WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said on Monday it is wrong to put too much emphasis on the strength of equity and corporate credit markets in assessing monetary policy that he feels remains too restrictive and is heightening the risk of a downturn. "Financial markets are driven by a lot of things, not just monetary policy," Miran said on the Bloomberg Surveillance television program, in explaining why he dissented last week against a quarter-percentage-point rate cut in favor ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The Fed is considered too restrictive, with neutral rates significantly below current policy [1] - Maintaining a restrictive policy for an extended period risks causing an economic downturn [2][16] - Financial markets are influenced by various factors beyond monetary policy, including technological advancements [4][5] - It's a mistake to automatically infer the stance of monetary policy solely from financial conditions [7] - Housing market conditions are tighter and have a greater impact on the economy's cyclical position than the stock market or credit spreads [8] - Policy passively tightened through 2025 due to shocks driven by economic policies outside the Fed, pushing neutral rates higher last year and lower this year [9][10][14] Neutral Rate and Economic Factors - Population growth rate is a major driver of neutral rates, experiencing 30 years' worth of change in only three years [11][12][13] - Changes in neutral rate accelerate over time, impacting the stance of monetary policy [14][15] Data Dependency and Economic Forecasts - Being excessively data-dependent makes the analysis backward-looking; forecasts should be prioritized [23] - Confidence in forecasts is high due to known shocks like population growth, minimizing the need for data dependency [24] - Alternative data on the labor market indicates a continual ebbing of demand, signaling that policy is too tight [27][28] Private Credit Market - Distresses in private markets suggest financial conditions have been tighter than perceived [9][31] - Uncorrelated credit problems can indicate a restrictive monetary policy [33][34]

All right. So, we've kind of rolled out a stat that we got that for every week of the government shutdown, it negatively impacts uh quarterly GDP by a tenth of a percent. But as this continues to go on potentially to a new record, uh are we seeing bigger impacts than that than that stat really shows.>> Yeah, I think the more concerning thing would be if the shutdown drags on and spirals into something that would have more prolonged impacts. If government contractors and vendors have not been paid, we'll thi ...

Uh now to the Fed and uh what investors should expect from the central bank. We've been talking about the Fed all morning. Senior economics reporter Steve Leeman joins us with the latest.Hey Steve. Hey, good morning Andrew. Friday brought out a chorus of Fed hawks and some doves with Fed communications sounding increasingly chaotic.Beth Hammock from Cleveland. Uh Lori Logan from Dallas. Jeffrey Schmidt from Kansas City.All three opposed that October cut and cast doubt on whether they would support a Decembe ...

Market Outlook - The market has experienced six consecutive months of gains, a rare occurrence since 1928, suggesting a strong November ahead with potential increases of 200 to 250 points on the S&P [4][5] - Despite a generally bearish sentiment, with an average sentiment of -11.5% this year, the market has risen by 17%, indicating a potential performance chase by fund managers as over 80% are underperforming their benchmarks [6][7] Inflation and Economic Indicators - Inflation is reportedly declining faster than expected, with true inflation dropping to below 2%, including housing costs, and shelter inflation at 0.16% month-over-month [8][9] - More than 54% of the CPI components are currently deflating, the highest percentage since the onset of COVID-19, suggesting a shift in inflationary pressures [9] Corporate Profitability - Companies are reportedly expanding profits and profit margins despite facing tariff impacts, indicating a potential productivity boom [11] - The market is trying to reconcile the effects of AI on job consumption with corporate profitability, suggesting a complex relationship between technology and economic growth [11][12] Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve's recent hawkish stance has caused unease in the market, particularly affecting sectors like homebuilders and regional banks [10] - There is speculation that the Fed may consider cuts if inflation stabilizes and job growth does not strengthen, which could lead to a dovish outlook [12] Private Markets and Fund Performance - Fund managers are experiencing one of their worst years in nearly 30 years, with many underperforming, which contrasts with the strong performance of public stocks [18][19] - Disappointment in private equity returns is contributing to a bearish sentiment among investors, despite the stock market's overall success [19] Cryptocurrency Insights - The cryptocurrency market is consolidating after significant liquidations, with fundamentals like Ethereum stablecoin volumes and application revenues at all-time highs [20][21] - Predictions suggest potential rallies in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices towards the end of the year, with targets of 15,200 for Bitcoin and 7,000 for Ethereum [21]

Group 1 - Political decisions, particularly under President Trump's leadership, have introduced a new level of unpredictability in the markets, causing concern among Americans regarding the security of their finances [1] - Financial planners emphasize the importance of having a goals-based financial plan to navigate economic uncertainty, which helps manage both long-term objectives and day-to-day cash flow [3][4] - The Trump administration's tax reforms, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), offer various tax breaks that are set to expire soon, prompting the need for individuals to act quickly to benefit from these provisions [5][6] Group 2 - Recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may indicate the beginning of an easing cycle, but inflation remains unpredictable due to tariff policies and potential changes in consumer prices [6][7] - Inflation expectations have cooled recently, but ongoing tariff pressures and tax policy changes could lead to increased costs for goods and services, making it crucial for individuals to stay informed and adjust their financial strategies accordingly [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the financial planning of an individual named Devon, who has received a $200,000 windfall and is considering how to invest it for retirement, aiming for $100,000 a year in passive income by age 67 [5][10]. Investment Strategy - Devon's investment strategy should involve a mix of stocks and bonds, with a heavier allocation to stocks in the early years and a shift towards more stable assets like bonds as retirement approaches [6][16]. - A conservative estimate of a 7% return on the $200,000 investment over 22 years would result in approximately $886,000, which may not be sufficient to generate the desired $100,000 in passive income solely from investment returns [7][10]. Passive Income Sources - The article highlights that a diversified portfolio could yield a dividend income of around $44,000 annually, assuming a 5% yield on the $886,000 portfolio [9]. - Social Security benefits are also a significant component of passive income, with projections estimating a monthly benefit of $5,785 in 22 years, leading to an annual income of about $69,430 [9][10]. Retirement Planning Considerations - The average retirement savings for Americans aged 45 to 54 is reported to be $115,000, indicating that Devon's financial situation is relatively favorable compared to her peers [3]. - Inflation poses a risk to retirement income, but Social Security benefits are adjusted for cost-of-living increases, which can help mitigate this risk [11][12]. Investment Types - The article contrasts value stocks, which typically provide higher dividends and stable growth, with growth stocks, which focus on rapid growth but often pay little to no dividends [13][14]. - A balanced approach that includes both value stocks and bonds is recommended for generating passive income while maintaining portfolio stability during retirement [15][16].

Pakistan’s inflation quickened last month as food prices jumped, driven by supply disruptions stemming from severe floods and the closure of the Afghan border amid heightened tensions between the two neighbors https://t.co/tUdXyhc9EK ...

Switzerland’s inflation unexpectedly slowed to near zero, adding pressure on the central bank to push back against the strength of its currency https://t.co/zZ3sfosp7I ...

Turkish inflation slowed more than expected in October, in a boost to the central bank’s determination to continue cutting rates https://t.co/3rvFMYJFIG ...