Investment Highlights - Senior living investments are yielding returns in the 7% range [1] - Leveraged Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for senior living investments are in the low to mid-teens (13-15%) [1] - The senior living sector presents a unique combination of investment characteristics [1] Market Dynamics - The senior living sector is driven by needs-based demand [2] - The sector benefits from strong, durable, and decade-long tailwinds [2] - The senior living market is in its fourth year of growth, with continued and accelerating expansion [2]

From @WSJopinion: Empirical studies confirm a basic idea from economics: If you tax something, the price rises, and people use less of it. We don’t need fancy statistics to see the predictive power of simple supply and demand, writes @BrianCAlbrecht. https://t.co/lw2pElYrU1 ...

Turkey opened an investigation into dozens of power producers which it alleges failed to adjust their output to balance supply and demand, underlining one of the main challenges as intermittent renewables get a larger share of electricity markets https://t.co/7wZvANbGfu ...

Interest Rates and Housing Market - The market generally believes that a dovish Federal Reserve (J Pal) could positively impact the housing market, but the analysis suggests otherwise [1] - Long-term interest rates are expected to remain elevated, similar to the trend observed after the Federal Reserve cut 100 basis points at the end of 2024 [1] - There's a global aversion to taking on long duration, leading to higher long-term interest rates worldwide, with the UK 30-year gilt yield closing at its highest level since 1998 [2] - Homebuyers shouldn't necessarily expect significant rate relief from short-term interest rate cuts, especially when locking in a 30-year mortgage [2][3] Housing Supply and Demand - A significant increase in the supply of existing homes is needed, primarily driven by baby boomers downsizing [4] - Stimulating housing demand through low mortgage rates without a corresponding increase in supply will only lead to higher home prices, negating the benefits of lower rates [8] - Lower mortgage rates and increased supply are both necessary to increase transaction activity in the housing market [8] Homebuilder Earnings - Increased existing home supply and declining home prices, while stimulating demand, could negatively impact homebuilder earnings, creating a "catch 22" situation [5] Mortgage Rates - Many homeowners have mortgages under 5%, even under 4%, making it difficult to move despite downsizing desires due to potential mortgage rate increases [6]

Market Technicals - Bulls are looking for a breakout above the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, with the 50-day at $65.70 as a key level for confirming momentum shift [1] - A close above $65.70 is necessary to attract new long positions, while failure to hold above $64.06 could lead to increased selling pressure [1] Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming Trump-Putin summit is causing market nerves, with potential ceasefire talks in Ukraine seen as bearish for crude oil prices due to the possibility of eased sanctions on Russian oil [2][3] - The situation remains fluid, with Trump threatening secondary sanctions on countries like India and China, adding to the headline risk [3] Demand Concerns - Weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data has raised concerns about oil demand, despite a nearly 9% year-over-year increase in refinery throughput in July [4] - The month-on-month slowdown in refinery throughput and higher product exports suggest that domestic fuel demand in China may be leveling off [4] Supply Outlook - Bank of America has increased its oil surplus forecast to nearly 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) through mid-2026, citing rising OPEC+ output [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also expressed concerns about a "bloated" market, indicating a bearish supply outlook [5] - The Baker Hughes oil rig count has increased by one to 412, signaling that U.S. supply is not diminishing [5] Price Forecast - With resistance at $64.06 holding firm and no bullish catalysts in sight, the outlook for crude oil is leaning towards the downside [6] - A break below $61.94 could trigger further selling, while prices need to clear $65.70 to avoid being stuck in a consolidation range with downside risks [6]

Heard on the Street: CoreWeave is about to find out just how much the forces of supply and demand will keep breaking in its favor https://t.co/wyuMk3eozt ...

New assessments by top oil forecasters reveal just how much OPEC's pivot on supplies upended global markets, writes @oil_gs01 https://t.co/fxALWtEoD7 ...

Global oil markets are on track for a record surplus next year as demand growth slows and supplies swell, the International Energy Agency says https://t.co/DvUqLXA6Us ...

Summary of Werner Enterprises (WERN) 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Werner Enterprises - **Industry**: Transportation and Logistics - **Key Metrics**: - Founded nearly 69 years ago - Operates with approximately 13,000 associates, 7,500 trucks, and 28,000 trailing assets - One of the largest trucking and logistics companies in the U.S. with a dedicated fleet ranking sixth in size - Logistics segment accounts for nearly 30% of total revenues [6][5][22] Core Business Segments - **Trucking Transportation Services (TTS)**: - Represents about 70% of total revenues - Two-thirds of TTS is dedicated business, characterized by long-term contracts and high service requirements [7][6] - Remaining third focuses on One Way Truckload business, including expedited services and cross-border operations with Mexico [8][6] - **Logistics Segment**: - Fastest growing segment, contributing about 30% of total revenues - Includes truckload brokerage, intermodal, and dedicated final mile solutions [9][6] - Truckload logistics constitutes 75% of the logistics segment [9][6] Financial Performance - **2024 Revenue**: $3 billion, with a diverse customer base including top U.S. retailers and manufacturing sectors [13][6] - **Q2 2025 Results**: - Revenues of $753 million, down 1% year-over-year - Adjusted EPS of $0.11, improved from Q1 [16][6] - Notable improvements in logistics lines of business and gains on sale of nearly $6 million, marking the first year-over-year improvement in nine quarters [17][6] Strategic Priorities - **Growth in Core Business**: Focus on dedicated fleet growth and winning new customers [18][6] - **Operational Excellence**: Emphasis on safety and hiring quality drivers [20][6] - **Capital Efficiency**: Strong operating cash flow and optimized working capital [21][6] Demand Environment - **Demand Trends**: - Seasonally stable demand in One Way, with rising demand in Dedicated and Logistics [26][6] - Notable increase in logistics driven by technology investments and cross-selling opportunities [28][6] - **Customer Sentiment**: Shift towards quality and reliability, with customers seeking dependable providers [34][6] Supply Chain Dynamics - **Supply Side**: - Employment data returning to pre-COVID levels, with rising bankruptcies in the industry [44][6] - Regulatory enforcement expected to impact supply positively [50][6] Technology and Innovation - **Technological Advances**: - Development of Edge TMS platform to improve visibility and customer service in logistics [12][6] - Transitioning One Way and Dedicated business to the same platform for better load visibility [63][6] Cost Management - **Cost Reduction Initiatives**: - Increased cost-cutting target to $45 million for 2025, with $20 million achieved in the first half [79][6] - Operational expenses in logistics down 9% year-over-year [80][6] Capital Allocation - **Share Repurchase Plan**: - Announced an increase in share repurchase plan amounting to 8% of market cap, with $55 million in repurchases in Q2 [96][6] Conclusion - **Outlook**: - Confidence in achieving low double-digit margins in the long term through structural changes and technology investments [94][6] - Positive trends in demand and operational efficiency expected to continue [95][6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Aluminium and Alumina - **Geographical Focus**: Indonesia, China, India, and global markets Aluminium Market Insights - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: - Primary aluminium demand growth is expected to be around 2.5% for 2024/25, slightly below the trend of 3-4% [2] - Supply growth is anticipated to match demand, leading to a modest surplus in the global aluminium market [2] - Limited supply growth is expected due to China smelter run rates being at the 45 million tonnes (mt) cap, with potential projects in Indonesia, India, Middle East, and Africa contributing modestly over the next 2-3 years [2][8] - The LME price is above the cost curve, indicating an improving supply and demand outlook [2] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Preferred stocks for aluminium exposure include Hydro and Press Metal (BUY) while Alcoa and S32 are rated Neutral [1] - **Medium-Term Price Risks**: - Limited scope for the industry to quickly lift supply when demand improves, resulting in tighter markets and medium-term price risks skewed to the upside [2] Alumina Market Insights - **Price Trends**: - After a sharp decline in the first half of 2025, alumina prices have bounced back, trading between $370-380 per tonne [3][41] - Prices are expected to remain anchored to the cost curve due to significant overcapacity in China and additional supply from Indonesia and India [3][41] - **Supply Outlook**: - China is expected to add 7-10 million tonnes of new capacity in 2025, contributing to overcapacity [3] - Approximately 6 million tonnes of projects are ramping up in Indonesia, with an additional 2.5 million tonnes in India [3][35] Indonesia's Role in Aluminium Supply - **Capacity Additions**: - Indonesia is expected to be a significant contributor to global supply growth, with 2.2 million tonnes of new aluminium supply projected over the next 3-4 years [10][22] - Current projects in Indonesia are constrained by insufficient land and power, limiting overwhelming growth in supply [10][15] - **Power Constraints**: - Aluminium smelting is power-intensive, requiring approximately 15 terawatt-hours (TWh) of power for 1 million tonnes of capacity [11][13] - The planned 2.2 million tonnes of aluminium smelters would consume about 40% of the power currently used by the nickel industry, necessitating a 10% growth in national power output over 3-4 years [13] Risks and Considerations - **Alumina Supply Risks**: - The combination of additional supply from Indonesia and overcapacity in China is likely to limit sustainable upside in alumina prices [3][41] - Potential disruptions in bauxite supply from Guinea could create upside risks for alumina prices, but sustained tightness is not the central case [34] - **Market Dynamics**: - The aluminium market is closely monitoring the evolution of Indonesia's industrial parks and smelter project pipeline, with measured growth in aluminium supply expected rather than overwhelming growth [15] Conclusion - The aluminium market is characterized by limited supply growth and a positive fundamental outlook, while the alumina market faces challenges from overcapacity and price volatility. Indonesia's role as a growing supplier is significant, but power constraints and project development challenges may temper expectations for rapid supply increases.