Good morning to you. Live in London, let us call someone forward to get us CPI data we've already established we can't take a lunch break here in Europe today because we have the ECB and US CPI and US CPI. I mean, we were talking about the short end of the bond market, treasuries.That could be the asset to watch here. What are you watching for. Yeah, So I think, you know, the the idea that the Fed is going to cut interest rates this month is pretty much nailed on at this point.I don't think anybody's expect ...

Core Insights - Wholesale prices unexpectedly declined by 0.1% in August, contrary to Wall Street's expectation of a 0.4% increase, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics [1][2] - This decline marks the first decrease in wholesale prices since a 0.3% drop in April, indicating potential shifts in market dynamics [2] - The headline Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 2.6%, significantly below the estimated 3.3% rise and July's 3.1%, while core PPI also fell unexpectedly by 0.1% [2] Price Movements - The decrease in wholesale prices was influenced by a 2.3% increase in tobacco product prices, alongside a 2% rise in portfolio management costs and a notable 6.9% increase in coffee prices [3] Economic Context - Upcoming consumer price index data is anticipated to show inflation rising to 2.9% in August from 2.7% in July, which will be critical for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4] - The Federal Reserve is currently considering a potential interest rate cut, with Wall Street assigning a 100% probability to this outcome [4] Market Reactions - President Trump praised the wholesale prices report, interpreting it as a sign of no inflation and urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [5] Labor Market Insights - Recent unemployment data indicated a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% in August, which was above expectations, highlighting a deteriorating labor market [6] - The jobs report revealed that the U.S. had more unemployed individuals (7.2 million) than job openings (7.18 million) for the first time since April 2021, suggesting increased labor market uncertainty [6]

PPI was a big story, but we're getting some inventories. Let's get back to Rick Santelli. Hey, Rick.Yes, indeed. That PPI was a big story. All right, Carl.The monthly numbers turning negative first time since April. Wholesale inventories and trade sales. These are coming out July final.On inventories, it moves from 210 to up 110 from the midmon read. But on trade sales, this is a fresh July number, Carl, and it is a biggie. We're expecting up two ten up 1.4%.That is the best since February when it was uh 2% ...

ToplineWholesale prices declined unexpectedly in August after Wall Street anticipated an increase, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, whose report on consumer prices comes later this week as the Federal Reserve debates interest rates. A report on wholesale prices precedes consumer price data due later this week, as the Federal Reserve debates interest rates.AFP via Getty Images ...

Core Insights - Treasuries rose, particularly short-dated notes, following a weaker-than-expected wholesale inflation reading, which solidified expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week [1][3] - The yield on two-year notes fell to 3.52%, while the benchmark 10-year notes decreased to 4.06% [2] Inflation Data - The producer price index for August decreased by 0.1% month-over-month, marking the first decline in four months [3] - Core consumer prices are expected to rise at an annualized rate of 3.1%, significantly above the Fed's 2% inflation target [5] Market Expectations - Traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point reduction at the upcoming Fed meeting, with additional cuts anticipated in October and December [4] - Market sentiment indicates a strong belief that the Fed will respond to labor market weaknesses by easing monetary policy [7]

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold futures opened at $3,672.80 per ounce on Friday, reflecting a 1% increase from Thursday's close of $3,636.90, and reached a high of $3,695.50 that morning [1][2] - The current price of gold has increased by 2.9% from the opening price of $3,567.80 one week ago and has risen 9.4% over the past month from $3,356.20 on August 12, 2025 [3] - Year-over-year, gold prices have surged by 45.2% from the opening price of $2,529.10 on September 12, 2024 [3] Group 2: Market Influences - Gold prices did not react significantly to a higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index report for August, which showed a 0.4% increase after a 0.2% rise in July [2] - Despite inflation concerns, investors anticipate the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next week due to a weakening employment situation in the U.S., which could further drive gold prices higher [2] - Lower interest rates enhance gold's attractiveness compared to cash and fixed income, while its status as a safe-haven asset increases demand during price rises [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Costco has begun selling gold bars, silver coins, and platinum bars, providing a convenient option for investors looking to diversify their wealth [5][6] - The club store first introduced gold bars in 2023, followed by silver and platinum, with all three precious metals showing substantial price increases in 2025 [6] - Analysts remain bullish on gold, with Goldman Sachs predicting a price of $3,700 per troy ounce by year-end 2025, representing a 40% increase from the January 2 opening price of $2,633 [10]

We start with the continuing battle over the Federal Reserve, as President Trump insists that Governor Lisa Cook must go and Ms. . Cook refuses to leave, even as the president's nominee to replace another governor heads toward Senate confirmation. Our special contributor Larry Summers has consistently expressed his concerns about Fed independence, but so far, the markets have been calm.So, Larry, continued focus on the Federal Reserve as the proceedings with respect to Governor Cook-- Lisa Cook--as Presiden ...

Tonight, President Trump is dismissing the latest disappointing jobs numbers. They'll say, "You're losing jobs." And then they say, "By the way, we have a correction a month later." It follows a weaker than expected jobs report. Employers only adding 22,000 new hires in August.And revised numbers show 13,000 jobs lost in June. The first time that's happened since the pandemic. Unemployment ticking up slightly to 4.3%.The White House acknowledges it's a setback. Inflation is low and economic growth is solid. ...

Economic Cycles - The economy functions like a machine, driven by short-term and long-term debt cycles [4] - Short-term debt cycles, typically lasting 5 to 8 years, are primarily controlled by the central bank through interest rate adjustments [5] - These cycles involve expansion fueled by credit, leading to inflation, followed by contraction (recession) when the central bank raises interest rates [1][2][3] - Long-term debt cycles occur because debts rise faster than incomes over decades, leading to a debt burden [6] - The ratio of debt to income is called the debt burden, which remains manageable as long as incomes rise [7] Debt and Credit - Spending increases are fueled by credit, which can be created instantly [1] - When credit is easily available, there's an economic expansion; when it's not, there's a recession [4] - Rising incomes and asset values help borrowers remain creditworthy for a long time, even with accumulating debt [8] - At some point, debt repayments grow faster than incomes, forcing people to cut back on spending, leading to a reversal of the cycle [9] - Debt burdens become too big, leading to deleveraging, as seen in 2008 in the United States and Europe [10][11] Inflation and Deflation - Inflation occurs when spending and incomes grow faster than the production of goods, causing prices to rise [1] - The central bank raises interest rates to combat inflation [2] - Deflation occurs when people spend less, causing prices to go down, leading to a recession [3] Human Behavior - People have an inclination to borrow and spend more instead of paying back debt, pushing the economy [5] - Lenders freely extend credit because everyone thinks things are going great, focusing on rising incomes and asset values [6] - People borrow huge amounts of money to buy assets as investments, causing their prices to rise even higher, creating a boom and potentially a bubble [8][7]

So the history of tariffs, I mean, we've got precedent. You know, I don't know the answer to this. You look back at Smoot-Hawley and various tariffs over the last hundred years.Is there a trend line or. Okay. Yeah, there's a red line.Tariffs are terrible. As you joined the central bank. You're out of the fiscal policy business. Okay, You're out of the partisan business.People take the job extremely seriously. So I'm not going to with the president and Congress, in their wisdom, can pass whatever tariffs the ...