Core Viewpoint - Ongoing high levels of inflation suggest that the U.S. central bank should not cut interest rates further at this time [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - The current monetary policy is viewed as barely restrictive, which does not significantly help in reducing inflation pressures above the 2% target [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut the benchmark interest rate to the 3.75%-4.00% range was opposed by Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack, who believes inflation remains too high [3][5]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Hammack projects inflation to be at 3% by the end of this year, remaining elevated through 2026 before gradually returning to desired levels [5]. - Financial markets are currently supportive of the economy, with accommodative financial conditions due to recent equity price gains and easy credit [6]. Group 3: Labor Market Insights - There are concerns regarding the labor market, with expectations that the unemployment rate will rise slightly above its longer-run value by the end of the year [6]. - Despite the slowing labor market, Hammack does not foresee a significant downturn, although subdued job growth may indicate fragility [6].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has maintained a tighter hold on the policy reins compared to most of its peers, largely due to the stability of the Southeast Asian economy [1] Group 1 - The central bank's policy approach reflects a commitment to maintaining economic stability in the region [1] - The stability of the Southeast Asian economy has been a significant factor in the central bank's policy decisions [1]

Monetary Policy - Malaysia's central bank is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate unchanged [1] - Stable economic growth, benign inflation, and a strengthening ringgit support the decision to preserve policy ammunition [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Supreme Court is hearing a case regarding the constitutionality of President Trump's tariffs, which are deemed critical for the U.S. economy and national security [1] Tariffs and Economic Impact - The tariffs have significantly reduced imports from China and raised hundreds of billions of dollars for the U.S. government [2][3] - The administration has alternative measures available if the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs, ensuring continued revenue generation and support for reindustrialization [3] Economic Weakness and Monetary Policy - There are acknowledged weaknesses in the economy, particularly in the housing sector, attributed to high mortgage rates and low affordability [5][6] - The Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy is seen as a barrier to economic growth, particularly in manufacturing [7][8] Inflation and Energy Prices - The tariffs have not led to the expected inflationary pressures, which has affected the credibility of the Federal Reserve [10][11] - Energy prices have decreased under the current administration, contributing to lower inflation expectations and potentially aiding affordability [12][13] Wage Growth and Tax Benefits - The economy is projected to experience a "blue-collar boom," with wages rising faster than inflation, contrasting with previous administrations [14] - Significant tax refunds are anticipated due to changes in tax policy, which will benefit American workers, particularly in the blue-collar sector [15]

Australia’s dollar climbed to a 12-year high against its New Zealand counterpart, driven by a diverging monetary policy outlook between the neighboring nations https://t.co/O0ZfrverKk ...

We have a restrictive rate. It didn't need to be at such a restrictive level as we are. This is a personal opinion of mine that I would say is that of many people today.It is not an isolated position. But anyway, there are those who think differently. I respect it, but I consider it an exaggerated restrictive rate.We could already start thinking signaling. Let's see the statement because sometimes the interest rate level can be maintained but sometimes the statement can signal. Let's see. Let's wait for eve ...

Brazil’s central bank is applying too strong a dose of tough monetary medicine in its fight against inflation, hurting the economy and hampering government plans to limit public debt, according to the country’s finance chief https://t.co/nQVtZLc0EW ...

According to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, the United States is quietly preparing for what he calls a “hidden quantitative easing” (QE) program. He believes that this could lead to the next major rally in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. In his latest blog post, Hayes argued that US government spending remains on an unsustainable path. Washington is relying on massive bond issuance rather than tax hikes. However, foreign investors are turning away from the US Treasury bonds, preferring gold after ...

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined on Tuesday following mixed moves on Monday, with major benchmark indices showing lower futures [1] - The U.S. Government shutdown has reached its 34th day, leading to increasing economic consequences [2] - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.08%, while the two-year bond was at 3.58% [2] - Market expectations indicate a 70.1% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December [2] Stock Performance - Dow Jones fell by 1.02%, S&P 500 decreased by 1.33%, Nasdaq 100 dropped by 1.67%, and Russell 2000 declined by 1.81% [2] - SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down 1.27% at $674.69, and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) declined 1.62% to $621.86 in premarket trading [2] Company Highlights - Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) fell 2.22% in premarket ahead of earnings, with expectations of $1.16 per share on revenue of $8.74 billion [6] - Upwork Inc. (UPWK) surged 18.30% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 results and raising FY25 guidance [6] - Denny's Corporation (DENN) surged 49.15% after announcing a definitive agreement to be acquired for approximately $620 million [6] - Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) tumbled 7.51% despite strong earnings, influenced by Michael Burry's purchase of put options worth $186.58 million [15] - Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) dropped 2.47% after reporting revenue of $11.2 billion, missing estimates of $13.27 billion [15] Economic Insights - The economic outlook remains mixed, with monetary policy being less predictable and trade risks easing [10] - A new U.S.-China trade truce is seen as beneficial for corporate earnings, but the stock market rally shows signs of structural cracks [11] - There is a growing divergence between price and breadth in the market, raising concerns about a potential false breakout [12]

Market Analysis & Altcoin Performance - Altcoins have been underperforming against Bitcoin since 2021 [2] - Altcoin/Bitcoin pairs recently hit a new low of 029% [3] - Historically, significant alt seasons have only occurred after altcoin/Bitcoin pairs reach 025% [3] - The current altcoin/Bitcoin pairs are at 036% [4] - The analysis suggests altcoin/Bitcoin pairs are likely to reach 025% [26][27] - An altcoin market cap is expected to be approximately 25% of Bitcoin's market cap [28] Social Interest & Market Cycles - Low social interest in crypto, similar to the period from January 2018 to the end of 2019, contributes to the underperformance of altcoins [7] - The current market cycle is being compared to the 2019 rally, where Bitcoin outperformed altcoins during quantitative tightening [11][12][14] - The entire 2019 rally for Bitcoin occurred during quantitative tightening, similar to the current cycle [14] - Bitcoin dominance is breaking through its bull market support band, indicating a likely continued rally [30] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve is expected to end quantitative tightening in December [9] - Historically, altcoin/Bitcoin pairs bottomed when quantitative tightening ended, but this did not immediately trigger an alt season [9] - The end of quantitative tightening might lead to a bounce in altcoin/Bitcoin pairs [17] - The analysis suggests that high interest rates and quantitative tightening have contributed to Bitcoin's outperformance and the absence of an alt season [25] Bitcoin Performance & Dominance - Bitcoin is taking liquidity from the altcoin market to maintain its position above $100000, similar to how it took liquidity to stay above $10000 in 2019 [34] - Bitcoin dominance is expected to continue to rise, at least until early December [26] - A weekly close below the 50-week moving average, currently around $103000, could indicate the end of the cycle [32][33]