Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and return [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, looking for those that have undergone recent sell-offs, especially when insiders are purchasing shares at lower prices [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who buy shares post-sell-off, adding a layer of due diligence to the investment process [1] Technical Analysis - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts, employing multicolor lines for clarity [1] - Trend lines are occasionally drawn in multicolor patterns to assist in visualizing price movements [1]

Group 1 - The investment approach focuses on long-term investments while incorporating short-term shorts to uncover alpha opportunities [1] - The analysis is based on bottom-up evaluation, emphasizing the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of individual companies [1] - The goal is to identify companies with solid fundamentals, sustainable competitive advantages, and growth potential [1]

Core Insights - Gold prices reached a record high of $3,824.60, while silver prices hit a 14-year high of $44.77, indicating a strong bullish trend in both markets [1][5] - The current market behavior suggests that while there may be further upside potential for gold and silver, the bull markets could be nearing their peak [5][6] Price Trends - The recent price movements in gold and silver have shown bullish technical breakouts from previous trading ranges, although some profit-taking has been observed [1] - Price corrections are a natural part of market trends, which can help sustain the overall bullish momentum [2] Market Dynamics - The acceleration in the bull markets for gold and silver may indicate that major market tops could occur sooner than expected [5] - There is potential for gold prices to reach $4,000 per ounce, but the timeline for this remains uncertain [6] Technical and Fundamental Indicators - Key indicators suggesting potential exhaustion in the gold and silver markets include: 1. Two consecutive large down days could indicate that bulls are exhausted [7] 2. A bearish weekly low close could signal that the bullish momentum has waned [7] 3. Divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may indicate weakening momentum [7] 4. Rising open interest in futures during price rallies is a bullish sign [7] 5. A lack of price increase following bullish news could suggest exhaustion among bulls [7] 6. Tighter monetary policies from global central banks could dampen demand for metals [7] 7. Declining crude oil prices could negatively impact gold and silver prices [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the valuation of U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) in the context of its performance since the failure of SVB, questioning whether it remains undervalued [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - U.S. Bancorp's buy rating has performed well since the last analysis over two years ago, indicating positive market sentiment [1]. Group 2: Analyst Background - The author has a background in Business Administration and has completed CFA level 1, indicating a solid foundation in financial analysis [1]. - The author emphasizes a preference for fundamental analysis over technical analysis, focusing on actual company performance rather than stock price movements [1]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The author typically invests in stocks and ETFs with a long-term view, often taking a contrarian approach, which may influence the analysis of U.S. Bancorp [1].

Group 1 - The article discusses the author's journey into investing, starting in high school in 2011, focusing on REITs, preferred stocks, and high-yield bonds, indicating a long-standing interest in markets and the economy [1] - The author has recently adopted a strategy that combines long stock positions with covered calls and cash secured puts, emphasizing a fundamental long-term investment approach [1] - The author primarily covers REITs and financials on Seeking Alpha, with occasional articles on ETFs and other stocks influenced by macro trade ideas [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes a long-term investment philosophy focused on fundamental analysis, targeting companies with strong competitive advantages and consistent free cash flow growth [1]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment approach is centered on identifying undervalued stocks with growth potential and avoiding overvalued stocks [1]. - The analyst believes in the power of long-term investing over short-term trading tactics, which has proven effective in navigating market complexities [1]. Group 2: Professional Background - The analyst has a background in business and economics, providing a solid foundation for investment analysis [1]. - Currently, the analyst is associated with a local brokerage firm and contributes to Seeking Alpha, aiming to share deep analytical insights with the investment community [1].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies focused on high-quality businesses with strong competitive advantages [1] - The author aims to share in-depth analysis and actionable insights derived from personal investment decisions [1] - The goal is to foster a community of investors for discussion and strategy sharing [1] Group 2 - The author has a beneficial long position in NSRGY shares, indicating a personal investment interest [1] - The article does not provide specific financial advice or recommendations for buying, selling, or holding investments [2] - The content is presented by third-party authors, which may include both professional and individual investors [3]

Trend Identification and Momentum - The 200-day moving average is a key indicator for identifying momentum in crypto markets, with price above indicating bullish control and price below indicating bearish control [4] - A potential buying opportunity arises when a crypto asset, after being below the 200-day moving average for weeks or months, closes a full day above it, especially when accompanied by a fundamental catalyst like a product launch or user growth [5][7] - Stablecoin supply growth is a powerful indicator; expanding supply during a 200-day reclaim increases confidence in the move's sustainability [8] - It's crucial to ignore the 200-day moving average when fundamentals, such as significant supply unlocks or team departures, contradict the technical signals [9] Identifying Market Tops and Bottoms - The PI cycle top, a combination of the 111-day and 350-day moving averages on BTC, serves as an alarm for potential market tops when the fast line crosses above the slow line [17] - The MVRV z-score (zed score) uses on-chain data to determine if BTC is over or underpriced compared to the average cost basis of holders; a high score indicates unrealized profit and potential tops, while a low score suggests market bottoms [20][21] - The zed score's behavior may differ from previous cycles due to the influence of large buyers like ETFs and digital asset treasuries, which are re-anchoring supply at higher prices [24] - The zed score is expected to be more reliable as a bottom signal due to the potential for long liquidity wipeouts and liquidations of smaller crypto treasuries during a harsh bear market [27][29] Trading Sideways Markets - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is useful in sideways markets; look for bounces when price is near support and RSI is low (30-40 or lower), and exits when price is near resistance and RSI is high (60-70 or higher) [42] - Bollinger Bands, which expand with rising volatility and tighten when the market is calm, can be combined with RSI for trading sideways markets; sell when RSI is over 70 and price tags the upper band, and vice versa [44] Market Fundamentals - Ethereum funds saw inflows of nearly $4 billion, indicating a clear allocation preference from large buyers [34] - The total stablecoin market cap is above $280 billion, providing fresh capital for price action [34] - September will see $45 billion unlocked across the altcoin spectrum, so it's better to focus on tokens that don't have heavy unlock schedules in their immediate future [35]

Core Viewpoint - The Straits Times Index has reached new heights, with Singapore blue-chip stocks experiencing significant gains, raising questions about the sustainability of this rally and potential corrections in the market [1][12]. Group 1: CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) - CICT is one of Singapore's largest REITs, owning prime office and retail properties, and has shown resilience with a solid occupancy rate of 96.3% as of June 2025 [3][4]. - Retail rents increased by 7.7% and office rents by 4.8%, indicating strong demand for its properties [4]. - The gearing ratio stands at 37.9%, which is manageable, and the interest cover is at 3.1 times, providing room to manage borrowing costs [4]. - CICT's price-to-book ratio is just under 1.1, suggesting it is trading close to its underlying asset value, which may cushion against potential downturns [5]. Group 2: Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) - FCT owns suburban malls that serve as community hubs, achieving a retail occupancy rate of 99.5% as of June 2025, indicating near-full occupancy [6][7]. - Shopper traffic increased by 1% year on year, and tenant sales rose by 3.3%, demonstrating the malls' importance to the community [7]. - FCT's cost of debt has decreased below 4%, providing financial relief, and its gearing is at 38.6%, still below the 50% cap [8]. - The upcoming asset enhancement at Hougang Mall, which is 64% pre-leased, is expected to drive future growth [8]. Group 3: SATS Ltd - SATS has evolved into a global aviation and food solutions provider following its acquisition of Worldwide Flight Services (WFS), with first-quarter revenue for fiscal 2026 rising nearly 10% year on year to S$1.5 billion [9][10]. - Operating margins improved to 8.3%, and revenue from Gateway Services increased by 11.2% year on year [10]. - The integration of WFS is ahead of schedule, and new contracts with major airlines highlight SATS's expanding global presence [10]. - The gross debt-to-equity ratio has eased to 1.5 times, and the fiscal 2025 dividend of S$0.05 reflects management's confidence in cash flow [11]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - The current market rally does not imply that all stocks are overpriced; strong businesses with solid fundamentals can still present investment opportunities [12][13]. - CICT offers exposure to prime commercial real estate with a 5% yield, FCT provides defensive suburban retail exposure, and SATS represents a transformation play with expanding operations [12]. - Investors are advised to focus on quality businesses at reasonable valuations rather than chasing market momentum [13].

Group 1 - The investor has a contrarian investment style, focusing on high-risk, illiquid options and shares, with a portfolio split of approximately 50%-50% [1] - The investment strategy involves buying stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, especially when insiders are purchasing shares at lower prices [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, their leverage, and to compare financial ratios with sector and industry averages [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, primarily using multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] - The investor conducts professional background checks on insiders who purchase shares after sell-offs to ensure credibility [1] - The investment timeframe typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, indicating a medium-term investment horizon [1]