Monetary Policy Stance - The speaker believes that cutting rates is still necessary, but caution is warranted due to conflicting signals from the labor market and GDP growth [1] - The market has already priced in sequential rate cuts through the end of the year, which the speaker considers cautious enough if implemented in quarter-point increments [3] - A more aggressive rate cut, such as 75 basis points, carries a higher risk if the economic outlook is misjudged [4] - Gradual adjustments of 25 basis points allow for flexibility as new data becomes available [4] Economic Indicators - The labor market is weak, but GDP growth is strong, with forecasts near 4% [1] - Negative job growth is inconsistent with 4% GDP growth, suggesting an imbalance that needs to be resolved [1] - The labor market and GDP growth must align, either through a labor market rebound or a GDP growth slowdown [2] Policy Implications - If the labor market rebounds and growth remains strong, there is less need for rate cuts [2] - If GDP growth slows down, the labor market situation necessitates further rate cuts [2] - Policy decisions should be made cautiously to avoid significant errors in either direction [3]

🇺🇸 TODAY: Fed Chair Powell speaks at 8:30 AM ET at the Community Bank Conference.Will he mention rate cuts? https://t.co/SAburEeSdp ...

Well, with us now is Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager at Niles Investment Management. Dan, it's great to have you on the show. Welcome.Thank you. We'll start right there. What do you think of this.Well, you have to separate it into pieces. So, if you're asking, what do I think about the stocks of the AI companies. I think they're going to go up a lot for one simple reason.The Fed's cutting rates after being on hold for 9 months. You're going to get another probably three cuts between now and January ...

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 Fed Governor Stephen Miran calls for aggressive rate cuts of up to 50bps. https://t.co/U0pW5hYLrq ...

REMINDER:Fed's Bowman says he sees 3 rate cuts in 2025!BULLISH FOR MARKETS! https://t.co/fNxUNPrpic ...

Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee suggests officials should proceed carefully with rate cuts [1] - The Federal Reserve faces pressure regarding both inflation and employment goals [1]

💥BREAKING:Fed's Bowman says he sees 3 rate cuts in 2025!THIS IS BULLISH. https://t.co/Z3u4FM6toi ...

Monetary Policy - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will approach additional rate cuts very cautiously [1] - Inflation risks remain more prominent than the threat of higher unemployment [1]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Fed's excessive reliance on data dependence should be reduced, as the accumulated data for the last three to four months speaks volumes [2] - The Fed needs to move from a restrictive stance to neutral with dispatch, likely involving 25 basis point cuts at the next three to four meetings [3] - These cuts would bring the policy rate to a 3%-35% zone, considered neutral and consistent with the yield curve [3] - The current yield curve is not validated by the policy rate, and the Fed's actions will clear the path for normalization [4] Fed Internal Dynamics - There is genuine disagreement within the FOMC about the terminal rate, with some members not wanting it to be below 3%-35% [7] - Despite disagreements, there is a widespread consensus on the committee to move to neutral [8] - The Fed is likely to implement a steady march of 25 basis point cuts without explicitly promising to do so [8] Economic Impact - The absence of data in the short run due to the shutdown may reduce the Fed's data dependence [2] - The Fed's risk management assessment has tilted towards supporting the labor market [5]

BoE’s Catherine Mann says sticky inflation is materializing but doesn’t rule out more rate cuts https://t.co/ZiaK3dL7oi ...