Key Takeaways - Dollar General's stock surged 14% after beating quarterly earnings estimates and raising its full-year forecast, indicating strong demand from cost-conscious consumers across income categories [2][7] - Intel's shares dropped nearly 8% after reports that the company plans to retain its networking and communications unit, reversing earlier speculation about a potential sale [5][6] - GE Vernova's stock advanced close to 5% following an increase in price target by Barclays, driven by strong demand for its energy technology products [3] - Meta Platforms' stock rose 3.4% amid reports of potential budget cuts of up to 30% for its metaverse business, which may include layoffs [4] - Kroger's shares fell 4.6% after reporting lower-than-expected revenue for the third quarter, despite adjusted earnings per share surpassing estimates [6][9] - Marriott International's shares declined 3.5% as executives indicated a more subdued outlook for revenue per available room due to softness in U.S. markets [9]

What's going on guys? Today I got a great conversation with Darius Dale for you. In this conversation we talk about the deep divisions at the Federal Reserve. Are they going to cut rates in December? Who is going to be the next leader of the Federal Reserve? And how is the Fed actually impacting different asset prices? What is 42 macro doing to navigate all the chaos up, down, sideways, backwards? Prices are going everywhere. People are completely confused as to how the Fed is going to act. And the market i ...

Jobless Claims Data - Initial Jobless Claims reported at 191K and Continuing Claims at 1.939 million, significantly lower than recent trends, indicating potential inaccuracies in data or a resilient labor market [1][2] - Current job losses in the private sector reported by ADP and anticipated layoffs from major corporations contrast with low jobless claims, suggesting that the labor market may be experiencing structural changes [2][3] - The latest Initial Claims figures are the lowest since late September 2022, with Continuing Claims remaining below the psychologically significant 2 million mark since Memorial Day [3] Earnings Reports - Dollar General (DG) exceeded earnings expectations by 39%, reporting $1.28 per share against a consensus of 92 cents, with revenues of $10.65 billion, leading to a pre-market share increase of over 5% [5] - Kroger (KR) reported earnings of $1.05 per share, slightly above estimates, but revenues of $33.86 billion fell short of expectations, resulting in a pre-market share decline of 2.8% [6] - Bank of Montreal (BMO) reported earnings of $2.36 per share, surpassing estimates by 9.26%, with revenues of $6.73 billion exceeding projections by 5.24%, leading to flat share performance [7] - Build-a-Bear Workshops (BBW) showed mixed results with a bottom-line beat of 12.7% at 62 cents per share, but a sales miss of 1.28% at $122.68 million, causing a pre-market share drop of 6.6% [8]

Market attention this week will focus on the US economic news. On Friday, Sep personal spending is expected to increase by +0.3% and Sep personal income is expected to climb +0.3% m/m. Also on Friday, the Sep core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is expected to climb by +0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y. Finally, the University of Michigan's Dec consumer sentiment index is expected to climb by +1.0 to 52.0.President Trump said on Tuesday that he will announce his selection for the new Fed Chair ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that lower interest rates may not be forthcoming in December, despite some members advocating for cuts [1] - The Fed's official mandate includes full employment, price stability, and moderate interest rates, but there is an unspoken focus on labor markets and price levels [2] - A shift in thinking about monetary policy is necessary, as interest rates should reflect the value of capital over time rather than merely being seen as the price of money [3] Group 2 - Interest rates should adjust based on supply and demand in investment markets, and stability can hinder necessary flexibility [4] - The Fed does not directly set interest rates but establishes targets for short-term rates, which reflect its monetary policy stance [5] - Falling interest rates are often misinterpreted as a sign of looser monetary policy, but they can also indicate tighter policy when liquidity needs are not met [6][7] Group 3 - The Fed's interest rate targets are estimates aimed at achieving maximum employment and a stable dollar, but their accuracy depends on the Fed's economic models [8]

There's a lot of questions about whether or not the market will push back against a Hassett fed that could be cutting rates aggressively. What do you make of this debate. Morning.I think it's an interesting debate, no doubt. And if you look at the two year yields, they tell you a big story. Now, what is priced in by the markets.The markets are thinking that the terminal rate is going to be 3%. Well, that is possible. And there's there have been concerns, as you mentioned, you know, about whether that has th ...

Emerging markets left the Fed behind on the descent from high interest rates, say @annerquaye and @johnauthers (via @opinion) https://t.co/6XOz5wvKaP ...

Core Insights - Credit cards are seen as both a convenience and a potential financial lifeline, but reliance on them may become riskier in 2026 due to economic factors [1] Inflation Impact - The inflation rate in the United States reached 2.9% in August 2025, marking the highest level since January 2025, with significant price increases in food and vehicles [2] - High inflation leads to increased costs when using credit cards for purchases, making borrowing more expensive [3] Interest Rate Uncertainty - Individual banks have the autonomy to adjust credit card interest rates, making future predictions for 2026 challenging [4] - The Federal Reserve's actions on the federal funds rate can influence banks' prime rates, but banks may not immediately lower rates in response to Fed actions due to various economic factors [5] - Credit card companies can increase interest rates for new purchases after one year of account ownership, which may lead to higher costs for consumers in 2026 amid economic uncertainty [5]

Silver traded near an all-time high, after US payroll data reinforced bets that the Fed will cut interest rates in its final policy meeting of the year https://t.co/s4GBcLTkM7 ...

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - The S&P 500 equity market is broadening outside of the MAG7, with rotation inside MAG7 expected to be a major theme as interest rates move down, indicating optimism on equities and a potential Santa Claus rally in December [2][3] - Decoupling between equities and crypto, specifically Bitcoin, occurred around April, suggesting that associating equities and crypto in the same context may not be relevant in the near future [4] - New organic buyers are entering the Bitcoin market, exemplified by Vanguard opening access to more buyers and JP Morgan's involvement, with IBIT experiencing $32 billion in inflows this year [6] - Interest rates are anticipated to decrease, with the Fed potentially cutting rates by 25 basis points, which is expected to support equities [13] - A decrease in the ten-year note yield to 35% is expected to incentivize home buyers and benefit market laggers, including the financial sector [14] Bitcoin & Crypto Analysis - Bitcoin has historically experienced approximately 20 pullbacks of 25% or more since CME Group started trading Bitcoin futures in 2017, including three pullbacks of 50% or more [5] - The market may want to revisit the April low of $76000 for Bitcoin [6] - Crypto exposure is being considered by advisors, with discussions around allocations of 1% to 2%, similar to dipping toes into commodities like gold and silver [10][11] - There is a debate regarding Bitcoin's fundamental price value, with some questioning its use case within the US and viewing it more as a community-driven phenomenon [8][9]