us. And we've got some breaking news. The July jobs report was released just moments ago and it shows that the United States added 73,000 jobs last month. That is less than the 100,000 that economists had expected. The unemployment rate saw a slight increase to 4.2%. The report also revealed job totals for June and May were revised much lower, down a combined 258,000 from the previous announced levels. That's significant. Joining us now, NBC News senior business analyst and host of the 11th hour, our friend ...

We are back with some breaking economic data. The US economy added 73,000 jobs in July. That was less than expected.The unemployment rate came in at 4.2%. Investipedia's editor-inchief Caleb Silver here to talk more about the numbers and what they mean to you. So, just walk us through what we're seeing and and what they say about our economy right now.Yeah, well, that was less than expected. We're expecting around 100,000 jobs given the past few months. We've had really strong job growth, we thought, but we ...

Employment Data - US nonfarm payrolls increased by 73 thousand in July [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 42 percent [1]

Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, the lowest rate of the year [1] - The two-month revision showed a decrease of 258,000 jobs [1] - The unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 4.2%, marking the fourth time this year at this level [3] - Labor force participation rate came in at 62.2%, 0.1% lower than the previous reading and expectations [3] - The underemployment rate (U6) is at 7.9%, matching the level in March [4] Wage and Hours - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month [2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-over-year, 0.1% higher than expected [2] - Hours worked increased by 0.1% to 34.3% [2] Market Reaction - Interest rates are moving lower, likely due to the significant revision in job numbers [4] - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by approximately 0.07% (seven basis points) on the week, settling around 4.32% [5] - The two-year Treasury yield decreased by approximately 0.10% (ten basis points) [5] Government Perspective - The current administration is trying to reduce the size of government, which may impact government hiring figures in the report [8]

Breaking: Hiring slowed as the U.S. economy added 73,000 jobs in July. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. https://t.co/g2bBwxVmsZ ...

Economic Activity & Demand - Final sales to private domestic purchasers slowed to a 12% gain in Q2 from 19% in Q1, suggesting softening underlying demand [1] - First half profit domestic final purchases were 16%, while GDP was 12% for the same period [3] - GDP is considered bumpy quarter to quarter and often gets revised [3] Labor Market - The unemployment rate is at 41% [4] - Wages are at a healthy level, moving closer to long-run sustainable levels consistent with productivity and 2% inflation [4] - The labor market is still quite solid [4] Inflation - Headline inflation was 21% and core inflation was 25% [2] - Inflation is above target, even ignoring tariffs [5] Monetary Policy - The speaker is trying to do the right thing in a challenging situation, being pulled in two directions [5] - At some point, if risks are equally balanced, a neutral policy stance would be desirable, which is not the case currently [6] - The speaker is not committing to a rate cut in September and will need to see more data on inflation and employment [2][6] - Judgments will be based on all data and a balance of risks analysis [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **US Economic Outlook**: The US economy is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with projections indicating a rebound in Q2 GDP by 2.8% QoQ SAAR after a contraction in Q1. However, underlying growth is expected to slow further in the second half of the year [doc id='75'][doc id='21']. Core Economic Indicators - **Labor Market**: Job growth is projected at 100k for July, with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. The labor market shows signs of weakness, with low hiring rates and an increase in jobless claims indicating downside risks to employment [doc id='28'][doc id='15'][doc id='19']. - **Inflation Trends**: Core PCE inflation is expected to rise modestly by 2.3% QoQ in Q2, aligning with a slowdown towards the 2% target. Tariffs are anticipated to have a temporary impact on goods prices, with a 0.3% increase in core goods prices likely in June [doc id='76'][doc id='58']. Trade Agreements and Tariffs - **Trade Deals**: The US has reached a preliminary trade agreement with Japan, setting a tariff rate at 15%, which is lower than the global auto tariff of 25%. A similar approach is expected with other major trading partners [doc id='4'][doc id='5']. - **Tariff Implications**: Tariffs are set to increase on August 1st for several countries, with expectations that larger trading partners like the EU may avoid significant tariff hikes due to ongoing negotiations [doc id='29']. Housing Market Insights - **Housing Affordability**: High interest rates and home prices have made housing unaffordable, leading to low sales of new and existing homes. The sector is expected to contract further, with residential construction spending declining [doc id='13'][doc id='66']. - **Home Prices**: Case Shiller home prices have shown a decline on a month-to-month basis, indicating weak demand relative to supply. This trend is expected to continue, contributing to slowing shelter inflation [doc id='74']. Manufacturing Sector Performance - **Manufacturing Activity**: The S&P manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, indicating contraction. Business fixed investment is expected to grow modestly, with durable goods orders showing mixed signals [doc id='23'][doc id='77']. Employment and Wage Trends - **Employment Cost Index**: The employment cost index is projected to increase by 0.8% QoQ, reflecting easing labor market conditions. Wage growth is expected to slow amidst weakening demand for labor [doc id='64'][doc id='42']. - **Labor Force Participation**: The labor force participation rate is expected to decline to 62.2%, with a significant portion of this decline attributed to discouraged workers [doc id='47']. Conclusion - The US economy is facing a complex landscape characterized by slowing growth, rising unemployment, and inflationary pressures from tariffs. The housing market remains weak, and manufacturing activity is contracting, indicating potential challenges ahead for economic recovery.

Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The US economy is showing signs of strength with improved sentiment and strong retail sales [1] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is perceived to be in a comfortable position to observe economic developments before making policy changes, given the unemployment rate is near the natural rate and inflation is moderating [2] - The Fed is expected to re-engage with its recalibration campaign, potentially starting in September, to further lower rates [4] - The committee anticipates the neutral rate to be around 3%, suggesting further room for rate cuts [10] - A more realistic estimate for the neutral rate might be 325% to 350%, allowing the Fed some flexibility [11] - The Fed aims to bring inflation down to the lower end of the 2% range and ideally asymptote to 2% [11] Inflation & Fed's Response - The Fed's 2022 policy of sharply increasing the policy rate successfully reduced inflation without causing a recession [6] - The Fed's actions were followed globally, with some emerging markets even anticipating and moving ahead of the Fed [8] Fiscal Policy Impact - Some believe the Fed misplayed the 2021 episode, partly due to substantial expenditure authorized by Congress and the White House, which fueled inflation [6]

Labor Market Trends - The Wall Street Journal published an article highlighting the difficulty college graduates face in securing employment [1] - AI is negatively impacting entry-level job opportunities [1] - The unemployment rate has increased from a recent low of 4% to over 6%, specifically 63% or 64% [1] - The labor differential indicates it is becoming more challenging to find employment [2] - Continuing unemployment claims are rising, suggesting that individuals who are already unemployed are struggling to find new jobs [2] Job Seeker Strategies - Individuals considering a job change or seeking employment should prioritize focusing on AI-related skills [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on near-term growth momentum despite a strong GDP print, suggesting the need for more policy stimulus to boost investment demand and support the labor market [6]. Core Insights - China's 2Q25 GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly below the 5.4% growth in 1Q25, but above market consensus of 5.1% [1][8]. - Industrial production (IP) showed a surprising increase to 6.8% in June, driven by resilient export activities, with manufacturing IP accelerating to 7.4% [3][8]. - Retail sales growth moderated to 4.8% in June, lower than the previous month and consensus expectations, indicating potential weakness in domestic demand [4][8]. - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth slowed to 2.8% year-to-date, with a significant contraction in property investment at -11.2% year-on-year [5][8]. - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, with disposable income per capita increasing by 5.1% year-on-year [10][11]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - 2Q25 GDP growth was reported at 5.2% year-on-year, with a sequential increase of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter [1][8]. - In the first half of 2025, real GDP growth reached 5.3%, surpassing the annual policy target of "around 5%" [1]. Industrial Production - IP growth rose to 6.8% in June from 5.8% in May, with manufacturing IP accelerating to 7.4% [3][8]. - Growth was observed in 36 out of 41 industries, with notable increases in industrial robots and integrated circuits [3]. Retail Sales - Retail sales increased by 4.8% year-on-year in June, down from 6.3% in May, influenced by earlier promotions and subsidy halts [4][8]. - Catering services saw a significant slowdown, with growth dropping to 0.9% year-on-year [4]. Fixed Asset Investment - FAI growth moderated to 2.8% year-to-date, with a single-month growth of only 0.5% year-on-year [5][8]. - Property investment continued to decline sharply, with a contraction of -11.2% year-on-year [5]. Labor Market and Income - The urban unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.0% in June, with average weekly hours worked at 48.5 [10][11]. - Disposable income per capita reached RMB 9,661 in 2Q, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year increase [11].