Economic Projections - Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects higher inflation and unemployment this year with slowing economic growth [1] - Population growth is anticipated to be significantly lower due to immigration changes, impacting jobs numbers [2][3][4] - Labor supply is falling dramatically, with population numbers expected to be several hundred thousand fewer each year over the next 10 years, and approximately 1 million fewer this year alone [4] Impact of Policies - The reconciliation bill is boosting the economy, while slowing immigration and tariffs are having a negative impact [3] - Tariffs are raising inflation and slowing down the economy, affecting both businesses and households [3] - Tariffs put in place since January 20th are projected to reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over the next 10 years, consisting of $33 trillion in revenue and $700 billion in averted debt costs [10][11] Uncertainty and Assumptions - There is a lot of uncertainty in the economy due to changing policies and tariffs [8] - CBO follows the administration's actions day by day and assumes that current policies will continue indefinitely [9] - CBO expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 75 basis points between now and the end of January [14] - CBO updates its forecast a few times a year, and inflation since January has been a bit higher than expected [20]

The Fed has been so far behind the curve it is almost comical.They spent the first half of the year telling everyone they couldn't cut rates, but now it is obvious they should have been cutting rates all along. ...

Economic Outlook - Investors are concerned about slowing job growth and tariff-related costs [1] - Investors anticipate that tax cuts and falling interest rates will stimulate economic growth [1]

Sri Lanka’s economy grew faster-than-expected last quarter, as lower interest rates aided business activity and eased some tariff-related pain https://t.co/SRo9JeG3is ...

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS THE FEDERAL RESERVE WILL MAKE BIG RATE CUTS THIS WEEK. ...

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 Probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates this week rises to 100%. https://t.co/eOc41CSOv0 ...

RT Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano)I sat down with @jvisserlabs to discuss discuss Oracle going up 40%, what is going on in the stock market, the job revision, the latest in artificial intelligence, bitcoin, interest rates, and where asset prices could be headed.Enjoy!YouTube: https://t.co/lpHLMtNbQ4Spotify: https://t.co/YfXJCJhnxVApple: https://t.co/TwtRj5lVmTTIMESTAMPS:0:00 - Intro0:59 - Why are there massive moves in the stock market?3:38 - What’s going on with inflation and tariffs9:25 - Is there an ar ...

I sat down with @jvisserlabs to discuss discuss Oracle going up 40%, what is going on in the stock market, the job revision, the latest in artificial intelligence, bitcoin, interest rates, and where asset prices could be headed.Enjoy!YouTube: https://t.co/lpHLMtNbQ4Spotify: https://t.co/YfXJCJhnxVApple: https://t.co/TwtRj5lVmTTIMESTAMPS:0:00 - Intro0:59 - Why are there massive moves in the stock market?3:38 - What’s going on with inflation and tariffs9:25 - Is there an argument to be bearish?12:48 - Is ther ...

One reason for the recovery, however fragile, is that inflation has been almost conquered and interest rates have come down. The effect is visible in the gloomy-but-improving outlook of European construction https://t.co/HuIv2q8wDP ...

Market Outlook & Fed Policy - The market has priced in many positives, leaving room for the Federal Reserve to disappoint next week [2] - The key focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the committee's rate guidance for the end of 2026; a convergence with the rates market is needed to avoid disappointment [3][4] - A weakening labor market is a defining macro characteristic, suggesting growth-side risks for the equity market and the need for a bond position [10][11] Investment Strategies - Broadening investment portfolios beyond tech is recommended, considering areas like small caps, energy, and international markets [6][7][8] - Small caps are poised to benefit from declining interest rates due to their floating rate and short-term debt structures, along with less regulation and more M&A activity [7] - Offsetting equity positions with a bond position (duration) is suggested, especially given the potential for a pullback in the second half of September [9] Interest Rate & Bond Market - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut next week [2][3] - The yield curve is positively sloped now, suggesting that rates across the curve should come down as the Fed starts its rate-cutting cycle, unlike the previous year when the yield curve was inverted [16][17] - Expect the 10-year Treasury yield to break below 4%, surprising many due to recency bias related to the bond market's reaction to previous rate cuts [18] Economic Indicators - Despite concerns about the labor market, other data points like GDP growth, company earnings, and consumer strength suggest a continued strong economy [13]