SCARLET: FROM NEW YORK CITY FOR OUR VIEWERS WORLDWIDE, BLOOMBERG : REAL YIELD STARTS RIGHT NOW. COMING UP, U.S. GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN PUTS ECONOMIC DATA ON HOLD. FURTHER CLOUDING THE FED'S PATH FORWARD AMID THE SHIFTING ECONOMY.NEVERTHELESS SEPTEMBER CREDIT ISSUANCE URGES TO NEW HIGHS. WE BEGIN WITH THE BIG ISSUE AND THAT IS A FED FLYING BLIND GEND. >> IS A STRANGE NO JOBS REPORT FRIDAY.>> OUR DATA IS BEING SUBSTANTIALLY DISTORTED. >> WE ARE IN A HOLDING PATTERN LOOKING FOR THE DATA. >> IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOO ...

Looks like we have breaking economic data. Thank goodness we still have Michael McKee with us here on set. We're getting what is some services because we got the manufacturing yesterday and it looks like we're missing the mark in terms of the headline number. Mike Yeah, the headline number comes in at 50, which is right on the line between contraction and expansion, and it is lower than what was anticipated.We were looking for a 51.7% and so we dropped from 52 to 50. Even prices paid goes up a little bit. I ...

Market Trends - European stocks are experiencing a record-breaking rally [1] - Investors are increasing bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts [1] - The increased bets are a response to downbeat economic data [1]

Payrolls at US companies unexpectedly dropped in September, according to ADP Research data released Wednesday: Here’s your Evening Briefing https://t.co/LirPDZibX9 ...

Labor Market & Economic Data - ADP data indicates a weakening labor market, with jobs shrinking [2] - Small and medium-sized businesses are disproportionately affected by the slowdown in jobs data [3] - The market is increasingly relying on ADP data due to concerns about government economic data delays and revisions [1][5][9][10][11] - The Fed is also reportedly using private data to estimate non-farm payroll numbers [13][14] Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - Investors are pricing in a 99% probability of a Fed rate cut in October, driven by the ADP report [2] - The market anticipates multiple rate cuts to prevent a rapid increase in the unemployment rate [8][17] - Yields are declining in response to the ADP report and expectations of Fed rate cuts [2][7][17] Market Outlook & Investment Strategy - Wall Street remains generally bullish on the stock market despite the labor market slowdown [4] - Goldman Sachs views a slowdown in the labor market as the biggest risk to the economy [4] - Uncertainty, such as tariff uncertainty, is putting downward pressure on yields [16]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to react to economic conditions, particularly if a prolonged government shutdown occurs, with a focus on the long end of the yield curve [1][2]. Economic Conditions - Concerns about the deficit and the "sell America" trade have made the long end of the curve appear cheap, but a prolonged shutdown could weaken economic data, potentially leading to a more aggressive Fed response [2][6]. - If economic data worsens, particularly if unemployment rises above 4.5%, the Fed may cut rates more rapidly, impacting both the front and long ends of the yield curve [2][3]. Bond Market Dynamics - Demand for Treasury auctions remains strong despite political volatility, with primary dealer participation and end-user demand being closely monitored [4][5]. - Structural positives in the U.S. economy, such as strong corporate fundamentals and careful refinancing, support bond demand, even amid cyclical slowdowns [6][13]. Investment Strategy - The 5 to 10 year part of the yield curve is identified as the "sweet spot" for bond investors, offering attractive yields of 5-6% without excessive duration risk [14][15]. - Investors are encouraged to consider high-quality bonds as a hedge against risk assets, despite some diversifying into gold and cryptocurrencies [11][12]. Market Sentiment - There has been significant inflow into bonds, although the attractiveness of money market funds yielding around 4% may temper urgency for further investment [8][9]. - The absence of debt ceiling concerns is viewed positively, allowing for a focus on potential economic impacts from a government shutdown [13].

Bond Market Reaction & Fed Policy - The long end of the curve is considered cheap based on valuation metrics, but the front end could also move if economic data weakens due to a prolonged shutdown [2] - The market is pricing in gradual Fed cuts to neutral, but a worsening economy (unemployment rate above 45%) could lead to more aggressive Fed action [2] - An independent Fed is responding to data and aiming to reduce the level of restrictiveness, making bonds attractive [6] - The Fed is expected to cut rates to 3%, which is close to neutral, even without a significant slowdown [8] Auction & Demand - End-user demand for Treasury auctions remains strong, indicating structural positives in the US economy [5] - Structural positives in the US economy, such as AI capex and strong corporate fundamentals, are driving demand for US bonds [6] - People look at 55%-6% in high-quality bonds and they like it [6] Investment Strategy & Risk Hedge - The 5 to 10-year part of the curve is considered a sweet spot, offering a balance between yield and duration risk [3][14][15] - Bonds are still considered a hedge, especially with the Fed likely to cut rates more aggressively [12][13] - Investors may diversify into other assets like gold and cryptocurrency, but US Treasuries remain a safe haven [9][10][11][12] - High-yield market can offer yields higher than 5%-6% without taking on that much duration risk [15]

The closure may delay key economic data ...

Group 1 - The article provides a calendar of key economic data releases, highlighting important dates for the U.S. and China [1][4][5] - Key economic indicators include U.S. Manufacturing PMI, Non-Farm Employment, Unemployment Rate, and China's various economic metrics such as M2, social financing, CPI, PPI, and retail sales [4][5] - Specific dates for data releases are outlined, including significant events like the Mid-Autumn Festival and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting [1][4]

The USA is ghetto and is run by a bunch of public servants of mental diminished capacity that put themselves above their oath.*I still love America*Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru):JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Beauru of Labor Statistics says it will not release economic data including the jobs report on Friday, if US government shuts down. ...