The outlook for trade policy remains in flux to start the week, as the European Union and Mexico become the latest to face new, higher tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump. https://t.co/dOeLDbzYQg ...

Trade and Tariffs - Potential new tariffs on the EU and Mexico starting August 1st are being considered, primarily as a negotiating tactic to achieve broader policy goals beyond just trade [1][5] - The market impact of these potential tariffs on European markets has been limited, possibly because investors view them as temporary threats [3] - The shift from free trade to "friend trade" reflects a broader strategy of prioritizing close relationships in global trade [2] Earnings and Market Outlook - Earnings season is approaching, with a positive outlook expected later in the year, potentially boosted by a 10%+ move in the dollar [7] - AI is expected to drive cost reduction and margin improvement for smaller companies, potentially starting next year [8][11] - Tech and communication services are driving most of the earnings growth; without them, overall earnings growth would be negative [9] Investment Opportunities - Smaller value companies outside the Mag 7, trading at 13-14 times earnings, may benefit from AI adoption [11] - In Europe, investment opportunities exist in defense and infrastructure sectors due to increased spending [13][14] - In Asia, tech-oriented markets are preferred over goods-dependent markets due to potential tariff impacts [16][17] Market Valuation - The Mag 7 stocks are trading at approximately 31 times forward earnings, while the rest of the market is just under 21 times [9] - The earnings growth spread between the Mag 7 and the rest of the market is compressing, suggesting potential outperformance of smaller caps [10][11]

The big-bank earnings reports due this week mark the quasi-official start to the second-quarter earnings season. Analysts expect growth, but they’re also eyeing the effects of tariffs as President Donald Trump’s trade policy continues to evolve. https://t.co/8UsIstnwYB ...

Here in studio with me, NBC business and data correspondent Brian Chung and Ron Insano, CNBC senior analyst and commentator. So, let me read to you something from the New York Times. Ron, Mr.. Trump's efforts to use tariffs to intervene in a criminal trial in a foreign nation is an extraordinary example of how he views levies as a onesizefitsall cudgel. What is the message in that to other countries, to even the US about our trade policy. Well, there as far as we know, there's no statutory authority for the ...

US President Donald Trump has shifted his tariff deadline to August 1st, but Asia's export dependent economies are seeing little reprieve. In his first wave of letters, Trump hit Japan and South Korea with rates of 25%. And in Southeast Asia, the rates range from 25% for Malaysia to as high as 40% for smaller economies such as Laos and Myanmar.They're now left with about 3 weeks to negotiate lower rates before they come into effect. Trump has signaled he's open to negotiations. If they call with a different ...

Forecasters anticipate a monthly report on US employment will show slower hiring and the highest unemployment rate since 2021 as the Trump administration’s trade and immigration policy shifts start to leave an imprint https://t.co/bWU5uDfHjD ...

US Economic Weekly Economics - North America Waiting game Research Analysts North America Economics David Seif - NSI david.seif@nomura.com +1 212 667 9180 Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com +1 212 667 9347 Jeremy Schwartz - NSI jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com +1 212 667 9637 June FOMC meeting – hawkish on net The June FOMC meeting was hawkish on net. The 2025 median rate projection was left unchanqed at two cuts, but the committee was highly divided with 10 participants expectinq 2 or 3 rate cuts this ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the implications of U.S. trade policy, particularly focusing on tariffs and their impact on the global economy and U.S. businesses. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Legal Rulings on Tariffs**: The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that President Trump's tariffs were imposed unlawfully, indicating that he overstepped his authority. This ruling has significant implications for U.S. trade policy and could lead to a reduction in tariffs [61][8][19]. 2. **Impact on Global Economy**: The uncertainty surrounding the future of tariffs is causing chaos in the global trading system, affecting U.S. consumers and businesses who may face higher prices if tariffs remain in place [7][6][19]. 3. **Political Ramifications**: The Trump administration's aggressive tariff strategy is being challenged legally, and the outcome of these legal battles could reshape U.S. trade relations, particularly with China and other trading partners [20][22][64]. 4. **Trade War with China**: The administration's actions to decouple from China, including revoking visas for Chinese students and suspending sales of critical technologies, reflect a broader strategy to reduce dependency on China [22][64]. 5. **Geopolitical Consequences**: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the U.S. response, including potential sanctions against Russia, are influencing U.S. trade policy and relationships with European allies [13][10]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Public Sentiment**: The legal challenges to tariffs and the administration's trade policies are causing public concern, particularly among consumers who may face increased costs [7][19]. 2. **Future of Trade Policy**: The administration's next steps regarding tariffs and trade relations will be critical in determining the future landscape of U.S. trade policy and its economic implications [19][20]. 3. **Judicial Influence**: The ongoing legal battles over tariffs may eventually reach the Supreme Court, which could set a precedent for future executive actions regarding trade [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and implications surrounding U.S. trade policy as presented in the conference call, highlighting the legal, economic, and geopolitical dimensions of the current situation.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Global Macro Outlook**, focusing on **US Rates**, **International Rates**, **Commodities**, **Currencies**, and **Emerging Markets** [3][4][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments US Rates - **Treasury Yield Forecast**: The forecast for 10-year Treasury yields has been revised upward to **4.35%** by year-end, from **4.00%** previously. The 2-year Treasury yield is now expected to end the year at **3.50%**, up from **3.10%** [7][15]. - **Impact of Fiscal Policy**: The budget reconciliation bill could raise the primary deficit by **$150 billion** from FY25-26, which is **0.4% of GDP**. This could be offset by an estimated **$100 billion to $200 billion** in tariff revenue [31][32]. International Rates - **European Rates**: The recommendation is to stay **overweight (OW)** on European rates despite ongoing challenges [45]. Commodities - **Oil Demand**: Global oil demand has softened, primarily due to a decline in US oil consumption. As of May 20, demand increased by **340,000 barrels per day (kbd)** but remains nearly **300 kbd** below projections [92]. - **Price Forecasts**: Price forecasts for natural gas in Northwest Europe have been lowered to **35 EUR/MWh** for 2Q25 and 3Q25, down from **40/45 EUR/MWh** [7][97]. Copper prices are expected to average **$9,225/mt** over 2H25, while aluminum prices are forecasted at **$2,325/mt** [100]. Currencies - **Weaker Dollar Strategy**: The strategic call remains for a weaker dollar following the US-China tariff de-escalation. The dollar's performance is expected to be influenced by data rather than policy [5][69][72]. - **USD/CNY Forecast**: The forecast for USD/CNY has been adjusted downward, with expectations of **7.20** in 2Q and **7.30** in 4Q [89]. Emerging Markets - **Sovereign and Corporate Ratings**: The recommendation is to stay **underweight (UW)** on EM sovereigns while moving EM corporates to **market weight (MW)** due to tariff reprieve [8][45]. Other Important Insights - **Market Positioning**: Investor positioning in the Treasury market is no longer as stretched to the long side, indicating that active investors have more scope to add duration [26]. - **Foreign Holdings**: Foreign investors own approximately **30%** of the Treasury market, predominantly in short-dated securities [37][40]. - **Moody's Downgrade Impact**: Following Moody's downgrade of US debt, risks are skewed towards a bearish steepening in the near term, with expectations of higher interest expenses [32][36]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape, commodity forecasts, currency strategies, and emerging market dynamics.

Group 1 - The current operating environment is experiencing significant disruption due to changes in U.S. policy, particularly under the Trump administration [3] - The trade policy has shifted from a maximalist approach to a more manageable framework, although higher tariff levels remain [3] - The transition from a maximalist to a more manageable trade policy is expected to involve volatility, including individual tweets on tariffs and potential legal challenges [3]