Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Domestic reports of customs control on soybean imports are bullish for near-term contracts and positive spreads. Attention should be paid to customs policy dynamics and the auction of imported soybeans after New Year's Day. US soybean exports are weak, and there is currently no obvious speculative driver in South American weather. Brazilian premiums are expected to face pressure in the future, and the M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak. Overall, the market is expected to be stronger in the near term and weaker in the long term [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread Data - On December 30th, the Dalian basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) was 382, down 24; the Tianjin basis was 362, down 4; the Rizhao basis was 322, down 24. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was 342, down 14 [4] - The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 94, up 6 [4] - The RM1 - 5 spread was 69, down 9; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 536, down 10; the spot spread (Guangdong) was 300, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread on the main contract was 375, down 12 [5] International and Domestic Inventory Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9605, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 117.00 cents per bushel, up 2. The Brazilian soybean crushing margin on the futures market was 152 yuan per ton [5] - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a historically high level for the same period. The reduction of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the pressure on spot supply remains high. It is expected that the inventory will be reduced more rapidly from December to January. This week, the number of days of soybean meal inventory held by feed enterprises increased [7][8] Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: According to CONAB data, the predicted output of Brazil's new soybean crop in the 25/26 season is 177.6 million tons. As of December 5th, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 90.3%, compared to 88% last week, 94.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 89.8%. According to BAGE, as of December 3rd, the soybean planting progress in Argentina was 4.7%, compared to 36% last week and 50% in the same period last year. There are no obvious short - term weather problems in the forecast. From December to January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to experience seasonal inventory reduction. There are rumors that customs have delayed the release of soybeans for 25 days, increasing concerns about domestic soybean supply in the first quarter of next year. Domestic auctions of imported soybeans have been held, with high transaction premiums. Attention should be paid to subsequent auction results [7] - **Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels in the short term, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased. Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal have been normal, and the提货 performance has been good [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For aluminum, the domestic operating capacity is at a high level approaching the ceiling, and the import window is closed. Although the construction demand is entering the off - season, new energy and automotive aluminum demand provide support. High industry profits and low inventory support prices, but high aluminum prices suppress downstream procurement, and concerns about macro - liquidity tightening lead to high - level fluctuations in the market [3]. - For alumina, the operating capacity is at a historical high with new capacity being gradually put into production. Downstream electrolytic aluminum is squeezed by high costs, leading to reduced demand and price decline. The market may enter a bottom - shock phase [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Market Market Situation - The domestic aluminum market shows high - level fluctuations. High prices suppress downstream procurement, and there are concerns about macro - liquidity tightening [3][8]. Supply - Domestic operating capacity is at a high level close to the ceiling, and the import window is closed [3]. Demand - Construction demand is in the off - season, but new energy and automotive aluminum demand provide support [3]. Factors Affecting Price - **Lidofactors**: Clear domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity ceiling policy and insufficient global supply elasticity; low alumina prices maintain high corporate profitability [4]. - **Negative factors**: It is the traditional consumption off - season, high aluminum prices suppress downstream procurement, and there are concerns about Fed policy and macro - liquidity tightening [8]. Alumina Market Market Situation - The alumina market is weak with prices falling below the average cash cost and inventory accumulating [4]. Supply - Operating capacity is at a historical high, and new capacity is being gradually put into production [4]. Demand - Downstream electrolytic aluminum is squeezed by high costs, with some high - cost areas having production - cut expectations, leading to slower demand growth [4]. Factors Affecting Price - **Lidofactors**: Some regional alumina enterprises adjust production due to losses, and there is a short - term increase in domestic anti - cut - throat competition sentiment [5]. - **Negative factors**: New domestic alumina capacity will increase supply pressure, and the expected production cuts in downstream electrolytic aluminum will suppress demand [9]. Upstream Supply Bauxite - Domestic bauxite production and import volume show seasonal patterns, and port inventory also has seasonal changes [21][22]. Alumina - Alumina production, import volume, and inventory show seasonal characteristics. The national and provincial - level weekly operating rates also have corresponding trends [24][26][27]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The production, net import volume, and inventory of electrolytic aluminum show seasonal patterns [32][34][35]. Downstream Demand Product Output - The output of aluminum ingots, aluminum rods, and various aluminum products shows seasonal characteristics [37][40]. Operating Rate - The operating rates of various aluminum products' production show seasonal changes, including weekly and monthly operating rates [44][45][50]. Export - The export volume and profit of unforged aluminum and aluminum products show seasonal patterns [52][53]. End - user Demand - The demand in industries such as construction, automotive, power grid, and new energy shows seasonal characteristics, which affects the demand for aluminum [56][58][61]. Inventory - The inventories of bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum rods, and aluminum ingots + aluminum rods show seasonal changes [65][68][70]. Cost and Profit - The prices of raw materials such as bauxite, alumina, pre - baked anodes, and energy sources (coal, natural gas, electricity) show corresponding trends, which affect the cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum [73][74][75].

So, when a seller takes their home off the market, it's called a D-listing. And those are now happening at an unusually high rate. D-listings in October, which are reported with a one-mon lag, were up 45% year-to- date and up nearly 38% from October of last year.That's according to a new report from realtor. com. Now, this is the highest D-listing year since they began tracking this in 2022.D-listings began to rise in June and have remained elevated for five straight months. So about 6% of active listings h ...

So, let's get right into this report, Joel. So, mortgage rates, you say here, expected to stay above 6% in 2026. Your forecast, Joel, if I have this right, is 6.3% average mortgage rates next year.Let's start there, Joel. Why Why do they stay above 6%, Joel. And what does that mean for affordability next year.really we see 2026 as a year of steadying across a lot of dimensions of the housing market. Mortgage rates are one piece of that. Uh we expect uh the the Federal Reserve's cuts in December to already b ...

Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) Analysis - Critics argue Nvidia's DSO increase from an average of 46 days in FY2020-2024 to 53 days in Q3 FY26 indicates financial irregularities [1] - The increase in DSO is reasonable due to accounts receivable concentration, with major customers' share rising from 238% in FY2020-2024 to 65% in Q3 FY26 [2] - Cloud service providers (CSPs) have significant bargaining power, leading to longer payment terms and influencing DSO [3] - Comparing Nvidia's DSO to suppliers with similar CSP customers, such as Arista, Celestica, and Vertiv (whose DSOs typically run above 60-70 days), makes Nvidia's 53-day DSO appear reasonable [3] Inventory Analysis - Critics describe the 32% QoQ increase in Nvidia's Q3 FY26 inventory as a "paradox," citing Q2 FY23 as a counterexample [3] - Q2 FY23 inventory increased by roughly 23% QoQ to USD 3889 billion, contradicting the claim of an 18% decline [4] - The 32% increase in Q3 FY26 inventory aligns with the ramp in upstream capacity, as TSMC's CoWoS average monthly output grew by roughly 25-30% QoQ to around 60 thousand wafers per month (kwpm) in 3Q25 [5] - Work-in-Process (WIP) represented 442% of Nvidia's total inventory in Q3 FY26, surging about 98% QoQ to USD 8735 billion, reflecting the ramp and mass production of the new Blackwell B300 GPU [5]

Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) Analysis - Critics argue Nvidia's DSO increase from an average of 46 days in FY2020-2024 to 53 days in Q3 FY26 indicates financial irregularities [1] - The increase in DSO is reasonable due to a shift in accounts receivable concentration, with major customers accounting for 65% in Q3 FY26, up from an average of 238% in FY2020-2024 [2] - Cloud service providers (CSPs) have significant bargaining power and historically operate with longer payment terms, justifying the rise in DSO [3] - Nvidia's 53-day DSO is reasonable when compared to suppliers like Arista, Celestica, and Vertiv, whose DSOs typically exceed 60-70 days [3] Inventory Analysis - Critics describe the 32% QoQ increase in Nvidia's Q3 FY26 inventory as a "paradox" [3] - Q2 FY23 inventory increased by roughly 23% QoQ to USD 3889 billion, contradicting claims of a decline [4] - The 32% increase in Q3 FY26 inventory aligns with the ramp in upstream capacity, with TSMC's CoWoS average monthly output growing by roughly 25-30% QoQ to around 60kwpm [5] - Work-in-Process (WIP) represented 442% of Nvidia's total inventory in Q3 FY26, surging about 98% QoQ to USD 8735 billion, reflecting the ramp and mass production of the new Blackwell B300 GPU [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices maintained a weak and volatile trend. The profit of power - off - peak electricity for short - process steel decreased and fell into losses, leading to a reduction in production. The profit of long - process steel also fell into losses, but after the parade, the hot metal production quickly recovered to over 2.4 million tons. The overall supply remained high. The demand for hot - rolled coils recovered rapidly, while the demand for rebar declined due to large warehouse receipt pressure. The overall inventory continued to accumulate, with the rebar inventory accumulating faster than last year. It is expected that the short - term steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. The trading strategy suggests maintaining a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options [4][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook 3.1.1 Market Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 2.1868 million tons (- 0.0188 million tons), and that of hot - rolled coils was 3.1424 million tons (- 0.105 million tons). The daily average hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 2.4055 million tons (+ 0.1171 million tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 35.2% (- 0.3%). The cost of flat - rate electricity for electric furnaces in East China was about 3,373 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price), with a profit of - 166.92 yuan/ton. The cost of off - peak electricity was about 3,208 yuan/ton (converted to theoretical weight), and the profit of off - peak electricity for the third - tier rebar in East China was - 2 yuan/ton [4]. - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 2.0207 million tons (- 0.04 million tons), and that for hot - rolled coils was 3.0536 million tons (+ 0.208 million tons). From January to July, the growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment decreased month - on - month, and the incremental investment in domestic projects was insufficient. In July, the decline in housing sales, land acquisition, new construction, and completion areas widened, and the overall demand for housing construction was weak. The manufacturing PMI contracted, and the new orders, production, and export data all declined. The production and export of Chinese automobiles in July increased year - on - year, but the industry profit continued to shrink. The production schedule of three major white goods in September decreased year - on - year, and it is expected to decline further in October. The initial value of the US manufacturing PMI in August reached a 39 - month high, and the initial value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in August returned to the expansion range for the first time in three years [4]. - **Inventory**: The rebar inventory in steel mills decreased by 47,100 tons, and the social inventory increased by 185,700 tons, with a total increase of 138,600 tons. The hot - rolled coil inventory in steel mills increased by 9,000 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 19,200 tons, with a total decrease of 10,200 tons. The total inventory of five major steel products in steel mills decreased by 35,000 tons, and the social inventory increased by 174,100 tons, with a total increase of 139,100 tons [4]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - It is expected that the rebar production will continue to decrease due to serious losses in both short - and long - process production, while the hot - rolled coil production will continue to resume as it remains profitable. The overall inventory will continue to accumulate, with the rebar inventory accumulating faster than last year, and the hot - rolled coil inventory starting to decline. The steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. In September, attention should be paid to the peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies. The trading strategy suggests a bottom - oscillating trend for single - side trading and a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options [7]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,220 yuan (- 20 yuan), and in Beijing was 3,160 yuan (- 30 yuan). The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3,380 yuan (unchanged), and that of HBIS hot - rolled coils in Tianjin was 3,310 yuan (unchanged) [11]. - **Profits**: The flat - rate electricity profit of electric furnaces in East China was - 166 yuan (- 39 yuan), and the off - peak electricity profit was - 2 yuan (- 39 yuan) [29]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data - **US Data**: The unadjusted CPI annual rate in the US in August reached 2.9%, the highest since January, in line with market expectations. The seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate was 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.3%. The number of initial jobless claims in the week of September 6 was 263,000, higher than the expected 235,000 [31]. - **Chinese Data**: In August, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.995 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. From January to August, the cumulative retail sales were 14.741 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In July, the new social financing was 1.13 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans of - 5 billion yuan. The loans on the household side were - 48.93 billion yuan, and enterprise loans were 60 trillion yuan. From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was + 1.6%, with a decline in growth rate month - on - month [31][38]. - **Egyptian Data**: Egypt launched safeguard measure investigations on imported steel billets, cold - rolled coils, galvanized sheets, and pre - painted sheets on September 10, 2025, and made a positive preliminary ruling on imported hot - rolled coils on September 10, suggesting the collection of temporary safeguard measure taxes from September 14, 2025, to April 1, 2026 [31]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation 3.4.1 Supply - The daily average hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 2.4055 million tons (+ 0.1171 million tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 34.7% (- 0.5%) [56]. - The small - sample production of rebar was 2.1193 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0675 million tons, and that of hot - rolled coils was 3.2514 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.109 million tons [62]. 3.4.2 Demand - The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 1.9807 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 million tons, and that for hot - rolled coils was 3.2616 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.208 million tons [65]. - As of September 9, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.03%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points, while that of housing construction projects was 50.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.64 percentage points [74]. - From January to July 2025, China's cumulative steel exports were 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. In July, the steel exports were 9.836 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.158 million tons. The high - frequency data in August showed that direct steel exports remained high, but the export profit shrank recently [77]. 3.4.3 Inventory - The overall inventory situation showed that the rebar inventory continued to accumulate, while the hot - rolled coil inventory started to decline. The total rebar inventory and its breakdown into social and steel mill inventories, as well as the total hot - rolled coil inventory and its breakdown, are presented in the relevant graphs [82][84].

Market Trends & Inventory - Nationwide, single-family home inventory is up 27%, and total inventory (including condos) is up 16% [3] - 42% of homes on the market have experienced a price drop, the highest in 12 years, indicating increased negotiability for buyers [3] - Northeast market is performing better due to lower supply, while Florida is experiencing a significant shift with 8% fewer transactions year-over-year [6] - Nine states have seen year-over-year price decreases, including Texas, reflecting a shift from COVID-era migration patterns [6] Rental Market - Overall, rental prices are performing better, with year-over-year decreases in some areas [7] - New York City rentals are up 7% year-over-year due to the fair act shifting rental commissions to landlords [7] Affordability & Policy - The discussion revolves around increasing affordability in New York City, with the CEO advocating for increased supply through incentivizing developers and landlords to build more [8][10] - Austin's example is cited, where increased inventory led to a 15% decrease in prices year-over-year [11] - Converting commercial properties to residential and easing building restrictions are proposed solutions for New York City [12] - A mayoral candidate's policies are perceived to have a modest negative impact on market sentiment and sales [14] Compass's Performance - Compass reported record earnings, including record EBITDA, free cash flow, EBITDA margin, market share, revenue, agent recruiting, and platform usage [2] - The company has experienced 17 consecutive quarters of organic growth faster than the market [2] Legal & Competitive Landscape - Compass is suing Zillow on behalf of agents and home sellers, alleging monopolistic practices related to listing requirements and referral fees [16][17]

Sector Performance & Rebound Potential - Consumer discretionary sector is the worst performing sector this year, but may rebound in the second half [1] - Product newness and tariff implementation will dictate the sentiment in the second half of the year [3] Consumer Behavior & Retailer Strategy - Customers are trading down, with Walmart's biggest growth coming from higher-income consumers [4] - Companies are being more cautious with inventory for the holiday season due to tariffs [4] - Value, discounters, and brand leaders are key, with revivals also contributing to growth, such as Wolverine Worldwide's Sakin up 30% [7] Brand & Product Dynamics - Brand leaders with newness drive demand, like Birkenstock's closed-toe shoes and collaborations such as Levi's and Nike [5] - Unique items allow for better pricing, but overall price upticks have been limited [5][6] Trade & Tariffs - Vietnam tariffs include a 20% tariff on exports to the US and a 40% transshipment tariff on goods from third countries, potentially targeting China [8][9] - Supply chain dynamics are challenging, with freight expenses as a headwind and potential price increases in the mid to high single-digit range [9] - Retailers can navigate tariffs by diversifying sourcing, sharing costs with manufacturers, and raising prices to consumers [10] - Companies suspended earnings guidance due to uncertainty about tariff impacts on margins and costs [10] - Shifting sourcing away from North America due to high labor costs, with tariff levels dictating stock prices [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The supply of soybean meal is expected to improve, with significant drops in spot prices and basis, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. Considering the low valuation and support from import costs, it is recommended to go long on contract 109 at low prices [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Basis Data - Basis data for the soybean meal main contract in various regions (Dalian, Tianjin, etc.) on April 28 are presented, along with historical basis data from 2019/20 to 2024/25 [3] - Basis data for rapeseed meal in Guangdong are also provided, including historical data from 2018/19 to 2024/25 [3] Spread Data - Spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong are shown, along with historical spread data from 2018/19 to 2024/25 [4] International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.2995, and the soybean CNF premium and import soybean crushing margin data are presented [4] Inventory Data - Data on the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills, soybean inventory at Chinese ports, soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises are provided, showing trends from 2020 to 2025 [4] 开机 and压榨情况 - Data on the operating rate and soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are presented, showing trends from 2020 to 2025 [4] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Spot supply is tight, customs clearance time has been extended in some areas, a large amount of Brazilian soybeans are expected to arrive in May and June, the planting area of new US soybeans is expected to shrink further, and recent rainfall in US soybean - growing areas may improve soil moisture but delay the sowing progress [4] - Demand side: Pig supply is expected to increase steadily before September, the inventory of meat and egg poultry is expected to remain high in the first half of the year, the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased significantly recently, wheat has replaced corn in some areas, reducing the demand for protein, and the downstream trading and pick - up performance is poor [4][5] - Inventory: Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, soybean meal inventory is at a very low level and is expected to gradually recover, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has decreased to a low level, with an expected improvement in restocking willingness [5]