bigsolana inflation reduction proposal is now livetl;dr — we are proposing to speed up the existing solana disinflation rate by 2xno complex mechanisms and no adverse cuts, and after alpenglow (and vote reduction)we don't need to leak this value ...

Economic Outlook - The job market shows mixed signals with a three-month average job growth of about 62,000, primarily concentrated in healthcare and leisure sectors, while the unemployment rate has ticked up due to higher labor force participation [2][7][12] - Economic activity remains relatively resilient, with robust demand from both consumers and firms, although the labor market has softened [7][19] - Inflation remains elevated, largely due to tariffs, and is expected to continue before a benign disinflation scenario emerges [8][10] Federal Reserve Policy - The current Fed policy is viewed as mildly to moderately restrictive, which is deemed appropriate to ensure a return to disinflation as tariffs are absorbed [9][10][23] - There is hesitancy to cut rates further, especially after two cuts earlier in the year, as resilient demand could exert upward pressure on prices [11][14] - The Fed is considering a range of economic scenarios, acknowledging the complexity of addressing disparate economic conditions, including a K-shaped recovery where low-income individuals struggle while wealthier segments thrive [17][18] Global Economic Landscape - The theme of the upcoming economic conference focuses on the US economy amidst a changing global landscape, highlighting increases in global risk and uncertainty, as well as potential fragmentation in trade and capital flows [25][27] - The conference will address the implications of these changes for multinational firms, tariffs, and the overall economic environment [26][28]

Market Environment - The recent government shutdown did not negatively impact the equity market rally, and there was relief when it ended [3][4] - The political and fiscal disruptions are expected to continue influencing market volatility [4][6] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges with inflation stalling around 3% and concerns about a weakening labor market [8][10] - There is speculation about potential rate cuts, with a belief that the Fed may cut rates in December due to economic slowing [11][12] - The economy is described as bifurcated, with different growth rates for lower-end consumers and larger companies [12][14] Economic Outlook - The trend of disinflation is expected to continue, which may support further rate cuts [16][23] - The composition of the Federal Reserve is anticipated to become more dovish, which could benefit interest-sensitive sectors of the economy [22][23] Technology and AI Investment - There is optimism about the long-term potential of artificial intelligence as a technological game-changer, although the market is still in early stages [24][25] - Concerns exist about the potential for excessive debt accumulation in building AI infrastructure [25][26] Credit Market Dynamics - The current environment is characterized by cyclical risks rather than structural risks, with no widespread structural issues identified at this time [27][29] - Investors are advised to conduct thorough due diligence to understand the underlying value of investments [31][32]

Group 1: Currency Movements - The Pound Sterling (GBP) reached seven-month lows near 1.3000 against the US Dollar (USD) before recovering some ground due to buyer intervention [1] - The USD strengthened significantly, reaching its highest level in five months against six major currency rivals, driven by safe-haven flows [1] - The GBP/USD pair faced downward pressure from broad USD strength, challenging the 1.3000 psychological level before staging a recovery later in the week [4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Data - A "sell everything" theme emerged in the market as traders reacted to a correction in global indices following an AI-driven rally, leading to declines in US tech stocks and gold sales to cover equity losses [2] - The USD found support from reduced expectations of a December interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, following strong private sector employment and services activity data [3] - US private payrolls increased by 42,000 jobs in October, surpassing expectations, while the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4, indicating solid new orders [4] Group 3: Labor Market Concerns - Concerns about the weakening US labor market were reignited, with a 183.1% monthly surge in layoffs reported, marking the worst October in over two decades [5] - The odds of a Fed rate cut next month increased to 69% following the latest jobs data, compared to a previous estimate of 62% [6] - The Bank of England maintained its key Bank Rate at 4%, with a narrow 5-4 vote, indicating that future rate cuts will depend on inflation outlook [6][7]

Company Overview - Public Storage (NYSE: PSA) is a leading real estate investment trust (REIT) focusing on self-storage facilities, providing storage solutions across various locations [1] - As a REIT, the company benefits from tax advantages and is required to distribute a significant portion of its income to shareholders [1] - Public Storage competes with other self-storage providers such as Extra Space Storage and CubeSmart [1] Stock Performance and Analyst Sentiment - The consensus target price for PSA's stock has shown fluctuations, with the average price target recently at $324, up from $321 in the previous quarter, indicating positive sentiment among analysts [2] - A year ago, the average price target was $330, reflecting more optimistic expectations for the company's growth or market conditions at that time [3] - Analyst Keegan Carl from Berenberg Bank has set a price target of $357 for PSA, reflecting strong confidence in the company's future performance [3][6] Earnings Reports and Market Outlook - Public Storage is set to release its third-quarter 2025 earnings results on October 29, 2025, with a conference call scheduled for the following day [4] - The recent earnings season for REITs concluded positively, with many companies surpassing expectations, which may contribute to a favorable outlook for PSA [4] - Investors are encouraged to monitor upcoming earnings reports and company announcements to understand potential future movements in PSA's stock price [5][6]

In late 2024, the United Kingdom experienced significant disinflation. However, this trend reversed in 2025 as CPI inflation increased sharply by July and remained at that level through September with inflation averaging 2.8% in Q1 of 2025 before climbing to 3.5% in Q2. The sharp reversal stems from a combination of domestic policydriven cost increases, global commodity pressures, and lingering effects from past economic shocks.Food price inflation has been the primary driver, rising 5.1% in August of 2025 ...

Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to experience a reacceleration over the next 12 months, with inflation likely to remain contained [3][4] - Three disinflationary trends are anticipated: the impact of tariffs will lessen, wage inflation is expected to decrease, and shelter inflation will also decline [3][4] Stock Market Sentiment - There is a selective bullish sentiment towards technology and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, despite concerns about potential bubbles [2][5] - Current financial conditions are described as loose, which supports the ongoing momentum in the stock market [6] AI Sector Insights - The narrative around AI is seen as a transformational innovation, with significant capital expenditure (capex) expected to drive growth [7] - The current compute capacity is predicted to need five times the existing amount to support AI advancements [7] Bubble Indicators - Key indicators for identifying bubble territory include a disconnection between price and fundamentals, extended positioning among retail and institutional investors, and a stronger positive narrative around the technology [10] Healthcare Sector Perspective - The US healthcare sector is viewed as a diversifier away from AI investments, with expectations that it will benefit significantly from AI advancements [11][12] - Factors contributing to a bullish outlook on healthcare include reduced development costs for drugs due to AI, clarity around tariffs, and favorable valuation conditions [12][13]

Monetary Policy Strategy - The Fed's monetary policy should be forecast-dependent, not data-dependent, as current data is backward-looking [1] - Monetary policy operates with a lag, typically 12 to 18 months, influencing the economy [2] - Policy decisions should anticipate economic conditions 1 to 2 years in the future, not based on past price levels [3] Inflation Outlook - Substantial disinflation is expected in the coming year, particularly from housing and shelter inflation [4] - Shelter inflation constitutes approximately 45% of core CPI and about half of core PCE [4]

Market Overview - The market indexes are relatively stable, but there is a noticeable increase in the dollar and the VIX, indicating a potential shift towards defensiveness in the market [1][3] - The dollar index (DXY) has been holding in the 97-98 range, which is crucial for future movements [3] Energy Sector - The energy sector has shown signs of life recently, with traditional oil companies like Exxon and Devon starting to perform well [4][5] - There is a concern that the strength in the energy sector may come at the expense of consumer discretionary and banking sectors, which have been leading the market [5] Defense Stocks - European defense stocks have performed well throughout the year, with companies like Rhyatel reaching new highs [6] Global Market Trends - Despite some fatigue in the S&P, global markets are showing strength, with new highs in markets like NIK and China [7] - There are indications of a global economic reacceleration, as seen in the performance of Chinese stocks and commodities like copper [9] Bond Yields and Mortgage Rates - Bond yields have remained stable over the past two years, with the long end of the curve not breaking higher despite opportunities [10][14] - The mortgage backdrop has improved significantly, with 30-year fixed rates dropping from 7.5% to around 6.25% [13] Investment Strategy - The focus remains on sectors like industrials, financials, and technology, with a particular interest in banks and semiconductors [17][18] - The current environment is unique, as the Fed is cutting rates while banks are at all-time highs, which historically has been a positive signal for banks [18]

Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a reaceleration in job growth and GDP, with projections indicating potential surprises to the upside for Q3 and Q4 [3][10] - The Dow is projected to reach 50,000 and the S&P 500 to 7,000 by Q1 of 2026, driven by earnings reaceleration and economic growth [12] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates again, with expectations of one or two more cuts, although this is not seen as the beginning of a grand rate-cutting cycle [9][10] - The Fed is perceived to be behind the curve in its decision-making, with suggestions that they should have cut rates earlier in the year [8] Inflation Trends - Inflation is expected to stabilize in the upper twos to low threes, with a long-term trend towards lower inflation rates [5][4] - The current inflation battle is viewed as misdirected, with a belief that the focus should shift to other economic indicators [4][5] Sector Performance - Small caps are favored, with recommendations to buy on pullbacks, as they are expected to perform well despite high valuations in larger stocks [20][21] - Financials and biotech sectors are also viewed positively, with potential opportunities in energy stocks as crude oil prices stabilize [21][22] Market Sentiment - There is a belief that panic selling has occurred, leading to minor pullbacks and a strong performance chase among fund managers [13][15] - The current market rally is seen as a result of significant cash positions held by managers who are now seeking to catch up with benchmarks [15]