Bunge’s second-quarter profits fell to the lowest in seven years as lingering uncertainty over tariffs and US biofuel policy continued to pressure crop traders and processors https://t.co/Ujg4NRkvN7 ...

Sales Performance - Toyota Motor achieved record global sales in the first half of 2025 [1] Market Dynamics - Strong demand for hybrid vehicles in core markets contributed to the sales record [1] - Tariffs imposed by Trump on cars imported to the US created headwinds for Toyota [1]

Time now for money, power, politics. And tonight, we start with this headline from the New York Times. Quote, "Trump is winning his trade war. What will it mean for the actual economy?" We've seen him use his leverage to announce new trade deals around the world that include big tariff rates, levels that would have seemed unimaginable 6 months ago.Let's be clear, Trump is remaking the world economy around tariffs, something he has been talking about for more than a decade. He's defying expectations. And rig ...

Interest Rates and Federal Reserve - High interest rates negatively impact families by increasing costs on credit cards, car loans, and mortgages [1] - The independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) is crucial for maintaining confidence in the financial system [5] - Political pressure on the Fed undermines confidence in the financial system [5] - Lowering interest rates could help ease housing issues [6] Housing Crisis and Supply - America faces a housing crisis with rising prices due to insufficient housing supply, needing approximately 7 million more housing units [8][9] - A bipartisan bill aims to encourage more housing development across the country [10][11] - The housing problem is complex, requiring multiple solutions [12] Political Issues - The Jeffrey Epstein story is impacting the agenda and sucking up oxygen that could be used to work on a housing bill [19] - Transparency is needed regarding the Epstein files [18][21]

Stellantis expects a €1.2 billion hit from tariffs in second half of this year as it restores guidance following the EU-US trade deal https://t.co/jUgiuUv4By ...

Market Trends & Trade Impact - A trade deal with the EU removes a negative surprise from the markets [2] - US consumers are likely to bear the brunt of tariffs, potentially slowing the US economy [3] - Trade concerns may fade if the European deal is finalized and China trade issues are postponed [2] - The market has largely priced in a positive scenario, potentially overvaluing current conditions [7] - Fear-based investing has generally performed poorly in the past decade [11] Investment Strategies & Sector Focus - Staying invested is recommended, particularly in sectors with secular drivers unrelated to trade, such as AI [13] - Favored sectors include US large-cap equities, tech, communication services, financials, and utilities [13][14] - Less favored sectors include small caps, emerging market equities, and consumer discretionary, due to their greater exposure to trade and tariffs [15] - Equities, especially in favored sectors, are relatively attractive compared to bonds, which offer near-zero after-tax, after-inflation yields [16] Market Valuation & Outlook - The S&P 500 is up 12% since the Liberation Day announcement, exceeding initial expectations [10] - NASDAQ 100's forward earnings multiple is at 28 times, below the pandemic peak of 30 times [11]

So we have a Fed meeting and then we have a jobs report. Let's start with the Fed meeting. The decision itself, not expecting too many fireworks there.But as always, there's a lot to talk about in that press conference, Julia. Absolutely. There's a lot going on.Of course, Chair Powell will put on his best poker face and reassuring voice and tone, which he's very, very good at, and say that, look, that things are there's a lot of disruption going on so far. You know, you've got a little bit of creeping highe ...

Foreign companies that have borne the costs of Donald Trump’s tariffs until now may not be able to absorb them for ever. The president loves defying his adversaries, in the economics profession and beyond. But he is always his own worst enemy https://t.co/xrh25x0KPT ...

Economic Indicators & Fed Policy - The week includes the Jolt survey, consumer confidence data, and the Fed survey [2] - ADP number is expected to be on the low side, with 82,000 expected [3] - GDP adjustments are anticipated due to import handling [3] - The Fed's preferred inflation indicator will be released [4] - Non-farm payrolls are expected to be 102,000, but previous reports have surprised to the upside [4] - The Fed meeting and announcement are significant, with potential dissents from Waller and Bowman [5] - There's a very low probability (2.1%) of a Fed rate cut in July, but a 66% probability for September and 63% for December, indicating expectations of two cuts this year [6][7] Tariffs & Economic Impact - The removal of crazy high tariffs and uncertainty about tariffs is noted [9][10] - The focus shifts to the economic impacts of tariffs, including potential inflation and weakened growth [10] - The stock market's reaction to these economic factors is being observed, with some suggesting a potential disconnect between the stock market and the economic outlook [10][11]

Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum is getting squeezed between Donald Trump's tariffs and sanctions and her party's political scandals, says @JPSpinetto (via @opinion) https://t.co/50kH57Pfdd ...