US consumer inflation expectations rose in July and perceptions of the job market improved, according to a monthly Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey https://t.co/CQixboahOV ...

Summary of Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and Labor Market Insights Industry Overview - The report focuses on the U.S. economy, specifically consumer confidence and labor market conditions as indicated by the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index [1][4]. Key Points 1. **Consumer Confidence Index**: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 97.2 in July from an upwardly revised 95.2, driven by an increase in the expectations sub-index, which went up to 74.4 from 69.9 [3][4]. 2. **Consumer Sentiment Improvement**: Consumer sentiment has shown improvement from recent lows, with inflation expectations decreasing, which has positively influenced business and income expectations for the next six months [4][5]. 3. **Cautious Consumer Behavior**: Despite the improvement, confidence indices remain below the levels at the beginning of the year and pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that consumers may continue to be cautious in their spending decisions [4][5]. 4. **Labor Market Differential**: The labor market differential, which measures the difference between respondents saying jobs are hard to get versus those saying jobs are plentiful, has been on a downward trend, indicating a loosening labor market. A larger share of respondents reported that jobs are hard to get in July, supporting forecasts for an increase in the unemployment rate [5][6]. 5. **Spending Growth**: Hard spending data indicates that consumer spending growth is slowing compared to last year, and this trend may continue [4][5]. Additional Insights - **Inflation Expectations**: The decline in inflation expectations has been a significant factor in improving business and income outlooks, although the overall consumer confidence remains cautious [4][5]. - **Unemployment Rate Forecast**: The report supports a forecast for an increasing unemployment rate due to the rising number of respondents indicating difficulty in finding jobs [5][6]. This summary encapsulates the essential findings and insights from the Conference Board report, highlighting the current state of consumer confidence and labor market conditions in the U.S. economy.

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Consumer Sentiment - University of Michigan consumer sentiment index reached 61.8 in July, a five-month high [1] - The index is still 16% below December 2024 levels [1] Inflation Expectations - Year-ahead inflation expectations decreased sharply from 5% to 4.4%, the lowest in 2025 [1] - Long-run inflation expectations declined to 3.6% [1]

Market Trends - Declining inflation expectations are positioning South African government bonds for further gains [1] - The rally has already driven benchmark yields to five-year lows [1]

Inflation Expectations - South African inflation expectations have fallen to an almost four-year low [1] Monetary Policy - This provides policymakers with another reason to press ahead with their easing cycle [1]

Inflation & Monetary Policy - Central banks have done a good job taming the great inflation of 2022 [1] - The primary concern should be the inflation trajectory, as it dictates the direction of interest rates [3][4] - Current policy is broadly in line with a neutral stance, with analysts suggesting a 7% nominal rate indicates neutral territory [14][15] - Uncertainty about the inflation trajectory persists due to past volatility [15] Inflation Target & Policy Revision - There's an opportunity for "opportunistic disinflation," using a low inflation environment to anchor inflation expectations [5][11] - The current inflation target range is considered too wide and high compared to peers, necessitating a revision [10] - The South African Reserve Bank is undergoing a review, with recommendations to lower the inflation target to 2-3% [6][8] - Lowering the inflation target could lead to lower nominal interest rates [14] Risks & Communication - Geopolitical shocks and policy decisions (tariffs) can impact the economic outlook [2] - Scenarios are useful for policymakers to communicate potential risks and future trajectories, but require careful communication to avoid public misinterpretation [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on consumer confidence, with the consumer confidence index rising significantly above expectations [2]. Core Insights - The Conference Board index of consumer confidence increased by 12.3 points to 98.0 in May, surpassing consensus expectations, with a prior revised level of 85.7 [2]. - The expectations component of the index rose by 17.4 points to 72.8, recovering from its lowest level since October 2011 [2]. - The present situation component also saw an increase of 4.8 points to 135.9 [2]. - The labor differential decreased slightly to 13.2, with 31.8% of respondents indicating jobs are plentiful and 18.6% stating jobs are hard to get [2]. - The survey's measure of 12-month ahead inflation expectations decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 6.5% [2]. - The rebound in consumer confidence was noted to have gained momentum following the announcement of a 90-day pause in US-China retaliatory tariffs [2]. Summary by Sections Consumer Confidence Index - The consumer confidence index rose to 98.0 in May, a significant increase from the revised April level of 85.7 [2]. - The expectations component increased to 72.8, while the present situation component rose to 135.9 [2]. Labor Market Insights - The labor differential decreased to 13.2, with a slight increase in the percentage of respondents indicating jobs are plentiful [2]. Inflation Expectations - The 12-month ahead inflation expectations decreased to 6.5%, indicating a decline in inflation concerns among consumers [2].

Market Overview - International gold prices surged significantly on May 20, opening at $3,231.61 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,285.73, a low of $3,204.61, and closing at $3,277.22 [1] Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve's Harker stated that inflation expectations remain stable, and any changes could signal the need for action. The Fed is prepared to remain patient and needs more time to understand how trade policies affect business decisions [2] - Fed's Bostic does not expect a recession but is uncertain when households and businesses will feel secure enough to make long-term spending decisions. Current tariff levels are high, complicating the economic outlook [2] - Fed's Musalem emphasized that if inflation expectations become unstable, prioritizing price stability is crucial. The current monetary policy remains appropriate if trade tensions ease and the labor market remains resilient [3] Geopolitical Situation - Reports indicate that Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, which could escalate regional tensions and conflict. U.S. officials are divided on the likelihood of such an action [5] - Iran's leadership has expressed skepticism about reaching a conclusion in negotiations with the U.S. regarding its nuclear program, asserting its right to uranium enrichment under the Non-Proliferation Treaty [5] Investment Insights - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 0.57 tons, bringing the total to 921.6 tons [6] - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June is 94.7%, with a 5.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut. For July, the probability of maintaining rates is 70.3% [6] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, breaking key resistance levels and indicating a potential for continued bullish momentum. Short-term adjustments may be necessary due to overbought conditions [6] - The market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with a focus on maintaining a bullish trading strategy [8]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or companies discussed Core Insights - The University of Michigan Sentiment index fell to 50.8 from 52.2, indicating a weaker consumer sentiment than expected [1][3][4] - Inflation expectations have risen, with 1-year expectations increasing to 7.3% from 6.5% and 5-10 year expectations rising to 4.6% from 4.4% [3][5] - The decline in consumer sentiment may not yet fully reflect recent tariff pullbacks, suggesting potential for improvement in future releases [4][5] Summary by Sections Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan Sentiment index has decreased for five consecutive months, indicating persistent weakness in consumer sentiment [4] - The current conditions and expectations indices both fell, contributing to the overall decline in sentiment [3] Inflation Expectations - 1-year inflation expectations are at their highest level since 1981, reflecting significant concerns about rising prices [5] - There is a notable divergence in inflation expectations based on political party affiliation, which may influence consumer behavior [5] - Recent tariff pullbacks are likely not fully accounted for in inflation expectations, indicating potential volatility in future readings [5] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that while consumer sentiment is weak, it remains uncertain whether this will lead to a reduction in consumer spending in the coming months [4]