Core Insights - The ongoing U.S.-China trade war is significantly impacting oil prices, with WTI crude dropping below $60 per barrel and Brent crude falling around $62, marking the lowest levels since the pandemic [1][2] - The cumulative U.S. tariffs on China have reached 104%, raising recession fears and negatively affecting oil demand outlook, with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan increasing recession probabilities to 45% and 60% respectively [2][3] - Major oil companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Shell have seen significant stock declines, with ExxonMobil down 15.3%, Chevron down 18.7%, and Shell down 18.2% since the tariff announcement, indicating the sector's vulnerability to trade-related economic concerns [4] Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ has announced a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day, adding pressure to an already softening demand environment, which may force companies to reevaluate capital spending plans [6] - The mismatch between supply and demand is leading traders to expect oil prices to settle in a lower range, limiting upside potential for energy equities [7] - Integrated energy firms face challenges as upstream profitability is threatened by low oil prices, while downstream operations may benefit from cheaper crude [10][12] Strategic Implications - The current low oil price environment may align with broader economic strategies aimed at stimulating domestic manufacturing by lowering input costs, despite the negative impact on oil producers [9] - Companies may focus on cost discipline, delaying capital-intensive projects and optimizing operations to protect margins in this challenging environment [12] - The geopolitical landscape and potential supply-side interventions from OPEC+ will be critical factors influencing future market conditions [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming quarterly earnings reports from major U.S. banks are expected to focus more on economic outlook rather than profits, particularly in light of rising U.S. tariffs and the potential for increased loan losses [1][2] Group 1: Economic Impact on Banks - Analysts predict that banks will need to set aside billions for potential loan defaults due to the economic uncertainty caused by tariffs, leading to higher reserves for loan losses [1][2] - The economic downturn is likely to result in banks scaling back lending activities as they perceive higher risks associated with existing loans [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Earnings Calls - Banks are anticipated to face inquiries during earnings calls regarding the recent market selloff, which has significantly impacted bank stocks after an earlier surge driven by optimism about dealmaking [3] - Major banks such as Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase are scheduled to report earnings on April 11, with JPMorgan's CEO warning of potential long-term negative effects from tariffs, including inflation and recession [4][5] Group 3: Broader Economic Sentiment - There is a prevailing sentiment among U.S. business leaders that the country may already be in a recession, which adds to the cautious outlook for the financial sector [6] - Despite the challenges, there remains optimism about the long-term potential of the FinTech sector, driven by innovations in technology, although current economic turmoil clouds this outlook [7]

About this content About Oliver Haill Oliver has been writing about companies and markets since the early 2000s, cutting his teeth as a financial journalist at Growth Company Investor with a focusing on AIM companies and small caps, before a few years later becoming a section editor and then head of research. He joined Proactive after a couple of years freelancing, where he worked for the Financial Times Group, ITV, Press Association, Reuters sports desk, the London Olympic News Service, Rugby World Cup ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating across equity regions to maximize diversification, with a shift to a more defensive asset allocation [4]. Core Insights - The market experienced a significant sell-off following the announcement of a reciprocal tariff policy by the US, leading to an 11% drop in the S&P 500, marking one of the largest two-day declines since the Great Depression [2][9]. - The Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) saw one of its largest two-day drops since 1991, indicating a broad 'risk-off' sentiment across assets, with the RAI closing at approximately -1.4 [3][4]. - Historically, RAI levels near or below -2 have indicated better opportunities to 'buy the dip', with a hit ratio of over 90% for positive S&P 500 returns in the subsequent 12 months from such levels [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Reaction - The S&P 500's drop of 11% since the tariff announcement is the fifth largest two-day drop since the Great Depression, with US equities leading the sell-off across assets [2][9]. - Non-US equities initially reacted less sharply but saw accelerated declines later, while credit spreads widened, indicating increased credit beta to the equity sell-off [2]. Risk Appetite Indicator - The RAI dropped to around -1.4, with a tendency to bottom lower during previous market sell-offs, suggesting potential buying opportunities when it reaches levels near or below -2 [3][10]. - The credit component of the RAI fell rapidly, closing the gap with the equity component, although credit is still pricing a low probability of recession [3][4]. Asset Allocation - The report indicates a shift to a more defensive asset allocation, moving from Overweight (OW) equities to Neutral (N), while maintaining OW in bonds and underweight (UW) in credit [4][19]. - The probability of a sell-off for equities is now above 40%, driven by worsening market sentiment [4].

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said that the stock market could see declines deepen by another 20% amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariffs and that CEOs are telling him they think the U.S. economy is likely already in a recession. "Most CEOs I talk to would say we are probably in a recession right now," Fink told the Economic Club of New York on Monday. Tariffs are expected to make a wide variety of products more expensive, exacerbating inflationary pressures that have been persistent in recent mon ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. indexes, Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, experienced significant declines of 9.89%, 9.58%, and 8.78% respectively last week due to President Trump's reciprocal tariff policies implemented on April 2, 2025, raising fears of a near-term recession [1] - Analysts predict a slowdown in economic growth and a rise in short-term inflation, with the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation marking a monthly gain of 0.4% in February 2025, the largest since January 2024 [2] Economic Indicators - The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reported that manufacturing PMI contracted to 49% and services PMI to 50.8% in March, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activities [3] - Job openings fell by 194,000 to 7.568 million in February, marking the lowest level since September 2024, with the employment index declining to 46.2% in March from 53.9% in February [3] Investment Performance - PhenixFIN Corporation (PFX) shares gained 6.2% since being upgraded to Zacks Rank 1 on February 12, while United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS) returned 5.2% since its upgrade on February 13, both outperforming the S&P 500's significant declines [4][5] - A hypothetical portfolio of Zacks Rank 1 stocks returned -3.48% in January 2025, compared to -0.60% for the S&P 500, but had a strong performance in 2024 with a return of +22.3% [5][6] Zacks Recommendations - EZCORP, Inc. (EZPW) and Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) saw share increases of 13.4% and 5% respectively since their Zacks Recommendation upgrades to Outperform [8] - The Zacks Focus List portfolio, which includes HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) and Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), returned +0.87% this year through February 2025, outperforming the S&P 500's -14.2% decline over the same period [11][12] Long-term Performance - The Zacks Top 10 portfolio has produced a cumulative return of +1948.35% since 2012, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +469.98% return in the same timeframe [24]

JPMorgan’s CEO says America’s latest tariffs could dampen an economy that was “already weakening.”In his annual letter to shareholders, published Monday (April 7), Jamie Dimon argues that there are several uncertainties tied to the tariff policy: the effect on confidence, investments, corporate profits and the U.S. dollar, as well as retaliation by other countries.“The quicker this issue is resolved, the better because some of the negative effects increase cumulatively over time and would be hard to reverse ...

Within the space of just a few days, the stock market has nearly unraveled all of 2024's gains, driven by the fear that Trump's fresh tariff plan will set the U.S. on a faster collision course to a recession. Amid this backdrop, however, investors who haveWith combined experience of covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, and serving as an outside adviser to several seed-round startups, Gary Alexander has exposure to many of the themes shaping the industry today. He has b ...

Core Viewpoint - Verizon Communications is viewed as a reliable defensive stock but has struggled to outperform the market, particularly during bull markets [1][2][12] Group 1: Performance and Market Comparison - Since the current bull market began on October 12, 2022, the S&P 500 has risen by 51%, while Verizon's stock has only increased by 28% [2] - In 2023, Verizon's stock rallied by 14% as the S&P 500 declined by 8%, indicating its defensive nature during economic uncertainty [2] - Over the past 20 years, Verizon's stock has only risen by 34%, with a $10,000 investment growing to $13,400, compared to an S&P 500 index fund that would have grown to approximately $43,140 [3][4] Group 2: Financial Metrics and Debt - Verizon's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) has had a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 3% from 2004 to 2024 [4] - The company's year-end debt increased from $39.3 billion to $168.4 billion, primarily due to a $130 billion acquisition of Vodafone's stake in Verizon Wireless in 2014 [5] - Verizon expects its wireless revenue to grow by 2% to 2.8% in 2025, with adjusted EBITDA projected to grow by 1% to 3% [8] Group 3: Subscriber Growth and Market Strategy - In 2023, Verizon struggled to gain new wireless subscribers, attributing the slowdown to competition from AT&T, T-Mobile, and other smaller players [6] - In 2024, Verizon doubled its postpaid phone net additions, thanks to localized incentives, marketing campaigns, and a partnership with Walmart [7] - The wireless retail churn rate improved from 1.67% in 2023 to 1.62% in 2024, indicating better customer retention [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Verizon's enterprise value is $329 billion, trading at 7 times this year's adjusted EBITDA, with a forward dividend yield of 6.1% [9] - If Verizon maintains a CAGR of 3% for adjusted EPS and EBITDA over the next 20 years, its stock could potentially rise by more than 90% to around $88 per share by 2045 [11] - Despite potential gains, Verizon is expected to underperform compared to the S&P 500, which has delivered an average annual return of over 10% since 1957 [11][12]

Core Points - U.S. Treasury yields have significantly decreased, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4% due to fears of a global recession triggered by China's retaliatory tariffs against U.S. goods [1][3] - The 10-year Treasury yield dropped over 16 basis points to 3.89%, marking the lowest level since October, while the 2-year Treasury yield fell over 22 basis points to 3.50% [2] - China announced a 34% tariff on all U.S. goods starting April 10, following President Trump's implementation of a 10% baseline tariff affecting over 180 countries, which has led to a surge in Treasury purchases for safety [3][4] - JPMorgan has increased the probability of a recession this year to 60% from 40%, citing that sustained tariff policies could push the U.S. and potentially the global economy into recession [4] - Investors are anticipating the nonfarm payrolls report, with expectations of a 140,000 job increase and an unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, which will provide insights into the U.S. economic health amid growth concerns [5] - A weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report could exacerbate recession fears, while a stronger report may be viewed as outdated due to the looming impact of tariffs on the job market [6]