Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The Fed faces a tug of war between employment/growth and inflation, striving to avoid stagflation [1] - Uncertainty prevails regarding which side (employment/growth vs inflation) poses a greater threat, leading the Fed to maintain current interest rates [2] - The Fed is potentially tilting towards a rate cut, possibly starting in September, influenced by recent softening employment numbers and declining workforce participation [3][4] - A 50 basis point cut is unlikely, as the Fed aims to maintain credibility and independence, and current data doesn't warrant such an aggressive move [6][9] - Employment data is the key indicator the Fed is closely monitoring to determine the timing and extent of potential rate cuts [12][13] Economic Factors & Market Dynamics - Tariffs' impact on inflation is still unfolding, with the value chain potentially absorbing some of the costs [11][12] - The US economy is viewed optimistically in the next 12-18 months, driven by innovation and significant investment in AI [15] - The US private sector and China are the primary forces driving AI development, with both vying for their standards to prevail [16][17] - AI has the potential to transform industries, job markets, and the central bank's reaction function, creating both winners and losers [19][20] - Breakthrough technologies like AI historically create more jobs over time, although the transition period may present employment challenges [21]

Economic Growth Projection - Sweden's government increased its economic growth forecast for the next year [1] - Reduced uncertainty regarding US tariffs is expected to boost household consumption in the coming months [1]

The Czech Republic must drop its penchant for “fiscal self-flagellation” in favor of investing in economic growth, according to an opposition party senior official https://t.co/R51IaVQkmJ ...

The euro-zone economy is likely to see slower growth this quarter, with question marks over global trade remaining despite recent deals with the US reducing uncertainty, ECB President Christine Lagarde said https://t.co/vw8xaUHnJM ...

Indonesia’s central bank surprised markets by cutting its benchmark rate for a second straight month, further shifting monetary policy toward boosting economic growth https://t.co/mHjLjzEaHY ...

Thailand’s central bank would need to see a “significant material deterioration” in its economic growth outlook, or face unexpected shocks, to justify additional rate cuts beyond the three reductions it has made this year https://t.co/yO2wgONFp2 ...

Economic Outlook - Japan's exports experienced the steepest drop in more than four years [1] - US tariffs are weighing on global commerce [1] - The outlook for economic growth is clouded [1] - Personal spending remains unsteady [1]

He joins us from Seattle. He's got this to say Recent labor market data increase the scope for a Fed cut. As soon as September.We expect that the Fed will look through elevated inflation in the coming months and favor the growth side of its mandate. Rob joins us now for more. Rob, good morning.Good to see you. Less on housing and less on the politics of the moment. Much more on this Fed Reserve going into September.What do you expect to hear this coming Friday. I think Chair Powell is in a tough spot going ...

Economic Impact - Slowdown in AI capital expenditure could hinder overall economic growth [1] - A potential positive aspect exists despite the slowdown [1]

Vietnam launched a major infrastructure push with the groundbreaking or inauguration of some 250 projects nationwide, as the government seeks to boost economic growth https://t.co/lAJ4yq3PRW ...