Core Viewpoint - Consumer staple companies may benefit from higher inflation due to their ability to pass on cost increases to customers, but consumer resistance to price hikes is a concern [2]. Group 1: PepsiCo - PepsiCo's second-quarter revenue increased by 2%, driven entirely by higher prices, which contributed 4 percentage points, while lower volume subtracted about 1.5 percentage points [5]. - Adjusted operating income for PepsiCo fell by 3%, indicating that price hikes were insufficient to offset rising costs [5]. - PepsiCo's share price dropped by 16.9% over the past year, contrasting with a 16.8% gain in the S&P 500 index during the same period [6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for PepsiCo increased from 19 to 26, which is still lower than the S&P 500's P/E of 30, suggesting potential for patient investors [7]. Group 2: Procter & Gamble - Procter & Gamble's fiscal third-quarter adjusted sales grew by only 1%, with higher prices accounting for the entire increase and volumes remaining flat [9]. - In the fourth quarter, adjusted sales increased by 2%, with higher prices and mix each contributing 1 percentage point, while volume remained constant [10]. - Procter & Gamble's stock price decreased by 7.9% over the past year, and its P/E multiple contracted from 28 to less than 25 [10].

U.S. inflation falls to 1.67% as the labor market deteriorates.Powell has no way out.Rate cuts are coming. 🚀 https://t.co/zst2u93min ...

It is day 194 of the second Trump administration and it was not a good day for the Trump economy. On Wall Street, the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ all lost more than a full percentage point. The selloff comes after Trump rolled out a list of new tariff rates on countries that haven't reached trade deals with the US.Those new rates take effect one week from today. But the big headline, the real story was the labor market. Economists were set to see a weak July jobs report today, but it was even worse than expected.I ...

House Republicans got sent home early, so they're back in their districts for summer recess. Take a look at how the crowd responded to Republican Congressman Brian Style during a town hall in Wisconsin just last night. >> I am so disappointed in how you represent us.Southeast Wisconsin has not been represented by you. President Trump seems to run Southeast Wisconsin. What I see happening to our immigrant population embarrasses me and you have not raised a voice to complain about it.Where do I see your leade ...

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the macroverse. Today we're going to talk about the recent labor market reports this week and how it is affecting markets. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. If you're curious about this stuff uh more timely, we do have the ITC macro Twitter account that you can follow along with. I'll also tweet stuff out from m ...

Anyone with half a brain knew the BLS data was wrong for years.Bitcoiners have been calling attention to how inaccurate the CPI metric has been.Gold is outperforming the stock market in the last decade and you think inflation was only 2% per year?! ...

Investment Strategy - Forests are presented as a potential hedge against inflation [1] Asset Class - Forests are highlighted as an alternative asset class [1]

Economic Outlook - The employment report is weaker than expected due to downward revisions, raising recession fears, but the analysis suggests a "rolling recession" [2] - The expectation is for a strong recovery, possibly starting as a "rolling recovery", with upside surprises in real growth and productivity, and downside surprises on inflation by the midterm elections next year [5][6] - Geopolitical risks remain, particularly concerning Russia-Ukraine, China, and Mexico, but the biggest uncertainty is the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy [7][8] Fiscal Policy - Year-to-date deficit as a percentage of GDP has shrunk from approximately 73% to 62% [10] - Tariffs are annualizing at an estimated $450 billion per year, potentially leading to a deficit of roughly 47% of GDP [10] - The analysis suggests that the deficit as a percentage of GDP could reach 3% by the end of 2026, two years ahead of the Treasury Secretary's objective [11][12] - Approximately 75% of capital spending will benefit from permanent expensing, which is expected to attract manufacturing back to the United States and boost productivity [18] - Factoring in expensing, the US corporate tax rate could effectively drop to the 12-14% range [19] Monetary Policy - Despite Chairman Powell's hawkish tone, the data suggests the Fed may ease, with odds for a rate cut in September up to 88% and a 50 basis point rate cut at approximately 25% [4] - Real private domestic final sales are growing at approximately 1%, indicating cautious consumer behavior and a rising savings rate, potentially crossing 5% this year [21][22] - The 2-year Treasury yield less the 3-month Treasury yield is below zero, indicating restrictive monetary policy, which historically precedes recessions [26] - Truflation, which measures thousands of items in real time, suggests that inflation may stabilize and then decline towards or below 2% [33][24] Market Indicators - Economic policy uncertainty reached unprecedented levels during tariff turmoil, even higher than during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [36] - Revisions to non-farm payrolls were extreme, typically seen only in recessions, confirming the "rolling recession" [47] - Federal government employees are down by 84000 year-to-date, with an expected additional 150000 layoffs by the end of September, potentially impacting consumer confidence [48][49] - The consumer confidence index shows a decline in jobs being easy to get, suggesting potential economic weakness [51][52]

Labor Market & Economy - The labor market shows signs of weakening, with the prime age employment rate (25-54 years old) down approximately 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous year, which is atypical for a strong economy [2] - College unemployment rates are increasing, suggesting that rationalizations of the jobs data, such as attributing it to immigration, may be flawed [3] - Real personal consumption has decreased in the first six months of the year, a fact that is not widely recognized [6] Consumer Spending & Housing - The housing sector is experiencing a recession, indicated by a sharp decline in single-family permits [6] - Consumers are financially vulnerable, with real spending declining, including a notable weakening in services [6][7] - Consumers may lack the capacity to absorb higher prices, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts [5] Monetary Policy & Inflation - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging situation as inflation numbers might worsen during the summer [4] - Nominal incomes are slowing, providing a solid basis for policymakers like Governor Waller [4] - Broad capital expenditure (capex) outside of AI technology is expected to be sluggish due to companies' less optimistic outlook [7]

Wage Growth vs Inflation - Wage growth for many Americans lags behind inflation [1] - Low- and middle-paying job holders are experiencing the most financial strain [1]