Group 1 - The 2026 RBC Canadian Bank CEO Conference is being held, featuring a fireside chat format for presentations [1][2] - The Canadian economy showed resilience in the previous year, avoiding a recession despite some concerns regarding USMCA negotiations [3] - Canada is gradually adjusting to existing tariffs, indicating a stable economic environment [4]

In a speech Thursday, the Treasury secretary also pressed the Federal Reserve for more interest-rate cuts. ...

Oil Market - Brent crude increased by 2% to $61.16 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by 1.8% to $57.01 per barrel, following a decline in US crude oil stockpiles by 3.8 million barrels to 419.1 million barrels, contrary to analysts' expectations of a rise [1][7]. Retail Sector - Tesco's shares fell by 6.5% despite achieving a 10-year high in market share in the UK, while Associated British Foods, owner of Primark, saw a 13% decline in shares due to weaker-than-expected sales [2][3]. Defence Sector - BAE Systems' shares surged by up to 7% after President Trump announced plans to increase the US defence budget from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, adding over £4 billion to its market value [6][40]. - UK defence stocks, including Babcock and Rolls Royce, saw significant gains, with nearly £7 billion invested in early trading following Trump's military spending pledge [53][41]. - European defence stocks also rose, with notable increases in companies like Rheinmetall and Airbus, reflecting investor confidence in increased government spending on defence [40][55]. Economic Indicators - A major credit rating agency predicts the US Federal Reserve will lower interest rates two more times this year due to a slowdown in the jobs market, with expectations of a decrease from the current range of 3.75% to 3% [19]. - The US trade deficit fell to its lowest level since 2009, dropping 39% to $29.4 billion in October, attributed to a $11 billion decrease in imports [24][25].

Core Insights - The services sector of the economy expanded at its fastest pace in December, marking its 10th month of growth in the last 12 months, while the manufacturing sector continued to struggle, slowing down for the 10th consecutive month [2][4][9] Group 1: Economic Performance - The services sector constitutes 73% of the economy as measured by Gross Domestic Product, compared to manufacturing's 9% share, indicating the services sector's dominance in economic activity [5] - Employment in the services sector expanded in December for the first time since May, contrasting with manufacturing, which has lost an average of 9,600 jobs per month since April [6] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs imposed last year aimed to protect U.S. manufacturing but have instead led to increased costs, reduced demand, and job losses in the manufacturing sector [3][9] - Managers in various industries, including chemicals and food services, reported that tariffs have raised prices and created uncertainty, negatively impacting their operations [5][8] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Despite the struggles in manufacturing, the overall economy appears to be growing at a solid pace, supported by the resilience of the services sector [10] - The continued expansion in services suggests that the economy is still on a growth trajectory, even if it did not end the year on a high note [10]

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Caterpillar - Caterpillar shares increased by 58% over the past year due to tariffs that limit cheap Chinese imports and enhance domestic demand [3] - The company benefited from expanded Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum, which doubled to 50% by June, allowing it to maintain market share against Chinese competitors [3] - Third-quarter results showed a 10% sales increase to $17.6 billion, with a record backlog of $39.8 billion driven by energy and transportation segments [4] Group 2: Tariff Impact on General Motors - General Motors stock rose nearly 53% over the past year, supported by tariffs that protect its U.S.-made trucks from foreign competition [7] - The company benefited from a 25% duty on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks, which helped shield models like the Chevrolet Silverado [7] - Third-quarter earnings indicated adjusted profit guidance at $12.5 billion, with a 6% increase in full-year deliveries driven by strong truck demand [8] Group 3: Potential Risks from Supreme Court Ruling - If the Supreme Court strikes down the tariffs, Caterpillar could face increased competition from low-cost Chinese equipment, potentially eroding pricing power and market position [6] - For General Motors, eliminating tariffs could lead to cheaper foreign trucks entering the market, undermining its pricing advantage and impacting profits [9]

Group 1 - President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on April 2, 2025, which he referred to as Liberation Day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Supreme Court is set to rule on the legality of President Trump's tariffs, which could significantly impact his trade agenda and economic strategy [1][10]. Tariff Revenue and Economic Impact - Tariff revenue has reached record levels, with collections increasing from $23.9 billion in May to $31.6 billion in September, totaling $215.2 billion for fiscal year 2025 [6]. - Since the beginning of the new fiscal year on October 1, over $98 billion has been collected from tariffs, indicating a strong revenue stream that supports Trump's economic policies [7]. Proposed Economic Initiatives - Trump has proposed using tariff revenue to provide a $2,000 dividend to low- and middle-income Americans by mid-2026, with any excess funds aimed at reducing the national debt of $38 trillion [7]. Legal and Policy Context - The Supreme Court's decision will determine if the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) grants the president the authority to impose tariffs, which is crucial for the continuation of Trump's economic agenda [1][10]. - The administration argues that these tariffs are essential to address perceived unfair global trade practices, highlighting the importance of trade policy in the overall economic strategy [10].

Core Insights - The monthly trade deficit has been decreasing following the implementation of extensive tariffs on foreign imports by President Trump [1] Group 1 - The trade deficit is a critical economic indicator that reflects the balance between a country's imports and exports [1] - The imposition of tariffs is aimed at reducing the trade deficit by making foreign goods more expensive [1] - The ongoing reduction in the trade deficit suggests a potential positive impact on domestic industries [1]

Core Insights - Businesses are effectively managing tariffs, which is positively impacting their operations and financial performance [1] - The integration of AI technologies is significantly boosting productivity across various sectors, leading to improved economic prospects [1] - Overall, these factors are contributing to enhanced expectations for the economy, corporate profits, and financial markets [1] Business Management - Companies are adapting to tariff changes, which helps mitigate potential negative impacts on their profitability [1] - Strategic management of tariffs is becoming a critical focus for businesses to maintain competitive advantage [1] AI and Productivity - The adoption of AI is driving substantial productivity gains, allowing companies to operate more efficiently [1] - Increased productivity from AI is expected to translate into higher profit margins for businesses [1] Economic Outlook - The combination of effective tariff management and AI-driven productivity improvements is fostering a more optimistic economic environment [1] - Financial markets are responding positively to these developments, indicating a potential for growth in investments [1]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined on Thursday after a mixed close on Tuesday, with only the Nasdaq 100 index ending in positive territory [1] - The Dow Jones futures fell by 0.29%, S&P 500 by 0.23%, Nasdaq 100 by 0.30%, and Russell 2000 by 0.45% [2] - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.15%, while the two-year bond was at 3.47% [2] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates an 88.4% likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates in January [2] Stocks in Focus - AZZ Inc. (NYSE:AZZ) shares rose by 2.8% in premarket trading after reporting strong third-quarter earnings [6] - Immuneering Corp. (NASDAQ:IMRX) shares fell by 22.93% following the announcement of updated survival and safety data from its Phase 2a trial for pancreatic cancer [6] - Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE:NOC) shares increased by 6.84% after President Trump proposed raising the 2027 military budget from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion [6] - Phathom Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:PHAT) shares dropped by 14.22% after announcing a $130 million public offering [14] - Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE:STZ) shares rose by 2.32% after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter earnings [14] Economic Insights - Economist Paul Krugman warns that the Trump administration's economic policies may pose risks to the broader economy and stock market, suggesting that the market is pricing in unrealistic revenue streams [10][11] - Krugman highlights the potential disconnect between market exuberance and economic fundamentals, predicting a painful correction as the "oil fantasy" dissipates [12]