🇺🇸 UPDATE: Odds of a December rate cut are now at 88.4%, per CME data.3 days left until FOMC. https://t.co/8VZKACvFlK ...

December 5, 2025 07:00 AM GMT US Economics Weekly | North America It's beginning to look a lot like a rate cut We now expect a 25bp cut at the Dec Fed meeting, followed by two more 25bp cuts in Jan and Apr. The cut will likely be accompanied by messaging of a higher bar for cuts moving forward. Initial Black Friday reporting was better than feared, but we still expect slower real spending growth in 4Q. M Exhibit 1: We expect cuts in Dec, Jan, and Apr to a terminal target range of 3.0- 3.25% Key Takeaways | ...

Core Insights - The crypto market, particularly Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies, is experiencing significant turmoil due to macroeconomic fears and rising volatility, leading to sharp declines in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets [1][2][3] Market Performance - DAT stocks have seen a drastic decline, with companies that previously traded at multiples of their modified net asset value (mNAV) now trading at or below parity, raising concerns about forced selling to maintain solvency [2][3] - During the summer of 2025, many DATs traded at 3x, 5x, or even 10x their mNAV, but are now hovering around 1x or lower, indicating a severe market correction [3] Potential Outcomes - The market faces two potential paths: a disorderly unwind due to aggressive sell-offs triggered by declining prices, or a recovery if companies hold their balances, supported by an improving macro backdrop and potential rate cuts [3][5] - There is speculation that a rate cut in December could weaken the dollar and ease liquidity stress, potentially leading to a rebound in digital assets [5][6] Industry Evolution - Regardless of a potential recovery, the industry must address structural flaws to ensure long-term viability, as highlighted by industry experts [7]

See where your cash can still earn standout yields—up to 5%—before the Fed’s expected rate cut, including today’s top savings, CD, Treasury, and brokerage accounts. https://t.co/W8riKgUtT5 ...

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分组1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, with a majority of investors anticipating a quarter-point reduction in the upcoming policy meeting [22][23][24] - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 191,000 for the week ending November 29, down from 218,000 the previous week, marking the lowest level since September 2022 [21][22] - Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist believes the market is not pricing in enough Fed rate cuts for the next year, suggesting that more aggressive cuts are necessary [23][24] 分组2 - Netflix is reportedly in the lead to acquire Warner Brothers Discovery, indicating a significant strategic shift for the streaming giant [3] - Meta's shares have risen as the company plans to implement significant cuts in its metaverse units, continuing its transition towards artificial intelligence [3][49] - The market is currently experiencing conflicting signals, with strong earnings figures being overshadowed by concerns over economic data and inflation [11][12][22] 分组3 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its current interest rates, with no cuts anticipated in the near future despite inflation concerns [29][34] - Structural reforms in Europe are deemed necessary for economic growth, with calls for reducing red tape and improving the business environment [32][34] - The ECB's quantitative tightening measures are being closely monitored, with potential risks associated with liquidity distribution across the Eurozone [36][37] 分组4 - Bitcoin's recent price fluctuations are viewed as part of a maturing market cycle, with expectations for a more constructive macro backdrop for cryptocurrencies [52][66] - Regulatory clarity in the US is driving increased demand for digital asset infrastructure, with banks preparing to integrate blockchain technologies [69][70] - The debate around stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is ongoing, with differing views on their impact on traditional monetary systems [71][74]

Market Overview - Bitcoin is currently trading around $92,000, struggling to break above $93,000, indicating a lack of clear direction in recent sessions [1] - The one-month chart shows Bitcoin locked in a descending structure since early November, with the latest rebound resulting in a lower high, maintaining a broader corrective pattern [2] - Momentum remains weak, with intraday recovery attempts fading quickly, suggesting thin liquidity above current levels [3] Price Levels and Trends - A break below $91,000 could lead to support at $90,000–$90,500, while reclaiming $93,200 is necessary for bulls to invalidate the short-term downtrend [3] - Large-cap cryptocurrencies showed mixed performance, with Ether trading around $3,150, Solana down 4%, and XRP falling nearly 5% [4] - Market capitalization increased by approximately 1% in the past 24 hours, reaching near $3.2 trillion, indicating a slow recovery after a seven-week downturn [4] ETF Flows and Liquidations - There was a divergence in ETF flows, with spot Bitcoin products experiencing net outflows of $14.9 million, while Ether funds saw inflows of $140.2 million, indicating a rotation of capital from Bitcoin to Ethereum [5] - Liquidation data showed nearly $45 million in long liquidations for Bitcoin and over $103 million in short-side liquidations for Ether, suggesting volatility in the market [5] Macro Economic Factors - U.S. ADP payrolls fell by 32,000 in November, below expectations, indicating a cooling labor market, with futures markets now pricing in a 90% probability of a December rate cut [6] - The dollar index experienced sharp swings as traders adjusted their rate expectations, contributing to increased volatility in risk markets [6] Analyst Insights - An analyst noted that Bitcoin's brief test of $94,000 faced resistance from sellers, suggesting that stronger pushback may not occur until the $98,000–$100,000 range [7]

Let's bring in Mark Summerland, Evanflow of Evanflow macro Managing Partner, and Steve Moore, Unleash Prosperity co-founder and former Trump adviser. Uh so gentlemen, remember the day. It wasn't too long ago uh when during the Biden inflationary period, the media was saying everything was great despite the fact that the substantive facts, the the the the data we were getting all showed it wasn't so great.That inflation wasn't just transitory. that that that investment wasn't drying up or was drying up and a ...

The odds for a rate cut at next week's meeting now 90% according to the bond market. But our next guest says the Fed should not be cutting. Joining us here is former CEA chair Jason Ferman who is now a professor at Harvard Kennedy School was in the Obama administration.It's great to have you Jason. Welcome. >> Great to be with you.>> You do not think the Fed should be cutting. >> Yes. First of all, I don't disagree.They are going to cut next week. >> But they have a dual mandate. They are about onetenth of ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently debating the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut rates aggressively, with expectations shifting towards lower rates than previously anticipated [1][2][3]. Rate Expectations - The market is pricing in a terminal rate of 3%, but there are indications that the Fed committee may lean towards lower rates, as evidenced by five members suggesting rates below 3% in the September dot plot [2][3]. - Labor market weakness could further push the Fed to lower rates below the 3% mark, indicating a divergence between market expectations and Fed sentiment [3]. Market Signals - The two-year yield is not trading as low as expected given the terminal rate pricing, suggesting that the market is sending a message about inflation and growth expectations [4]. - Current nominal real GDP growth is around 2%, which should align with the two-year rate, but the market's behavior indicates a different outlook [4]. Equity Market Outlook - The consensus earnings forecast for the S&P 500 for the next year is approximately $300, raising questions about potential price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio movements [5][6]. - There is speculation about whether there will be P/E compression or expansion, with some suggesting that markets could reach valuations above 7000, which may seem excessive [6]. - Despite concerns about equity market valuations, traders appear reluctant to sell, indicating a current lack of compelling reasons to exit positions [7].