Core Viewpoint - Skechers has agreed to be taken private by 3G Capital in a $9.4 billion deal amid challenges from US tariffs and trade policies [1][2][3] Group 1: Deal Details - The acquisition price is set at $63 per share, which represents a 28% premium over Skechers' stock price prior to the announcement [1] - Following the announcement, Skechers' shares increased by 25% to $61.61 [1] - The deal is expected to close in the third quarter of 2025 and will be financed through cash from 3G Capital and debt financing from JPMorgan Chase Bank [4] Group 2: Market Context - Skechers withdrew its annual results forecast last month due to the impact of the Trump administration's trade policies on the global economy and consumer sentiment [2][5] - The Trump administration has increased import tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, significantly affecting Skechers as China constitutes a major source of imports for its US business [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nucor generated EBITDA of $696 million and earned $0.77 of adjusted EPS in Q1 2025, despite lower results compared to prior quarters [7] - Net earnings were $156 million or $0.67 per share, including pretax charges of $29 million related to facility closures [19] - The company returned nearly $430 million to shareholders during the quarter [7][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The steel mill segment generated adjusted pretax earnings of $241 million, increasing approximately 43% from the prior quarter, with volume increasing 14% [20] - The bar mill group saw shipments rise 21% compared to the prior quarter and 20% year over year [20] - The steel products segment generated adjusted pretax earnings of $37 million, with backlog growth of nearly 25% across all downstream products [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Backlogs rose over 30% in steel mill segments and nearly 25% in steel products [15] - The company noted steady to improving demand for steel among customers engaged in rebuilding American industry [16] - The structural backlog is at the highest levels in Nucor's history, indicating strong future demand [76] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Nucor is focused on long-term growth plans, reinvesting nearly $860 million into the company, with two-thirds allocated to projects commencing operations in the next two years [7][8] - The company is expanding its capabilities through acquisitions and organic growth investments, establishing four distinct platforms with higher growth potential [24] - Nucor aims to strengthen and diversify its earnings profile while addressing evolving customer needs [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing a robust order book and healthy demand across various sectors, including advanced manufacturing and infrastructure projects [16][17] - The company is well-positioned to capture domestic steel demand growth, supported by favorable trade policies [32] - Management acknowledged macroeconomic uncertainties but emphasized Nucor's strong financial position and capabilities to navigate challenges [17] Other Important Information - Nucor's greenhouse gas emission intensity is among the lowest in the global steel industry, and the company is advancing cleaner energy sources [18] - The company has made significant progress in reducing injuries over the past several years [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expected startup costs for 2025? - Management indicated that startup costs for 2025 would be similar to previous years, around $160 million to $170 million [36] Question: What is the expected utilization at Brandenburg by year-end 2025? - Management expressed confidence in achieving EBITDA positive run rates by summer and highlighted significant production achievements at Brandenburg [39] Question: Can you provide clarity on second quarter guidance? - Management refrained from providing specific quantitative guidance but acknowledged strong order entry rates and backlogs [50] Question: How is Nucor mitigating tariff impacts? - Management stated that the impact of tariffs on raw materials is minimal due to diversified supply strategies and ongoing monitoring of market conditions [54] Question: What is the impact of Section 232 on downstream products? - Management noted that the extension of Section 232 is having a positive impact, with imports dropping below 20% for the first time in years [64] Question: What is the outlook for steel products pricing? - Management indicated that while pricing may decline in the short term, margins are expected to remain stable due to lower substrate costs [66] Question: How did the first quarter results compare to expectations? - Management attributed the earnings beat primarily to volume increases in the steel segment, particularly in bar and sheet products [87] Question: What is the current status of the West Virginia project? - Management confirmed that the West Virginia project is on track for a late 2026 startup, with significant progress made [111]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nucor generated EBITDA of $696 million and earned $0.77 of adjusted EPS in Q1 2025, despite lower results compared to prior quarters [7] - Net earnings were $156 million or $0.67 per share, including pretax charges of $29 million related to facility closures [19] - The company incurred $170 million in pre-operating and startup costs during the quarter [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The steel mill segment generated adjusted pretax earnings of $241 million, increasing approximately 43% from the prior quarter, with a volume increase of 14% [20] - The bar mill group saw shipments rise 21% compared to the prior quarter and 20% year over year [20] - The steel products segment generated adjusted pretax earnings of $37 million, with backlog growth of nearly 25% across all downstream products [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Backlogs rose over 30% in the steel mill segments and nearly 25% in steel products [15] - The company noted steady to improving demand for steel among customers engaged in rebuilding American industry [16] - The structural backlog is at the highest levels in Nucor's history, indicating strong future demand [76] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Nucor is focused on long-term growth plans, reinvesting nearly $860 million into the company, with two-thirds allocated to projects commencing operations in the next two years [7] - The company is advancing its "expand beyond" strategy and driving key acquisitions to strengthen and diversify its earnings profile [8] - Nucor aims to maintain a strong investment-grade credit quality and has raised $1 billion in senior notes to pre-fund upcoming debt maturities [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing a robust order book and healthy demand across various sectors, including advanced manufacturing and infrastructure projects [16][78] - The company is well-positioned to capture domestic steel demand growth, with expectations for earnings to be meaningfully higher in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 [31] - Management acknowledged macroeconomic uncertainties but emphasized Nucor's strong capabilities and financial strength to navigate these challenges [17] Other Important Information - Nucor's greenhouse gas emission intensity is among the lowest in the global steel industry, and the company is advancing cleaner energy sources [18] - The company has made several acquisitions since 2022 to expand its construction products capabilities, establishing four distinct platforms with higher growth potential [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide clarity on the magnitude of startup costs for 2025? - Management indicated that startup costs for the balance of the year would be similar to previous quarters, around $160 million to $170 million [36] Question: What are the expected utilization rates for the Brandenburg mill by year-end 2025? - Management expressed confidence in achieving EBITDA positive run rates by summer and highlighted significant production achievements [39] Question: Can you provide guidance on the second quarter outlook? - Management refrained from providing specific quantitative guidance but acknowledged strong order entry rates and backlogs [50] Question: How is Nucor mitigating tariff impacts on raw materials? - Management emphasized a diversified raw material supply strategy and noted that the impact of tariffs on raw materials is minimal [54] Question: What is the impact of Section 232 on downstream products? - Management noted that the extension of Section 232 is having a positive impact, with imports dropping below 20% for the first time in years [64] Question: Can you clarify the adjusted EPS compared to guidance? - The beat in adjusted EPS was driven primarily by volume increases in the steel segment, particularly in bar and sheet products [87] Question: What contributed to the gross margin squeeze? - Management identified higher energy costs and increased scrap costs as contributing factors to the margin squeeze [90] Question: Is there any speculation for tariffs included in the $3 billion CapEx? - Management confirmed that the CapEx does not include any speculation for tariffs [94]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Global trade volumes have been holding up relatively well in April, with air freight markets re-accelerating after a slowdown [1] - A forecasted 1% year-over-year decline in global container volumes for 2025, primarily driven by declines in the Pacific region [2] - Container rates have remained steady, supported by blanked sailings on the Pacific [3] Summary by Sections Freight: Holding up for now - High-frequency freight data indicates that global trade volumes are stable, with air freight showing signs of recovery [1] Air Freight: April supported by frontloading - Air freight volumes have seen a resurgence due to frontloading, with strong indicators from Europe and Asia [1][2] Sea: April holding up, SE Asia strong - Container volumes increased by 7% year-over-year in March, with Southeast Asia showing robust trade activity [35] Shipping: Blanking supports rates for now - China-outbound container spot rates fell approximately 45% by April 2 but have stabilized since then, aided by carriers blanking sailings [3][92] Travel: Uncertainty on demand outlook - The report highlights uncertainty regarding future demand in the travel sector, although specific data is not provided [6] Airlines - No specific insights provided in the summary regarding airlines [6] Airports: Spain slowing, Zurich and Paris incrementally better - The report notes varying performance across European airports, with some showing improvement while others are slowing [6] Roads: Europe road traffic growing - European road traffic is reported to be growing, indicating a potential increase in logistics activity [6] Commodities Shipping - No specific insights provided in the summary regarding commodities shipping [6] Stable Markets, Supported by Low Capacity Growth - The report suggests that stable markets are being supported by low capacity growth, although specific data is not provided [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record revenues of $17.7 billion and EPS of $2.60, with a return on tangible equity (ROTCE) of 23% [5][16]. - The efficiency ratio for the first quarter was 68%, despite incurring $144 million in severance charges related to performance management [17][18]. - The common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio stood at 15.3%, indicating a strong capital position [6][43]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Institutional Securities achieved record revenues of $9 billion, up 28% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in equity and fixed income [18][19]. - Wealth Management generated revenues of $7.3 billion, with a reported margin of 27% and $94 billion in net new assets [29][30]. - Investment Management reported revenues of $1.6 billion, a 16% increase year-over-year, with total assets under management (AUM) ending at $1.6 trillion [39]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted increased volatility in stock, bond, and currency markets, with a heightened risk of recession but a consensus leaning towards softer growth rather than negative [9][11]. - Client activity remained strong across various regions, particularly in Asia, where Institutional Securities revenues were up 35% year-over-year [77][78]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasized a strategy focused on raising, managing, and allocating capital for clients, with a commitment to long-term growth despite near-term uncertainties [14][15]. - The management highlighted the importance of maintaining a strong global presence and adapting to changing market dynamics, particularly in Asia and Europe [79][82]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding the economic outlook, noting that while some clients are pausing strategic activities, others continue to engage actively [92][95]. - The company is preparing for potential regulatory reforms, particularly regarding the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), which could provide additional opportunities for capital deployment [99][100]. Other Important Information - The company repurchased $1 billion of common stock during the quarter, reflecting its commitment to returning capital to shareholders [42]. - The firm experienced strong demand for strategic advice and capital raising, despite some disruptions in near-term deal activity due to market volatility [23][24]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Equities trading outlook - Management noted that client activity across all products and regions was strong, and while a weaker economy could impact trading, current engagement levels remain high [51][55]. Question: M&A outlook - Management highlighted encouraging trends in M&A activity, with year-over-year growth across all client segments, despite some market deterioration [58][60]. Question: Risk management in trading - Management indicated that client engagement remains strong, and while there is natural volatility, the market-making function continues to perform well [72][74]. Question: International business prospects - Management expressed bullish sentiments regarding the international business, particularly in Asia, emphasizing the importance of local engagement and partnerships [77][81]. Question: Impact of SLR changes - Management discussed the potential impact of SLR reforms on capital deployment, emphasizing the need for a holistic view of regulatory changes [99][100]. Question: Advisor business trends - Management reported strong interest in the advisor platform, with increased recruitment and retention trends, particularly in the self-directed and advisor-led channels [108][110].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economists initially predicted a 65% chance of a recession within the next 12 months due to new U.S. tariffs, but retracted this forecast shortly after President Trump announced a pause on reciprocal tariffs [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Predictions - Goldman Sachs issued a note predicting a 65% chance of recession due to tariffs that took effect on April 8 [2]. - The prediction was made shortly before 1 p.m. in New York, and the retraction occurred at 2:10 p.m. after Trump's announcement [2][3]. Group 2: Trade Policy Developments - President Trump announced a pause on tariffs imposed on countries other than China, while increasing tariffs on China by 125% [3][4]. - The pause on tariffs is set for 90 days, with a substantially lowered reciprocal tariff of 10% during this period [4]. Group 3: Corporate Strategy Implications - CFOs are urged to "rightsize" operations and adapt new import or manufacturing strategies amid evolving trade policies [5]. - The complexity of global trade is pushing CFOs to take on roles beyond traditional finance, focusing on global supply chain strategy [5].