India must grow 12% a year to fix its jobs crisis, Morgan Stanley warns https://t.co/5UJmi6ToVy ...

Core Viewpoint - Asia's economies experienced solid growth in the first half of the year, but this momentum is expected to slow down as tariffs are implemented [1] Economic Growth - The Asian Development Bank reported that the growth rate of Asian economies was robust in the first half of the year [1] - The anticipated slowdown in growth is attributed to the effects of tariffs being put into place [1]

The Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate decision on Wednesday will likely be a close call, with policymakers facing multiple reasons to lower borrowing costs as inflation stays low and economic growth takes a knock from high US tariffs https://t.co/klulOiZE3z ...

Zimbabwe ordered government departments to halt unbudgeted spending and focus funds only on projects that will support economic growth https://t.co/OgSZlUap9N ...

Stagflation Definition and Components - Stagflation is defined as a combination of weak or negative growth, high unemployment, and high inflation [1] - Economic growth is measured by GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which tracks what's made inside US borders [2] - Inflation is tracked using CPI (Consumer Price Index), representing a household shopping basket, and PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), a broader measure favored by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - Job market health is assessed via the unemployment rate and monthly payroll changes reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with weekly unemployment claims offering higher-frequency insights [5] Historical Context and Current Assessment - The 1970s experienced significant stagflation with unemployment exceeding 7-8%, double-digit inflation, and contracting GDP [6] - The pandemic period saw a different pattern: initial COVID impact led to unemployment spikes and GDP decline, but without immediate price increases (stag without flation) [7] - In 2022, stimulus measures contributed to inflation exceeding 9%, while the economy contracted modestly and unemployment remained low [7] - Currently, unemployment is moderate, PCE is in the high 2% range, and GDP is relatively strong, not indicative of 1970s-style stagflation [8] Market and Economic Indicators to Watch - Precious metals, such as gold (up over 40% this year) and silver (approaching 60%), tend to perform well during periods of elevated inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [8] - Key data points to monitor include jobs data, CPI, PCE, and GDP, with particular attention to services inflation (shelter, insurance, healthcare costs) [9] - Energy prices and the strength of the US dollar are important factors, as an oil price surge or a weaker dollar could quickly reignite headline inflation [9][10] - Real incomes (workers' paychecks after inflation) should be monitored relative to demand; a decline in savings and increased credit card usage could signal potential issues [10][11]

Economic Overview - Stagflation is characterized by weak or negative growth, high unemployment, and high inflation, with current conditions indicating a lowercase stagflation since the pandemic [1][2] - Economic growth is measured by GDP, which reflects domestic production, while GNP tracks earnings of Americans globally [2][3] Inflation Metrics - Key inflation indicators include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), with the latter being favored by the Federal Reserve for its broader scope [3][4] - Distinction between headline inflation, which includes food and energy, and core inflation, which excludes these volatile components, is crucial for understanding inflation trends [4] Employment Indicators - The unemployment rate and monthly payroll changes are monitored closely, along with weekly unemployment claims, to gauge labor market health [5] - Historical data shows that during the 1970s stagflation, unemployment exceeded 7-8% with double-digit inflation and contracting GDP [6] Current Economic Conditions - Presently, unemployment is modest, PCE is in the high twos, and GDP remains strong, indicating that the economy is not in a severe stagflation scenario like the 1970s [7][8] - Precious metals have seen significant price increases, with gold up over 40% and silver nearing 60% this year, reflecting a response to elevated inflation and current interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8] Monitoring Indicators - Key indicators to watch include jobs data, CPI, PCE, and GDP, with a focus on services inflation, shelter costs, and healthcare expenses [9] - Fluctuations in oil prices or a weaker dollar could quickly impact headline inflation, necessitating close monitoring of real incomes versus consumer demand [10] Conclusion - There is a potential risk of lowercase stagflation, but it is unlikely to escalate to the levels seen in the 1970s or 80s based on current observations [11]

Spain was upgraded by Moody’s Ratings and Fitch Ratings, a double-whammy that recognizes the economy’s standout growth performance in the euro area https://t.co/uJP7PBRvqH ...

The IMF and the Bank of England expect Britain’s annual growth rate to remain around 1.5% over the next three years—the same sluggish pace it has managed since 2008.Will the Labour Party’s ideas ever work? https://t.co/GQIXZTgCcG ...

Industry Perspective - Robotics is seen as essential to U S economic growth and national security [1] - The U S needs to beat China in robotics [1] Leadership Insight - Jeff Cardenas, CEO and co-founder of Apptronik, shares his views [1]

Is there any reason for the United States to be doing this beyond the fact that it's embarrassing for Trump's chainsaw buddy to you know need a bailout like to to like I would say it's primarily that it's embarrassing for his chainsaw buddy by the way we should get back to a second for you know to to the bailout that that the Trump team is giving me le because it's interesting one of the things that when they handed him the 20 billion or they're going to hand him a$20 billion swap line which is a form of cr ...