Investment Rating - The report maintains a base case for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with potential for an earlier cut in July if unemployment rises sharply [6][11][40]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic data over the summer months to determine the timing of potential rate cuts, with a consensus forming around the likelihood of cuts resuming in September [5][8]. - Consumer spending has shown significant slowdown, particularly in real services spending, which has implications for economic growth and inflation [10][12][19]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.4% in June, with a possibility of reaching 4.5% if job market conditions worsen, which could prompt earlier rate cuts [11][23][40]. Economic Indicators - Services inflation has remained subdued, with core PCE inflation at 0.179% month-over-month, indicating a cooling inflation environment [9][30]. - Real personal spending has stagnated, with a notable decline in both goods and services spending observed in recent months [10][30]. - The housing sector is experiencing weakness, with new home sales declining by 13.7% month-over-month in May, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [15][18][30]. Labor Market Trends - Initial jobless claims have shown a slight decline, but continuing claims are rising, suggesting a loosening labor market [24][67]. - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93.0 in June, indicating growing concerns among consumers regarding the labor market and economic conditions [19][30]. - Average hourly earnings are expected to slow to 0.2% month-over-month, reflecting a weakening labor demand environment [38][39]. Manufacturing and Trade - ISM Manufacturing is expected to remain in contraction, while ISM Services is projected to rebound slightly, indicating modest growth in services activity [60][63]. - The trade balance is anticipated to widen to -$71.7 billion, driven by a drop in exports, which could weigh on GDP growth [57][58].

Uh Ed, we now have a market that uh you know is has kind of completed whatever uh we're going to call what happened in the spring, that severe correction. In fact, one of the fastest rebounds from a 15% plus pullback in the S&P 500 we've seen. What does that tell us.And I guess what is the overall market behavior suggest to you. Yeah, Mike, it certainly has been risk on since the the April lows. We went through a retesting period for a couple of weeks, but then once we got into late April, it's been very mu ...

Huge move this week in rate cut odds 📈3 cuts now up to 45% by end of year (up from 27%)Now 90% chance of anywhere from 2-4 cutsNo change at just 0.6% chance https://t.co/9E6dokXoqJ ...

Let's bring in Max Kentner, HSBC's chief multi-asset strategist to talk about this close. Max, you know, I sit here the S&P 500 at 6142. It's a couple of points from the closing high from February 19th.Uh does it make sense that we're back here. Yeah. Um I think it does.It absolutely does because when we look at the earnings picture, that actually uh does really still look resoundingly good. And when we look particularly at uh forward earnings, when we look at Q2 earnings expectation, it is actually bizarre ...

S&P as we've noted, is less than 1% from an all time high. Joining us now Carol Schleiff, BMO, BMO Private Wealth Chief Market Strategist the. Carol, it's good to see you the way the way that the journal I like summarized what Powell told lawmakers yesterday.It's kind of indicative of I think what we're talking about, he said, yeah, recent economic data would have likely justified some cuts, good cuts, I think because of inflation, not necessarily for because of bad reasons for weakness. However, higher tar ...

Walk on the street. I'm Steve Leeman. The big Fed news of the morning, of course, is Fed Chair Powell in his testimony before Congress pushing back against the possibility of a July rate cut from two of his committee members.More on that in just a second. But first, we have new comments from Cleveland President Beth Hammock adding to the chair's view that rates should remain on hold. She says she does not see economic weakening that would merit rate cuts.The risk to maintaining current policy, she says, app ...

This morning, our next guest does expect a rate cut to come in September. Joining us this morning to discuss is Evercore ISI Vice Chair Krishna Guha. Christian, welcome back. Good to see you again. Great to see you. Doesn't sound like you expect any change today, even on the dots. But what kind of soft guidance do you think he might give about the fall? Look, I think that the Fed's going to stay very much in wait and see mode today. Now, we've had some interesting data come in, right? The top tier data for ...

There's a number of big questions we don't know the answers to. We don't know whether the US is going to get involved. We don't know what kind of escalation we're going to be seeing. We don't know what the Fed is going to do a little bit later on.Is today just a day for sitting on your hands. Do you have a clear sense of direction. I think we're just waiting to the Fed in the short term.And I think this Fed meeting is really interesting in the short term and for day traders, I think there'll be quite a bit ...

The Fed's latest round of projections released Wednesday will include the muchstudied dot plot. It's a chart updated quarterly that shows each Fed officials prediction about the direction of the central bank's benchmark interest rate. Our next guest, however, is in the camp of no cuts from the Fed for the remainder of the year.We got Kenny Pulcari here, a Slatestone Wealth chief market strategist and host of the Yahoo Finance podcast, Trader Talk. So, each one of those little dots represents a member of the ...

Market Trends & Geopolitical Impact - Oil prices initially surged to their highest level since January but pulled back following signals from Iran about de-escalating tensions and potential nuclear talks [1][18][20][21] - Defense stocks continued to climb amid the Israel-Iran conflict, though analysts suggest investor behavior is more of a "safe haven" move than a direct correlation to company bottom lines [1][70][71][72] - The Paris Air Show is expected to be muted due to the ongoing conflict and a recent Air India crash, with Boeing CEO skipping the event [59][61] Economic Indicators & Fed Policy - The market is shifting focus to Fed policy, earnings, and factors impacting the earnings picture, with the FOMC meeting being a key event [5][8] - There's discussion around the potential for a dovish Fed pivot, driven by inflation being cooler than in 2019 when the Fed last cut rates [35][36] - Real-time housing inflation is falling, suggesting the official measure has room to decline, potentially signaling a green light for the Fed to turn dovish [38][39] Company Specific & Sector Analysis - Meta is introducing ads to WhatsApp, focusing on user data for targeting but aiming to avoid content analysis, with the bigger opportunity being the race to artificial general intelligence [44][45][47] - Reddit is launching AI-driven advertising tools, leveraging human engagement data to inform generative AI and improve ad targeting [50][51] - Victoria's Secret is facing pressure from activist investors to overhaul the board and focus on the core bra business, while also navigating consumer spending habits and recent leadership changes [53][56][57] - China is stimulating its consumer market to offset export dependency, with Apple being a notable loser as domestic brands like Huawei gain market share [76][78][79][80] Global Investment Strategies - There's a potential shift in global equity leadership away from the US, with capital repatriation expected to benefit Europe, Asia, and emerging markets [87] - The US dollar showed no reaction to market surprises, and there was no rally in treasuries, indicating a lack of appetite for US assets [84][85] - TPW Advisory is overweight Chinese equity, favoring US-listed ETFs, and constructive on a global growth cycle extending through 2027-2028 [82][83] AI & Technology - AI is a major theme at the Can Lions International Festival of Creativity, with discussions on how it's changing the advertising and media industries [95] - Time Inc is embracing AI, launching Time AI with Scale AI to create personalized content and audio versions of their journalism [96][97][98][101][102] - Hyperscalers are investing heavily in the race to artificial general intelligence, even without knowing the ultimate prize [48] Energy Sector - Energy stocks may present an opportunity, as they have diverged from oil price trends and offer potential dividends [105][106] - AI's energy demands are creating a large energy problem, with hyperscalers investing in creative solutions like "behind the meter" energy sources [16][17] - Gas prices are still about 33 cents a gallon below last year, and diesel prices hit their lowest level since 2021 prior to Middle East escalations [23][32][33]