Small deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well ...

Core Insights - Amazon's stock has declined by 16% over the past month due to macroeconomic uncertainties and disappointing Q1 2025 guidance [1] - Despite beating Wall Street expectations for Q4 and full-year 2024 earnings, the company's projected Q1 2025 revenue fell short of consensus estimates, raising concerns about growth [2] Financial Performance - Amazon reported a 10% year-over-year revenue increase, but projected Q1 2025 revenue between $151 billion and $155.5 billion, missing the $158.5 billion consensus estimate [2] - At the lower end of the projection, this would represent Amazon's slowest quarterly growth rate since going public in 1997 [2] Market Position - Amazon maintains a dominant position in the U.S. e-commerce market, accounting for 39.6% of total online retail sales, with expectations to surpass 40.9% by 2025 [4] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) reported 19% growth in Q4 2024, although it is losing market share to competitors like Azure and Google Cloud, which grew by 31% and 30% respectively [5] Advertising Revenue - The online advertising segment generated $17.29 billion in revenue in Q4 2024, reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase, making Amazon the third-largest platform in the global digital advertising market [6] Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a potential bullish setup for Amazon stock, with a noted price target of $300 by the end of 2025 [7] - The stock recently broke below its 50-week moving average for the first time since August 2024, indicating a potential buying opportunity [8] - Historical trends show that when Amazon's stock hits similar levels, it has rallied approximately 65.24% in the following months, suggesting significant upside potential [9]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and potential returns [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - Preference is given to stocks that have undergone a recent sell-off, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - The investor conducts professional background checks on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off, adding a layer of due diligence [1] Market Focus - The primary focus is on stocks in the US market, although there is openness to owning shares in less stable economies, referred to as "banana republics" [1] - The investor's approach is characterized by a willingness to engage with illiquid options, highlighting a high-risk tolerance [1]

Group 1: Company Performance - Valero Energy Corporation and Marathon Petroleum Corp have seen their shares drop nearly 20% over the past month due to a sell-off in oil [1] - Both companies may be on the verge of a reversal and rally, making them notable investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis Insights - Technical analysis can be better understood through the lens of psychology, as it reflects the behavior of traders and investors [2] - Patterns such as double tops and triple tops indicate potential reversals, with double tops suggesting a stock may head lower after two peaks [2][4] - Conversely, double bottoms indicate a potential upward reversal, suggesting that stocks may find support at previous low price levels [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The presence of regretful sellers can create resistance at previous peak prices, as they look to exit their positions without incurring losses [3][5] - Support can form at former support levels due to buyers wanting to repurchase shares at the price they previously sold [5] - Stocks often rally off support levels, which can lead to aggressive buying and a potential snowball effect driving prices higher [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the performance of Stockwaves, highlighting significant trading successes with returns of 7-10x and additional trades yielding 3-5x returns [1] - There is speculation about whether the sector has completed its period of stagnation, suggesting a potential upward movement in the near future [1] Group 2 - The article includes a disclosure indicating that the author has no current positions in the mentioned companies but may consider initiating a long position in CVX within the next 72 hours [1]