Following the government shutdown, the Federal Reserve will be flying more blind than usual without key data. This could lead to a mistake in setting interest rates, cutting too much if the job market strong, too little if it's weaker than thought. But there are clues to watch on the state of the economy.One of them is the ADP's private payroll report. It came in surprisingly weak. Last month, the private sector shed 32,000 jobs, marking the biggest decrease since 2023.JP Morgan Mike Feroli says the continu ...

Car shoppers are facing affordability challenges in the market for new vehicles despite average down payments dipping to nearly the lowest level in four years, according to a new report. An analysis by Edmunds found that the average down payment for new car purchases fell to $6,020 in the third quarter of 2025. That's the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2021 and is down from $6,433 in the second quarter of 2025 and $6,619 in the third quarter of 2024 – but the affordability of new vehicles remains ...

It's been a busy morning of private economic data. Getting some more. Let's get to Rick Santelli.Hey, Rick. >> Yes, Carl. These are ISM manufacturing PMI September final reads.And we see sub 50 on the headline. 49.1% largely expected. 49.1% would be the lightest going back to well uh going back to March, March of this year when it was 49.Even if we look at prices paid and of course we'd rather have this go down and reflect less inflationary pressures comes in it's 61.9% sequentially lower than 63.7% would b ...

Economic Data Summary - The ISM manufacturing PMI for September shows a headline reading of 49.1%, indicating contraction and the lowest level since March [1] - Prices paid index decreased to 61.9%, down from 63.7%, marking the second lightest number of the year [2] - New orders index fell to 48.9%, below expectations and lower than the previous month's 51.4%, the weakest since July [2] - Employment index recorded at 45.3%, better than the previous month's 43.8%, but still in contraction territory [3][4] - The employment index is the highest since May when it was 46.8% [4] - Interest rates are declining significantly due to weak ADP data, with expectations of a delayed jobs report [4]

Companies in the private sector lost 32,000 jobs in June, payroll processing firm ADP said Wednesday. The figure is below economists’ estimates of a gain of 50,000 jobs. The prior month's payrolls number was revised downward to a loss of 3,000 from an initially reported gain of 54,000."Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month's release further validates what we've been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring," said ADP chief economist ...

Reason #1: Inflation. In his book “Intermarket Technical Analysis”, author John J. Murphy opened Chapter 3 by saying, “Of all the intermarket relationships explained in this book, the link between commodity markets and the Treasury bond market is the most important.” The next section of the chapter has the sub-title, “The Key is Inflation”. As you have likely learned by now, I couldn’t care less about “official” government numbers regarding inflation (e.g. Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, etc.), ...

In the last month, the utilities sector became opportunistically cheap with strong growth and a significant price drop. We believe the Utilities Sector ETF (NYSEARCA:XLU) will substantially outperform the broader market while also providing defensive benefits in the event of a weakening economy. Last month pricing went the wrong way Utilities are generally considered an interest-rate-sensitive sector. Since they provide steady dividend income, they often compete with bonds for attention. As such, they tend ...

Small cap stocks—those from companies with market values between about $300 million and $2 billion—are famous for their ability to deliver big gains, but they often come with a wild ride. When times are uncertain, these stocks tend to lag behind the giants. Yet, given the right economic backdrop, they're known for staging impressive rallies and catching up in dramatic fashion. If you're an investor hoping to broaden your horizons or spot timely opportunities, understanding the forces behind these catch-up m ...

Group 1: Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence decreased in September, with the Conference Board's index at 94.2, down 3.6 points from August and below the Dow Jones estimate of 96.0, marking the lowest level since April [1] - The "present situation" index also hit its lowest in a year, indicating a less positive assessment of business conditions and a decline in job availability for the ninth consecutive month [2] Group 2: Labor Market Conditions - Job openings in August totaled 7.23 million, a slight increase of 19,000 from July but a decrease of 422,000, or 5.5%, compared to the same period last year [3] - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover report indicated a slower pace in hiring and total separations, with quits falling by 75,000, reflecting decreased worker confidence [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - Labor market stability is crucial for the Federal Reserve as it considers interest rate adjustments, with expectations of a half percentage point cut by year-end [5] - Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted risks of labor demand falling short of supply, potentially leading to a significant increase in the unemployment rate [6] Group 4: Labor Market Perceptions - There is a growing divide in labor market perceptions, with the percentage of respondents indicating jobs are "plentiful" dropping to 26.9%, a decline of over 3 percentage points from August, while the "hard to get" measure remained at 19.1% [7] - Respondents expressed increased pessimism about their financial situations, with the largest one-month drop since July 2022 [7]

Government Shutdown Implications - The likelihood of a government shutdown is rising significantly, with probabilities now in the very high numbers [1][4][8] - The last continuing resolution was passed on March 1st, and the current impasse is partly due to the political fallout from that event [2] - If the government shuts down, critical labor market data, including jobs data, may not be released, which could impact market sentiment [3][9] Market Reactions and Economic Impact - Despite the uncertainty, it is suggested that the market and investors should not be overly concerned about the shutdown's impact on the overall economy [3][4] - Historical context indicates that previous shutdowns, such as during the Trump administration, did not lead to catastrophic economic effects [4][6] - A shutdown lasting a few days may not be significant, but if it extends to weeks, it could have more serious implications [7] Labor Market and Economic Indicators - Upcoming labor market data, including the Jolts report, is critical, with expectations of around 7.1 million job openings [14] - Consumer confidence is anticipated to dip slightly from 97.4 to 96 due to the looming shutdown [14] - The Case-Shiller home price index showed a month-over-month decline of 0.1% and a year-over-year increase of 1.8%, indicating mixed signals in the housing market [10][11] Federal Reserve Commentary - Several Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled to discuss interest rates and the economy, which may provide insights into future monetary policy [15] - The upcoming October Fed meeting's occurrence during a potential government shutdown raises questions about its implications [15]