Market Overview - The NASDAQ composite closed down 1.7%, the S&P 500 down over 1%, and the Dow Jones down nearly 0.5% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased to 4.15%, and the US dollar strengthened, putting pressure on risk assets [2] - Technology stocks, particularly affected by Oracle's decline due to AI funding concerns, saw significant losses [2][4] Sector Performance - Energy sector showed a rebound, while technology stocks faced declines, with Nvidia down over 3% and Alphabet and Tesla down more than 4% [2][3] - Cryptocurrency market saw Bitcoin down 2% and Ethereum down over 4% [5] - Commodities performed well, with crude oil up more than 2% and gold and silver near all-time highs, with silver up 125% year-to-date and gold up 64% [6] Micron's Earnings Report - Micron reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $4.78, beating the expected $3.95, and revenue of $13.64 billion, surpassing the consensus of $12.95 billion [7] - Guidance for Q2 EPS is projected between $8.22 to $8.62, significantly above the expected $4.71, with revenues forecasted between $18.3 billion to $19.1 billion, compared to the consensus of $14.38 billion [8] - Gross margins are expected to be between 67% to 69%, exceeding the street estimate of 55.7% [8] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Micron's strong performance is attributed to high demand for memory chips, particularly for AI applications, leading to supply constraints and increased pricing [12] - Analysts remain optimistic about Micron, with 85% rating it as a buy, despite its stock already being up 170% this year prior to the earnings report [8] - The competitive landscape includes Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, with Micron positioned as a strong player in high bandwidth memory (HBM) [19] Consumer Credit Trends - Higher income households are seeing improvements in delinquency rates, attributed to better income growth and access to credit [41][42] - Middle income households are experiencing slower increases in delinquency rates, while lower income households face persistently high rates of 7% to 9% [44][45] - Delinquency rates for auto loans and student loans are at their highest since the last financial crisis, while mortgage-related debt remains lower than in the 2010s [50] Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data includes the November Consumer Price Index (CPI), with forecasts of total and core CPI at 3.1% and 3% year-over-year, respectively [57] - Earnings reports from major companies like Accenture, Nike, and FedEx are anticipated, with Nike expected to see a sales rebound in the second half of the year [58]

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The September inflation reading of 3% represents moderate price growth, which is above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% but well below the elevated rates seen in 2022 and early 2023. ...

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - Rising oil prices due to sanctions on Venezuela and potential sanctions on Russia could impact the Fed's easing path, especially if it affects CPI data [1][2][3] - Rotation is expected to continue, with capital moving from high multiple mega-cap winners to small caps, cyclicals, and international markets [4][5] - Easy monetary policy from the Fed, including the end of quantitative tightening and rate cuts, along with fiscal policy, will likely support this trend [5][13] Investment Opportunities & Sector Analysis - Small caps, particularly the S&P 600, are favored due to undervaluation and historical outperformance during rate-cutting cycles [5][7] - Fiscal policy and tax bills are expected to benefit R&D-intensive small caps, but high-quality companies with strong balance sheets and consistent cash flows are preferred [8] - Financials are viewed optimistically, especially regional banks, with strong fundamental backdrop and potential for further growth [9] - Financials are experiencing the second strongest earning season in the S&P 500, with 25% year-over-year earnings growth expected, driven by steepening yield curve and capital markets activity [10] - Banks, insurance, and banks tied to capital markets activity are attractive within the financials sector [11] IPO Market - Increased liquidity and easy monetary policy are creating a positive environment for the IPO market [13] - The upcoming Medline IPO, the largest of the year, and the resolution of the government shutdown are expected to release a bottleneck of IPOs [12] Consumer Spending & Tax Refunds - Anticipated tax refunds in the range of $100 billion to $150 billion next year, or $1,000 to $2,000 per household, are expected to boost consumer-sensitive sectors [14][16] - Consumer discretionary, home builders, and banks are expected to benefit from the influx of tax refunds in early 2026 [15][16]

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about the most recent labor market report and how the unemployment rate has now risen to 4.6%. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Again, that sale will be ending at the end of the year, so make sure you lock in the lower rate. Now, right now, the unemployment rate is sta ...

Market Outlook - Katerina Simonetti from Morgan Stanley expects the US stock market to outperform international markets until 2026, driven by the technology sector and new market challenges [2] - The focus in the AI sector is shifting from infrastructure development to applicability and return on investment, with 2026 anticipated to be a pivotal year for demonstrating financial returns [3] - Simonetti predicts three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, contingent on economic conditions and the labor market, with potential impacts from tariff policies [4] Investment Strategy - The list of 11 undervalued stocks was curated using the Finviz stock screener, Seeking Alpha, CNN, and Insider Monkey's hedge fund database, focusing on stocks with a forward P/E ratio below 15 and an upside potential of over 30% [7] - The strategy of imitating top hedge fund stock picks has historically outperformed the market, with a reported return of 427.7% since May 2014 [8] Company Analysis: EOG Resources, Inc. - EOG Resources, Inc. has a forward P/E ratio of 10.35 and an analyst upside potential of 30.27%, with 61 hedge fund holders [10] - Analysts have mixed views on the oil sector, with expectations of a soft market in the coming quarters, but optimism for natural gas prices in 2026 [11] - The company exceeded expectations in fiscal Q3 2025, with total production up by 2% and a 5% increase in free cash flow guidance for 2025 due to lower operating costs [13] Company Analysis: XP Inc. - XP Inc. has a forward P/E ratio of 9.81 and an analyst upside potential of 30.55%, with 22 hedge fund holders [15] - Earnings growth for 2026 is expected to be around 8%, with strategic priorities focused on standardizing services and expanding distribution channels [16] - In fiscal Q3 2025, XP Inc. reported a 17.04% year-over-year revenue increase to $875.65 million, driven by a 12% increase in total client assets [18]

>> GOOD MORNING, HAPPY WEDNESDAY. THESE ARE THE STORIES THAT SET YOUR AGENDA. THE DOLLAR EDGES HIGHER, TREASURIES TRIM RECENT GAINS.TWO RATE CUTS NEXT YEAR AND THE U.S. LABOR MARKET CONTINUING TO COOL. OIL REBOUND FROM ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2021 AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP ORDERS A COMPLETE LOCATE OF SANCTIONED TANKERS GOING INTO AN OUT OF VENEZUELA. BLOOMBERG LEARNS THAT WARNER BROS.IS PREPARING TO REJECT PARAMOUNT'S HOSTILE BID AS THE U.S. PRESIDENTS SON-IN-LAW WITHDRAWS FROM THE TAKEOVER BATTLE. AFTER MIXED P ...

Economic Overview - The employment report indicates a cooling economy, with a loss of 105,000 jobs in October followed by a modest gain of 64,000 in November, primarily driven by the healthcare sector [1][2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level in over four years, surpassing the Federal Reserve's projection of 4.5% [2][3] Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The rising unemployment rate may prompt policymakers to ease financial conditions, although the Fed is monitoring a broader mix of inflation and growth data [4][6] - The Fed's current stance remains patient and data-dependent, with no immediate changes expected despite the recent job data [6][7] Leadership Transition and Its Impact - The potential emergence of a "shadow chair" could influence rate policy more than individual jobs reports, with Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh as leading candidates for the next Fed chair [8][10] - Hassett is viewed as a growth-friendly candidate likely to support earlier rate cuts, while Warsh is seen as more hawkish but could still cut rates later if economic conditions deteriorate [11][22] Market Reactions and Future Expectations - The likelihood of rate cuts by spring is higher than current market pricing suggests, with traders reassessing expectations based on the evolving economic landscape [8][25] - The distinction between Hassett and Warsh may not significantly alter the trajectory of rates but will influence the timing and manner of potential cuts [24][25]

>> ALL RIGHT. JP MORGAN RESEARCH NUMBER ONE BY EXTEL. CONGRATULATIONS ON THAT.>> THANK YOU SCOTT. >> IT'S GOOD TO HAVE YOUR VIEWS AND GET YOUR OUTLOOK DUBRAVKA. WE'LL SEE YOU SOON.ALL RIGHT NOW TO OUR PANEL. LET'S BRING IN SOPHIE ZILLIZ THOMAS NEW YORK LIFE INVESTMENTS LAUREN GOODWIN MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT ELLEN ZENTNER IT'S GREAT TO HAVE EVERYBODY HERE ON THE DESK WITH US. ALL RIGHT, LIZ, YOU FIRST.WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT WHAT MR. LAKOS HAD TO SAY. BASE CASE 7500, BULL CASE 8000.>> SO WHEN I LOOK ...

Diane, how would you describe uh this. Is it abnormal. Is it funky.Are we just in a waiting period of transition. What What do you say is going on here. >> Well, it certainly is an early chill for the holiday season, but I think you know consumers are still spending, which is ironic.The core retail sales, which goes into the GDP calculation for the retail sales data, actually was up 0.9%. So much better than that headline figure suggested. and data for September and August were revised up.So, we came into t ...