Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on Vale, RIO, BHP, and FMG, with a Sell rating on KIO [7] Core Insights - The iron ore market is expected to move into surplus starting in the second half of 2025, with prices projected to average around $90 per ton in 2026 due to increased supply from Australian projects and Simandou in Guinea [5][10] - Metallurgical coal prices are anticipated to remain range-bound at approximately $180 per ton over the next 1-2 years, with limited downside risk [6][15] Iron Ore Fundamentals - Supply and demand fundamentals for iron ore were initially tight in early 2025 but softened in the second quarter as seaborne supply recovered and steel production moderated [5] - Iron ore prices have softened since mid-May, influenced by elevated inventories at ports and mills in China, alongside moderating steel production [7] - The report expects a balanced market in 2025, transitioning to a surplus in 2026/27, driven by increased supply from major producers [10][13] Metallurgical Coal Fundamentals - Demand for metallurgical coal is challenged in regions like India and China due to high domestic production and increased supply from Mongolia [6] - The medium-term outlook for metallurgical coal is more favorable, but the market needs to absorb new supply over the next 1-2 years [6] - The report suggests that while prices are expected to remain stable, the market may rebalance by 2027/28 as demand grows and supply is curtailed [15] Supply and Demand Projections - Iron ore supply is expected to grow by approximately 3% annually in 2026 and 2027, with significant contributions from Australia and Brazil [11] - The report anticipates that China's steel demand will decline by about 1% per annum over the next 3-5 years, impacting iron ore demand [12] - For metallurgical coal, the report predicts a moderate growth in seaborne demand of 1-2% in the medium term, supported by new blast furnaces being constructed in India and Southeast Asia [15]

Supply Dynamics - Ethereum (ETH) net issuance since The Merge (1,030 days ago) is approximately 373,000 ETH [1] - ETH ETFs absorbed roughly 380,000 ETH in just 9 days [1] - ETF demand has consumed approximately 3 years of new ETH supply in under two weeks [1] Market Outlook - The analysis suggests a potential supply shock for both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) [1] Pricing Theory - The price of any good is determined at the margin, demand relative to supply [1]

Airline Industry Performance - Delta Air Lines Inc. experienced a 12% surge in stock price after reporting second-quarter results that exceeded both earnings and revenue expectations, indicating a strong demand outlook [1] - American Airlines Group Inc. shares increased by 12.5%, while United Airlines Holdings Inc. saw a 13.5% rise, contributing to a broad rally across the airline sector [2] - The U.S. Global Jets ETF, which tracks airline stocks, rose by 7.2%, marking its best performance since the 90-day tariff pause in April [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market showed resilience with initial jobless claims dropping to 237,000, surpassing forecasts, although continuing claims rose to 1.965 million, the highest since 2021 [6] Commodity Market Reactions - Copper futures increased by 2.2% to approximately $5.60 per pound, with silver and palladium also seeing gains of 1.6% and 3.6% respectively, driven by expectations of tightening supply [5] - Crude oil prices fell over 2% amid reports that OPEC+ is considering halting planned production increases starting in October, raising concerns about potential oversupply [5] Stock Market Overview - Major indices showed mixed performance, with the Russell 2000 up 0.7%, Dow Jones up 0.6%, and S&P 500 up 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 slipped by 0.3% [7] - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF inched up 0.2%, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.6% [9] Company-Specific Movements - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. rose over 4% after NorthCoast Research raised its price target, reiterating a 'Buy' rating [10] - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. climbed 3.3% as copper prices continued to rise amid supply concerns [10] - Nu Holdings Ltd. dropped 5.1% following the announcement of a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, leading to a selloff in Brazil-linked assets [10]

OPEC+’s latest super-sized supply hike and recent interactions with customers suggest persistent demand growth, Kuwait’s state energy company says https://t.co/GA1fl2eObW ...

We already talked about the super high. It seems like that's already taken a lot of the focus in these oil markets. What's expected today.Yeah, absolutely. Yvonne So I'm standing right in front of the Hopper Palace. You can see it right behind me.That is where the OpEx seminar is set to take place over the next couple of days. We're standing outside. We have asked for accreditation despite multiple requests.We have not heard back from them yet. But this is, as you say, an opportunity to hear from some of th ...

🔥 UPDATE: Bitcoin supply on exchanges has fallen to a new low. https://t.co/5SWak7KCj1 ...

Supply and Demand Dynamics - Chinese zinc smelters, responsible for over 50% of global supply, are experiencing increased pressure to reduce operating rates [1] - Capacity expansion is outpacing demand in the Chinese zinc smelting industry [1] Industry Analysis - Beijing Antaike Information reports on the growing pressure faced by Chinese zinc smelters [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the copper market, forecasting a price of $10,050 per ton for LME copper in August, with potential upside risks due to competition between China and the US for copper supplies [4]. Core Insights - China's refined copper demand has increased by 12% year-to-date as of May, driven by strong domestic demand and a significant rise in solar installations and air conditioning sales [1][39]. - The report anticipates a slowdown in China's refined copper demand growth in the second half of 2025, projecting a 6% growth for the year, influenced by lower exports and declining policy support for renewables and home appliances [1]. - The global copper market is tightening, particularly outside the US, due to increased imports from China and record low inventories [4]. Summary by Sections Price Forecasts - The forecast for LME copper is $9,934 per ton as of July 1, 2025, with expectations of reaching $10,000 in the next three months and $10,750 by 2027 [12]. Copper: Supply & Demand Tracker - Global copper mine production is up 2% year-to-date, with a forecast of a 1% year-over-year increase for the full year 2025 [32]. - World refined copper production has increased by 3% year-to-date, with a forecast of a 2% year-over-year increase for 2025 [34]. Copper: Physical Market Indicators - The report indicates that global visible copper stocks are only partially capturing US stockpiling, suggesting a tighter market [13]. Speculative Positioning - Speculative positioning in the copper market is concentrated due to tariff anticipation and tightening fundamentals outside the US [108].

Arabica coffee prices fell to their lowest in seven months as the return of dry weather helps accelerate harvesting in Brazil amid concerns over a weakness in demand. https://t.co/ZMgcnve0Cc ...

Market Dynamics - China's solar panel glass producers are planning deeper output cuts this month [1] - The output cuts are due to weakening demand and a surplus of supply [1] Industry Trends - China's solar panel glass producers rallied following the reports of output cuts [1]