Q25, but above market consensus of 5.1% [1][8]. - Industrial production (IP) showed a surprising increase to 6.8% in June, driven by resilient export activities, with manufacturing IP accelerating to 7.4% [3][8]. - Retail sales growth moderated to 4.8% in June, lower than the previous month and consensus expectations, indicating potential weakness in domestic demand [4][8]. - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth slowed to 2.8% year-to-date, with a significant contraction in property investment at -11.2% year-on-year [5][8]. - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, with disposable income per capita increasing by 5.1% year-on-year [10][11]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - 2Q25 GDP growth was reported at 5.2% year-on-year, with a sequential increase of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter [1][8]. - In the first half of 2025, real GDP growth reached 5.3%, surpassing the annual policy target of "around 5%" [1]. Industrial Production - IP growth rose to 6.8% in June from 5.8% in May, with manufacturing IP accelerating to 7.4% [3][8]. - Growth was observed in 36 out of 41 industries, with notable increases in industrial robots and integrated circuits [3]. Retail Sales - Retail sales increased by 4.8% year-on-year in June, down from 6.3% in May, influenced by earlier promotions and subsidy halts [4][8]. - Catering services saw a significant slowdown, with growth dropping to 0.9% year-on-year [4]. Fixed Asset Investment - FAI growth moderated to 2.8% year-to-date, with a single-month growth of only 0.5% year-on-year [5][8]. - Property investment continued to decline sharply, with a contraction of -11.2% year-on-year [5]. Labor Market and Income - The urban unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.0% in June, with average weekly hours worked at 48.5 [10][11]. - Disposable income per capita reached RMB 9,661 in 2Q, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year increase [11].

Market Trend & Prediction - The analysis suggests that all Bitcoin pairs are likely to reach range lows, potentially driven by liquidity conditions and retail consumer behavior [4][6][10] - The analyst anticipates a potential 20% drop in Bitcoin valuations for altcoins [13][17] - The report notes a possible short-term bounce in the summer, but the eventual outcome is expected to be the range lows [22][23] - The analysis draws parallels to historical data, suggesting a potential low in late October or early November [9][10] Macroeconomic Factors - The analyst suggests that a low unemployment rate of 41% might delay interest rate cuts, potentially impacting higher-risk assets [7][21] - The report indicates a shift in the probability of rate cuts, with a reduced chance of a cut in July (from 25% to 5%) and an increased chance of no cut in September (from 5% to 333%) [7] Altcoin Performance - The analysis highlights that while altcoins may have performed better in USD valuations, they have underperformed against Bitcoin [14][15] - The report questions the value of altcoin USD gains if they continue to bleed against Bitcoin [16] Technical Analysis - The analyst points out that every rally has met with a lower high, indicating a potential breakdown [17] - The analysis references specific Bitcoin pair valuations, noting a move from 031% to a potential 025% [18] - The report includes USDC in the analysis, showing a valuation of 029% and suggesting further downside [19]

Labor Market Overview - Unemployment rate decreased to 41% [1] - Job creation was significantly influenced by state and local government hiring [2] - Monthly job reports can be volatile and influenced by factors such as teacher hiring cycles [3] Economic Outlook & Policy Impact - Tax bill passage is expected to accelerate private sector growth [4] - Companies have been hesitant to invest due to uncertainty surrounding the tax bill [4] - Full expensing on equipment and factories is anticipated to stimulate capital expenditure (capex) [5] - Increased capex is expected to lead to construction jobs and subsequent hiring for new plants [5]

Employment & Economic Growth - The US economy added 147,000 jobs in June, exceeding expectations [1] - The unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.1% [1][4] - Average hourly earnings show a 3.7% growth over the past year, indicating compensation for employed individuals [2][11] - The first quarter GDP number came in at 0.5%, indicating a not strong but not weak economy [15] Sector Performance - State government jobs were a significant driver of job growth, contrasting with weaker private sector job growth [3] - The healthcare sector, including residential care facilities and nursing homes, consistently drives employment [6] - Federal government jobs decreased by 7,000, totaling 69,000 cuts so far [5] - Mining, quarrying, manufacturing, and wholesale trade experienced little change, aligning with expectations given trade policy uncertainty [7] Monetary Policy & Consumer Behavior - The possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month decreased from 25% to approximately 2%, suggesting a relatively strong economy [8] - Wage growth was slightly below expectations at 0.2% compared to the expected 0.3% [10] - There's a bifurcation in the labor market, with employed individuals experiencing decent wage growth, while recently unemployed or graduated individuals face some weakness [12] - Consumers are saving more, potentially slowing down spending and economic activity [13][14]

Uh Rick Santelli is at the CME in Chicago. I don't know what you think about July possibly being a live meeting based on these numbers, but sub 50 um in terms of additions seems to be the uh the number that could make it live in the markets. Anything's possible.We'll know shortly. Obviously, this is the big June job job jobs report. I wouldn't look for this to make an easy more likely 147,000 jobs.Definitely bit better than expected. No matter what your range was, whether it was closer to 100 or 115,000, it ...