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Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin prefc. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at intothecryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in. So, we are about to have FOMC on December 10th.And what you'll notice is that the markets are expecting a rate cut, right. About an 87% chance of a rate cut. Let me go ahead and reload this ...

Mexico’s annual inflation accelerated more than expected last month, a week before policymakers are expected to deliver their last rate cut of the year https://t.co/SjD5ZueF2C ...

Core Viewpoint - A hawkish rate cut from the central bank may lead to muted stock market gains in December [1] Group 1 - The central bank's decision to cut rates is perceived as hawkish, which could influence market sentiment [1]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures showed volatility, fluctuating between gains and losses after declines on Monday, with major benchmark indices futures up [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee's two-day meeting is underway, with a focus on a potential rate cut decision expected tomorrow [1] - The 10-year Treasury bond yield is at 4.15%, while the two-year bond yield is at 3.58%, with an 89.4% likelihood of a rate cut in December according to CME Group's FedWatch tool [1] Futures Performance - Dow Jones futures increased by 0.04%, S&P 500 by 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 by 0.02%, while Russell 2000 decreased by 0.06% [2] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose by 0.063% to $684.06, and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) increased by 0.016% to $624.38 in premarket trading [2] Stocks in Focus - Ares Management Corp. (ARES) surged by 8.71% after being announced for inclusion in the S&P 500 index effective December 11 [6] - Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) increased by 1.57% following confirmation from President Trump that NVDA can ship H200 chips to approved customers in China and other countries [6] - Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) fell by 3.49% after reporting mixed financial results for Q4 of fiscal 2025 [6] - Tesla Inc. (TSLA) declined by 0.94% after Morgan Stanley downgraded it to equal-weight due to high valuation concerns [6] - Paramount Skydance Corp. (PSKY) rose by 1.72% after launching a $30 per share tender offer to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD), valuing it at $108.4 billion [13] Economic Insights - The Comerica Economic Weekly report indicates a cooling economy and anticipates a rate reduction of a quarter percentage point at the FOMC's final meeting of the year [10] - The report highlights a weaker job market with a decline in private payrolls and rising job cuts, alongside persistent inflation pressures from food and energy costs [12]

Inflation and Interest Rates - September PCE report showed inflation rose 28% year-over-year, the fastest pace since spring 2024 [1] - Tariffs impacted durable goods inflation, but overall inflation is expected to decrease from nearly 3% to around 2% next year [3][4] - The market anticipates the Fed will cut rates, but some dissenters suggest a more cautious approach [6] - Long-term yields are expected to remain around 4%, potentially rising to 45%, due to sticky inflation and supply issues [37] Economic Outlook - The US economy may experience a "code red affordability moment," particularly affecting lower-income individuals and young people [2][13] - Stimulus from tax cuts, the World Cup, and the US's 250th birthday could lead to a strong economic year [9] - Consumer spending remains strong, despite concerns about affordability [16][18] - AI is estimated to contribute about 25% to GDP growth, with AI-related capital expenditure representing approximately 15% of GDP [73][72] Market Dynamics - The market may broaden beyond the "Magnificent Seven" to focus on the "Impressive 493" stocks in the S&P 500, leveraging AI for productivity gains [21] - Bitcoin is primarily a trading vehicle influenced by technical factors rather than fundamentals, with stablecoins potentially replacing its transaction function [23][25] - The labor market shows signs of cooling, with increased layoff announcements and employers limiting headcount [89] - The Beige Book indicates cooler consumer spending and hiring, along with moderate price increases [87][91]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with indications that this is likely to occur [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Debate - There is a notable debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the balance of risks to the economy, specifically between inflationary pressures and labor market risks [3][4]. - Some members of the Federal Reserve are leaning towards a hawkish stance, suggesting that the risks may not be as balanced as others believe [2][5]. - The current monetary policy stance is under scrutiny, with discussions on whether it is restrictive or not, influencing the decision on rate cuts [4][5]. Group 2: Influence of Fed Leadership - The influence of a new Fed chair, such as Kevin Hassid, is acknowledged, but it is noted that the chair only has one vote among twelve, limiting their ability to unilaterally change policy direction [10][11]. - The new chair may initially advocate for significant rate cuts but could adopt a more cautious approach once in the role and working with the committee [13]. - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process is complex, and while a new chair can influence discussions, substantial changes in policy require consensus among committee members [11][12]. Group 3: Market Environment and Economic Outlook - The current economic environment is described as challenging, with the Federal Reserve facing difficulties in meeting its dual mandate, leading to uncertainty in economic forecasts [9]. - The lack of recent official economic data contributes to the complexity of the situation, allowing for differing opinions among Fed members [9]. - The ongoing discussions reflect a broader concern about the Fed's ability to navigate the current economic landscape effectively [9][15].

Let's bring in Kevin Green, senior markets correspondent, right away to help set up the action today. And honestly, let's set up the week. So, let's talk about the Fed this week.Really, all eyes are focused on that and what the decision will be. And I guess it's not so much about the decision, but where do we go from here. So, what are you watching for this week on that front.>> Yeah, Diane, good morning. Look, I think the market's obviously going to be focusing on the commentary from Jerome Powell during t ...

>> ALL RIGHT. WELCOME BACK TO SQUAWK BOX EVERYBODY. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE FUTURES THIS MORNING.DOW FUTURES UP BY ABOUT TEN POINTS S&P FUTURES UP BY SIX. THE NASDAQ INDICATED UP BY CLOSE TO 60 POINTS. AND JOINING US RIGHT NOW IS ED YARDENI.HE'S PRESIDENT AT YARDENI RESEARCH. AND WE COULD START BY TALKING ABOUT HOW THE MARKETS CONTINUE TO KIND OF MELT BACK UP OR NEAR ALL TIME HIGHS. BUT I THINK THE MOST INTERESTING THING, AND WHAT HAS KIND OF SHOCKED AND SURPRISED ME THIS MORNING, IS YOUR MOVE AWAY FROM TH ...

🇺🇸 UPDATE: Odds of a December rate cut are now at 88.4%, per CME data.3 days left until FOMC. https://t.co/8VZKACvFlK ...