Market Trends - Bitcoin price recovered after Wednesday's turbulence following the Fed's interest rate cuts [1] - Santiment characterized Bitcoin's volatility as a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event [1]

Core Insights - The housing sector is facing ongoing challenges, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicating that interest rate cuts are unlikely to significantly improve inventory and affordability issues [1][2][5] - Powell emphasized that the primary issues affecting the housing market are low supply and high mortgage rates, which are not directly influenced by the Fed's monetary policy [5][9][13] Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve has cut the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, but Powell expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of these cuts in addressing housing market weaknesses [1][3][9] - The Fed's "dot plot" projections suggest only one additional rate cut in 2026, indicating a cautious approach moving forward [10] Housing Supply and Demand - Powell noted a long-standing shortage of housing supply in the U.S., stating that more diverse housing options are needed to meet demand [6][9] - Many homeowners are reluctant to sell due to having low-rate mortgages from the pandemic, which contributes to the ongoing supply constraints [5][13] Market Dynamics - The housing market has seen a significant increase in delistings, with a 38% rise in October compared to the previous year and a 45% increase in delistings for 2025 to date compared to 2024 [14][15] - Approximately 6% of listings have been removed from the market each month since June, marking 2025 as the year with the highest delisting rate since tracking began in 2022 [16]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar is under pressure, leading to gains in the euro and pound, as the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell were perceived as less hawkish than expected, reinforcing dollar selling momentum [1][6]. Group 1: Currency Movements - The euro was steady at $1.1741 after a 0.37% rise, while the pound was firmer at $1.33955, both poised for their third consecutive week of gains [1]. - The dollar index, measuring the U.S. currency against six major rivals, was at 98.34, set for a weekly drop of 0.7% and down over 9% this year, on track for its steepest annual drop since 2017 [6]. - The Japanese yen is expected to gain slightly, trading at 155.61 per dollar, while the Australian dollar remained steady at $0.6667 and the New Zealand dollar was 0.14% firmer at $0.5815 [7][9]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve cut rates as expected, but the comments from Powell were seen as less hawkish, which may help avoid negative surprises for investors [2][6]. - There is uncertainty regarding the U.S. monetary policy path next year, with traders pricing in two rate cuts in 2026, while policymakers anticipate only one cut next year and one in 2027 [6]. - Economic data lagging from the recent federal government shutdown will influence future monetary policy decisions, with the upcoming midterm elections likely focusing on economic performance [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Swiss National Bank maintained its policy rate at 0% and noted that a recent agreement to reduce U.S. tariffs on Swiss goods has improved the economic outlook, despite inflation being below expectations [8][9]. - Concerns regarding the U.S. labor market are expected to drive the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to consider further interest rate cuts next year [6].

FUNDAMENTALS * U.S. * The U.S. dollar plummeted to an eight-week low in the previous session, making greenback-priced gold more affordable for overseas buyers. Live Events* The number of Americans filing new applications for * A majority of U.S. central bankers expect they will need to cut short-term * Fed Chair Jerome Powell also declined to offer any guidance on whether another cut is likely in the near term. * Non-yielding assets such as gold tend to perform well in low-interest-rate environments. * Inve ...

Market Breadth and Participation - Market breadth is improving, indicating more stocks are participating while major indices remain stable, suggesting the correction experienced in November has concluded [1] - The number of S&P 500 stocks reaching 1-month highs is increasing, which is a bullish signal [1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a quarter point, which is historically bullish for equities when occurring within 2% of an all-time high in the S&P 500 [2] - Interest rate cuts near market highs have historically led to positive annual gains for the S&P 500 [2] Market Sentiment - Despite major equity indices being at or near all-time highs, market sentiment remains muted, as indicated by the CNN Fear & Greed Indicator showing a "neutral" reading, which is a bullish contrarian sign [3] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - Hecla Mining (HL) gained 13% in the precious metals sector - Dollar General (DG) increased by 5% in discount retail - Ciena (CIEN) rose by 8.5% and is up 189% year-to-date in fiber optics - Bloom Energy (BE) is up more than 7% in data center energy - Tech Solutions (FIGR) is up more than 6% following its recent IPO in the financial sector [7][8] Overall Market Outlook - The combination of improving market breadth, supportive interest rates, and cautious sentiment creates a bullish backdrop for U.S. equities, strengthening the foundation for further market gains [9]

Core Viewpoint - Tension exists between the Federal Reserve's goals of controlling inflation and supporting the job market, leading to a cautious approach in interest rate decisions as inflation remains high and the job market shows signs of weakness [1] Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% as expected, but there were dissenting opinions within the committee, indicating differing views on the necessity of further cuts [2][4] - The Fed has cumulatively cut rates by 1.75 percentage points since September 2024, with current rates in the target range of 3.25% to 3.5%, still above pre-pandemic levels [5][19] - The Fed is expected to pause further cuts in January, with forecasts suggesting only one additional cut next year, contrasting with some analysts predicting two cuts [6][7] Economic Indicators - The natural rate of interest is believed to be closer to pre-pandemic levels, influenced by demographic trends and economic growth rates [9][20] - The housing market continues to weaken despite rate cuts, indicating potential need for further cuts to support this sector [10] - The lack of recent GDP data creates uncertainty in assessing the overall economic picture, with expectations for updates once Q3 data is available [11][12] Inflation and Tariff Policies - Factors that could lead to more aggressive rate cuts include a significant downturn in the AI sector, which has been a major contributor to GDP growth [12] - Tariff policies present a risk for inflation; if businesses pass on tariff costs to consumers, it could increase inflationary pressures, complicating the Fed's monetary policy [13][14] Neutral Interest Rate - The neutral interest rate is crucial for balancing full employment and inflation at the Fed's 2% target, with current rates slightly above the estimated neutral level of around 3% [15][19] - The neutral rate has trended down over decades, influenced by demographic changes and economic growth, suggesting that the Fed's long-term rate setting will align with this metric [21][22]

two of what I counted to be five you guys five times he said we're well positioned to wait let's bring in our floor show people joining me now JP Morgan Asset Management global market strategist Mera Pandit and Slate Stone wealth chief market strategist Kenny Pulcari Meera let's get to you first this is a significant meeting and the markets are reflecting that what do you think the markets heard that have them jumping so exponentially the markets heard a Fed free from fear all fall we have been debating are ...

Core Viewpoint - Markets are anticipating over two interest rate cuts in 2026, driven by expectations that labor market softness will outweigh persistent inflation pressures [1] Group 1 - The current market sentiment reflects a belief in a weakening labor market, which is influencing expectations for future monetary policy [1] - Investors are pricing in these cuts as a response to the balance between labor market conditions and inflation [1]

Core Insights - The US Federal Reserve has indicated a pause in interest rate cuts, with only one rate cut expected in 2026, amidst pressures from high inflation and a weak job market [1][3][6] - The Fed's key interest rate has been reduced to approximately 3.6%, a near three-year low, despite dissenting votes advocating for no changes [2][6] - Economic growth in the US is anticipated to improve, with a projected jobless rate decline and inflation expected to decrease to 2.4% by the end of next year [3][4] Federal Reserve's Position - The Fed is cautious about future rate cuts due to the potential impact of trade tariffs on inflation and the overall economy [4][6] - Fed Chair Jay Powell noted that the current policy rate is within a neutral range, allowing the Fed to monitor economic developments before making further changes [6][12] Political Influence and Market Reactions - There is concern regarding the potential political influence on the Fed, especially with President Trump's efforts to appoint supporters of rapid interest rate reductions [7][9] - The upcoming succession of Fed Chair Powell has led to market uncertainty, with fears that a new chair could undermine the Fed's current guidance [9][12] - Market reactions have shown little movement in the dollar and US bond yields following the Fed's decisions, indicating a cautious outlook among investors [10][13]

Core Insights - The Dow Jones Index has experienced significant growth, trading at $47,560, which is a 30% increase from its lowest point of $28,662 in April 2022 [1][2] Performance Overview - The Dow Jones Index, along with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, has benefited from Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, strong earnings growth, and the artificial intelligence boom [2] - Most companies in the Dow Jones Index and its top ETF, the DIA, have shown substantial gains this year, with only 7 companies, including UnitedHealth, Salesforce, Nike, and Procter & Gamble, experiencing declines [3] Top Gainers - Caterpillar (CAT) has emerged as the best-performing company in the Dow Jones Index, with a stock price increase of 62%, resulting in a market capitalization exceeding $278 billion [4] - Goldman Sachs Group (GS) is the second-best performer, with a stock rise of 51% and a market capitalization of $262 billion, benefiting from a trading boom and increased corporate activities [6] - IBM has seen a 40% increase in stock price, bolstered by its acquisition of Confluent and a 9% revenue growth to $16.3 billion, with its AI business reaching $9.5 billion [8][9] - Other notable gainers include Nvidia, Cisco Systems, 3M, JPMorgan, and American Express, all of which have increased by over 21% this year [10] Financial Performance - Caterpillar's revenue rose from $16.1 billion to a record $17.6 billion, although its operating profit slightly declined to $3.1 billion, with adjusted profit per share decreasing from $5.17 to $4.95 [5] - Goldman Sachs reported a revenue increase to $15.18 billion and net earnings of $4.1 billion, driven by strong performance in Global Banking & Markets and asset & wealth management [7]