Economic Overview - U.S. stocks have experienced a rally due to impressive economic data, leading to optimism among investors regarding potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][8] - Expectations for a rate cut in September increased after inflation data showed a slower-than-expected rise [2][8] Inflation Data - The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month in July, lower than the consensus estimate of 0.3% [4] - Year-over-year, CPI increased by 2.7% in July, also below the expected 2.8% [5] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% in July, aligning with expectations, while year-over-year core CPI increased by 3.1%, slightly above the 3% forecast [5][6] Consumer Discretionary Stocks - Investing in consumer discretionary stocks is recommended due to the favorable economic outlook and anticipated rate cuts [2][11] - Notable consumer discretionary stocks include: - **The Walt Disney Company (DIS)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 17.7% for the current year, with revenues of $91.4 billion in fiscal 2024 [9][10] - **Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 40.9% for the current year [12][13] - **Hasbro, Inc. (HAS)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 19.5% for the current year [14] - **Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 31.4% for the current year [15][16] - **Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 19.8% for the current year [17]

Group 1: Market Trends - Small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, gained over 1% in midday trading, contrasting with the S&P 500, which remained relatively unchanged due to major technology stocks [2][4] - The Russell 2000 has increased more than 4% this week, indicating it is on track for its best week since May [3] - The CNBC Magnificent 7 Index, tracking seven megacap technology companies, lost 0.3% after reaching a 52-week high earlier in the day [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - Investors are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting on September 16-17, which would particularly benefit small companies reliant on borrowed capital [4][5] - Interest rate futures traders are pricing in a nearly 100% likelihood of a rate cut from the current 4.35% to a range of 4.50% at the September meeting, a significant increase from less than 60% a month ago [5] - A growing number of economic and political voices are advocating for rate cuts, especially following weaker-than-expected job growth and a cooler-than-expected consumer inflation report [6] Group 3: Political Influence - President Trump and his allies have criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell's rate policy, urging the Federal Open Market Committee to ease monetary policy [8] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that the Fed should lower rates by at least 1.5 percentage points, proposing a 50 basis point cut in September [9] Group 4: Performance Comparison - Despite recent gains, small caps have underperformed compared to larger stocks, with the Russell 2000 advancing less than 26% since the introduction of the ChatGPT app in late 2022, while the S&P 500 has climbed 64% during the same period [10]

Economic Outlook - Pre-market futures are up following all-time closing highs from the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, driven by optimism around potential rate cuts by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary suggested a 50 basis points cut in the Fed funds rate, which would lower rates to 3.75-4.00%, a level last seen in December 2022 [2][1] - July Inflation Rate reported at +2.7%, alleviating concerns about tariffs re-igniting inflation [2] Inflation and Price Trends - Current inflation is below +2.0%, with sub-3.0% inflation expected to be absorbed by the economy without significant disturbance [3] - Concerns arise about potential inflation increases if interest rates decrease while tariffs rise, with projections of 2-3 rate cuts leading to a Fed funds rate of 3.50-3.75% amid rising inflation [4] - Recent CPI report showed food prices steady, gasoline down -9.5%, and used cars and trucks up +4.8%, indicating a core CPI at a 5-month high [4] Producer Price Index (PPI) Expectations - Upcoming PPI report for July is projected to show +0.2% on headline and +0.3% on core, indicating potential tariff effects before retailers adjust prices [5] Company Earnings - Brinker International (EAT) reported fiscal Q4 earnings of $2.49 per share, exceeding expectations and showing significant growth from $1.61 per share year-over-year [6] - Revenues of $1.46 billion surpassed estimates by +2%, with a +16% growth in restaurant traffic [7] - Maggiano's Little Italy franchise saw a slight decline of -0.4%, but Chili's experienced exceptional growth of +24% year-over-year [7] Market Expectations - Cisco Systems (CSCO) is expected to report earnings after the closing bell, with shares up +20% year-to-date and projected earnings growth of +11.5% year-over-year [8]

Market Overview - Major indexes on Wall Street have reached multiple all-time closing highs recently, but have experienced volatility due to uncertainties surrounding President Trump's new tariffs and potential inflation increases [1][4] - The ongoing volatility may persist as market participants are concerned about the economic impact of the tariffs and rising inflation [2][6] Dividend-Paying Stocks - Dividend-paying stocks are recommended as they tend to perform better during market volatility, providing a steady income stream and reducing the risk of sharp price swings [2][3] - Historically, companies that pay dividends have outperformed non-dividend-paying companies during periods of market instability [3] Specific Companies and Their Dividends - **Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)**: Announced a dividend of $0.12 per share with a yield of 1.25% and a payout ratio of 26%. The company has increased its dividend four times in the past five years [9][10] - **Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)**: Declared a dividend of $1.10 per share with a yield of 1.09% and a payout ratio of 20%. The company has increased its dividend six times over the last five years [12][10] - **DHT Holdings, Inc. (DHT)**: Announced a dividend of $0.24 per share with a yield of 5.25% and a payout ratio of 56%. DHT has increased its dividend seven times in the past five years [14][10]

Core Viewpoint - The financial sector, particularly certain stocks like Berkshire Hathaway, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo, presents attractive investment opportunities despite being overshadowed by technology stocks [1][2][10]. Group 1: Company Valuations - Berkshire Hathaway has reached a market cap of $1 trillion, making it the largest financial company, with its core business in insurance and a significant stock portfolio valued at $300 billion [2][4]. - Bank of America reported a 7% year-over-year earnings growth and a 5% increase in customer deposits, indicating strong performance in a challenging consumer environment [5]. - Wells Fargo, now free from its asset cap, is positioned to benefit from falling interest rates, enhancing its consumer-focused business model [6][10]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Regulatory Environment - Both Bank of America and Wells Fargo could benefit from a potential reduction in corporate tax rates and a generally looser regulatory environment under the Trump administration [7]. - The financial sector is experiencing a shift, with interest rates expected to fall, which could positively impact banks like Bank of America and Wells Fargo [5][6]. Group 3: Comparisons with Other Financial Companies - JPMorgan Chase, while a strong institution, trades at a premium valuation compared to Bank of America and Wells Fargo, which may limit its attractiveness [8]. - Visa and Mastercard, despite being dominant players in the payment processing market, have high P/E ratios of 33 and 39, raising questions about their future growth potential [8].

押注美联储下月降息的债券投资者正面临一个潜在障碍：通胀。 周二将发布的7月消费者价格指数（CPI）将为交易员提供线索，揭示特朗普的关税政策如何影响成 本。彭博社调查的经济学家预计，核心通胀年率将升至3%，为2月以来最高水平。 "市场正寻求进一步确认：贸易政策调整是否已传导至商品通胀上升，"道明证券（TD Securities）美国 利率策略主管根纳季·戈德堡（Gennadiy Goldberg）表示，"其他条件不变的情况下，更高的通胀数据可 能会让美联储希望在降息前看到更多数据。" 降息压力渐增 上月美联储维持利率不变后，鲍威尔重申，官员们需要更多时间评估关税影响后再降息，这表明在特朗 普持续施压要求降息的背景下，他仍保持耐心。 摩根大通策略师周一表示，若CPI数据符合市场预期，9月美国通胀保值国债（TIPS）多头头寸的"票息 收益（carry）"可能转为负值，并补充称在数据公布前，他们对盈亏平衡通胀率持中性态度。 然而，物价快速上涨的风险是美联储主席鲍威尔以及华尔街部分人士的心头大患。美国银行、阿波罗全 球管理公司和纽约梅隆银行近期报告均将滞胀列为重大担忧。 高通胀与经济增长疲软并存，也对美元构成风险——美 ...

Core Insights - Intercorp Financial Services Inc. (IFS) is expected to report second-quarter 2025 results on August 11, with anticipated year-over-year earnings growth driven by higher revenues despite increased provisions for credit losses and expenses [1][10]. Revenue Factors - A significant portion of IFS's revenue comes from spread income, and a recent 25 basis point cut in Peru's benchmark interest rate to 4.50% is expected to support loan demand [3]. - The company is likely to have experienced a decline in deposit costs, contributing to an increase in net interest and similar income, as well as an expansion in net interest margin due to lower deposit repricing [4]. - Strong asset inflows from a decent equity market performance are expected to enhance IFS's assets under management, benefiting its wealth management operations and increasing net fee income from banking services and credit card activity [5][10]. Expense Factors - Higher salaries, employee benefits, and administrative expenses are anticipated to keep the expense base elevated, alongside increased costs related to the company's digitization efforts [6][10]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for IFS's earnings is $1.07 per share, reflecting a 62.1% increase from the previous year [2][10]. - The company's earnings surprise history shows it has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in four of the last five quarters, with an average beat of 17.26% [2]. Zacks Model Insights - The quantitative model indicates that IFS lacks the necessary combination of positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank better than 3 (Hold) for a conclusive prediction of an earnings beat this time [7][8].

Group 1: Labor Market Insights - The labor market in the U.S. is showing signs of weakness, with only 73,000 jobs added in July and an unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [2] - The three-month average job gains have dropped to just 35,000, indicating a slowdown in hiring [2] - Fed President Mary Daly expressed concern that further slowing in the labor market could lead to a rapid decline [2] Group 2: Inflation and Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to temporarily increase inflation, but Daly does not foresee a lasting impact [3] - Underlying inflation, excluding tariffs, has been gradually decreasing and is expected to continue this trend due to restrictive monetary policy and a slowing economy [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stated that no decision has been made regarding a potential rate cut in September, emphasizing the need to monitor tariff impacts closely [4] - New York Fed President John Williams acknowledged the job market remains solid but expressed concern over downward revisions in hiring [4] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Growth Stocks - Growth stocks are likely to perform better in a low-rate environment, as lower borrowing costs facilitate company expansion [5] - The attractiveness of fixed-income investments diminishes with lower rates, prompting investors to seek higher returns in equity markets [5] Group 5: Recommended ETFs - Several top-ranked growth-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are highlighted for potential investment if the Fed begins cutting rates: - Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) – Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [6] - Invesco S&P 500 Pure Growth ETF (RPG) – Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [6] - Invesco Large Cap Growth ETF (PWB) – Zacks Rank 1 [6] - Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF (VOOG) – Zacks Rank 1 [6] - iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) – Zacks Rank 1 [6]

The Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting came and passed precisely as expected: without any change to its benchmark effective federal funds rate (EFFR). Chairman Jerome Powell and the other Fed governors noted their post-meeting press release that the central bank will be holding its EFFR steady in the 4.25% to 4.50% range, noting that "uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated." The financials sector sold off on the news despite the announcement being largely anticipated by economists and Wall ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with downward revisions in May and June erasing a total of 258,000 jobs, marking the largest two-month revision since May 2020 [1] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, aligning with forecasts but remaining near historic lows [1][2] Market Reactions - Wall Street analysts are reassessing their economic forecasts due to the disappointing July jobs report, indicating a potential loss of strength in the labor market [2] - Following the weak labor market data, market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September surged to 80%, up from 38% the previous day [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Leslie Falcone from UBS Global Wealth Management anticipates the Fed will begin cutting rates in September, with a total of about 100 basis points in consecutive cuts [4] - Fed officials had previously expressed concerns about labor market softness, which now appear to be validated [5] Trade Tensions - Recent escalations in trade tensions, including a surprise 39% tariff on Switzerland by President Trump, have added to investor uncertainty, catching markets off guard [6] Investment Strategies - In light of economic uncertainty, investors are advised to consider defensive exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that may provide stability [7] - Specific ETFs mentioned include: - Invesco QQQ Low Volatility ETF (QQLV), which tracks low volatility stocks within the Nasdaq-100 Index and charges 25 basis points in fees [8] - Cullen Enhanced Equity Income ETF (DIVP), focusing on large-cap, dividend-paying companies with a yield of 7.31% and charging 55 basis points in fees [9] - S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL), targeting companies with a history of increasing dividends for at least 25 years, charging 35 basis points in fees [10] - First Trust Utilities AlphaDEX Fund (FXU), designed to identify stocks from the Russell 1000 Index that may generate positive alpha, charging 63 basis points in fees [11][12] - US Aerospace & Defense iShares ETF (ITA), measuring the performance of the aerospace and defense sector, charging 40 basis points in fees [13]