Labor Market Data & Politics - The accuracy and volatility of jobs data are questioned, with concerns about potential political influence on data calculation and interpretation [2][4][5] - The administration is perceived to be concerned about political undercurrents affecting data, potentially leading to preemptive actions regarding appointments [2][3] - There's a call for improving the quality of data and allocating more resources to ensure accuracy, especially given revisions in job performance metrics [6][7] Trade Deals & Market Catalysts - Approximately 70% of trade deals have been "inked," but not finalized, with focus shifting to the China deal as a potential market catalyst [8] - The market's reaction to trade deals is diminishing compared to earlier periods, with monetary policy expected to be a more significant driver [10][14] - The negotiator's strategy involves creating disruption to bring trading partners to the table and secure fairer deals for the United States [11][12] Monetary Policy & Economic Impact - Monetary policy is expected to drive markets more than trade deals, especially as investment from enacted bills filters through economic data [14] - The market is conditioned to understand the negotiator's techniques, reducing fear when large numbers are announced in trade negotiations [12] - Examples like Switzerland suggest that initial high numbers in trade disputes can be negotiated down through concessions and investments [12][13]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is horrendous at their collection of data, along with their calculation of economic data, but the President shouldn’t fire the organization’s leader right after a data print the administration doesn’t like.Fire the leader for the fact 1/3 of all inflation metric inputs are made up right now. Fire the leader for incompetence at measuring job growth during the last two administrations.Just do it when people aren’t going to claim it is a political decision. Distracts the conversa ...

It is impossible to trust many government economic data points.Job growth, inflation, and others are all manipulated or inaccurate.Insane problem! https://t.co/SimKILfSIo ...

America’s Economic Data Disaster is Worse Than We Thought https://t.co/luMn6RotRG ...

Investors didn't get the dovish Fed they were hoping for, and that means the economic data, such as tomorrow's jobs report, loom larger than ever https://t.co/5otpYq0fTS ...

The VIX volatility index falling below 15 for the first time since February. For more, let's bring in Mandy Shu, head of derivatives market intelligence for SIBO Global Markets. Mandy, it's always great to see you. Great to be here.It's not just the VIX. I mean, volatility across asset classes, bond volatility is also very low. What does this tell you.Yeah, to me, I think it's a sign that what we're seeing in the markets is very much fundamentally driven, right. The fact that equities keep making new all-ti ...

Joel, just start with you on the tariff back and forth with the EU. I guess what's the advice while this plays out. I I think hold on to your seats because this this back and forth that we've been dealing with uh is unfortunately just part of the norm.Now, we do think we're going to end up with baseline tariffs of around 15%. Uh but Kelly, until we get there, these negotiations, it's going to create some volatility in the markets. It's going to create a little bit of anxiety.Uh and I think there is risk her ...

The unbearable slightness of aggregate economic data. https://t.co/DFUADyjl6E ...

Let's turn to Truit's Keith Learner. Talk about this market, Keith, as we are right at those all-time high levels intraday that we got uh in July. Um your your take is to keep keep playing with what's working, right.That's right, Carl. I think this market deserves the benefit of the doubt. And what got you here is still the growth sectors.It's the technology, is communication services. You also have industrials at all-time highs today. And um you know, the banks continue to act well as well.So you put that ...

Bond Market & Yields - The 10-year yield remains stagnant at 446%, mirroring levels from November, indicating a lack of movement in borrowing costs [1] - Despite positive economic data, bond yields experienced an initial rise followed by a slight decrease, influenced by technical factors [4] - Key psychological levels for yields are identified: just under 2% for 2-year, 450% for 10-year, and 500% for 30-year maturities [5] Economic Data & Fed Policy - Retail sales show a healthy rebound, and initial jobless claims hit a three-month low at 221000 [2][3] - Market expectations for Fed funds imply less easing, shifting from over two quarter-point cuts to 170% [3] - Strong economic data initially pushed yields higher, aligning with typical market behavior [4] Dollar Index - The dollar index is nearing a one-month high, approaching the significant psychological level of 100 [7] - Increased interest rates and a decent labor market contribute to the strengthening of the dollar index [6]