"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money."- Milton Friedman https://t.co/kdL5S7FCEZ ...

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The US Treasury building in Washington, DC. Treasury yields climbed this week as traders scaled back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December following hawkish signals from Chair Jerome Powell and signs of resilience in the US economy. Most Read from Bloomberg The yield on 10-year notes closed around 4.09% on Friday after starting the week below 4%. The move reflects a shift in market sentiment with interest-rate swap contracts tied to the Fed’s December meeting now implying roughly even o ...

Core Insights - The dollar index rose by +0.27%, reaching a 2.75-month high, supported by hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve presidents and stronger-than-expected economic data [1][3] - The ongoing US government shutdown poses a risk to the economy, potentially leading to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve if prolonged [2] - The markets are currently pricing in a 63% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in December, with an overall expectation of an 82 basis point cut by the end of 2026 [3] Economic Indicators - The October MNI Chicago PMI increased by +3.2 to 43.8, surpassing expectations of 42.3, indicating stronger economic momentum [3] - Eurozone economic indicators showed improvement, with the October core CPI and German September retail sales rising more than anticipated, providing support for the euro [4] Federal Reserve Commentary - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid opposed the recent rate cut, citing a balanced labor market and persistent inflation [3] - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan expressed skepticism about further rate cuts unless there is clear evidence of falling inflation or a cooling labor market [3] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack preferred to maintain current interest rates to help control inflation [3]

Key Points I Bonds sold from November 2025 through April 2026 will have a 4.03% yield. This consists of a 0.90% fixed rate plus a 3.12% inflation adjustment. I Bonds can protect you from inflation, but it's important to know the downsides. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › Series I Savings Bonds, better known as I Bonds, gained tremendous popularity in 2022 and 2023 as inflation soared to generationally high levels. If you aren't familiar, I Bonds are designed to help Am ...

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Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter percentage point, which was widely anticipated, but the meeting revealed a divided stance among members regarding future policy directions [4][5] - There were two dissenting votes: one member advocated for a half percentage point cut, while another opposed any rate cut, highlighting internal conflicts within the Fed [5] - Inflation remains a concern, hovering around 3%, above the Fed's target of 2%, while signs of economic slowdown, particularly in the labor market, are emerging [5][6] Amazon and Layoff Concerns - Amazon announced it would cut 14,000 corporate jobs, with reports suggesting this number could rise to 30,000, raising concerns about the overall economy [6] - The layoffs reflect both short-term economic uncertainty and long-term structural changes due to AI potentially replacing human jobs [10][12] Earnings Reports - Meta reported strong earnings but faced a $16 billion tax charge, leading to an 11% drop in stock price, raising investor concerns about increased spending, particularly in R&D, which grew 36% year-over-year [21][23] - In contrast, Alphabet (Google) saw a 2.5% increase in stock price post-earnings, attributed to greater investor confidence in its spending strategies compared to Meta [25][26] Apple and Caterpillar - Apple is in a wait-and-see position, with its stock remaining flat after earnings, as investors anticipate the impact of the upcoming holiday season and new iPhone rollout [28] - Caterpillar reported a 17% growth in its energy and transportation equipment sector, driven by demand for components used in AI data centers, leading to a 12% increase in stock price post-earnings [31][30] Upcoming Earnings and Economic Indicators - Palantir and AMD are set to report earnings next week, with Palantir being highlighted as a significant AI play [34] - The government shutdown has resulted in the absence of the traditional jobs report, creating uncertainty in economic indicators [35] NVIDIA Milestone - NVIDIA became the first company to reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion, achieving this milestone in just 110 days, indicating rapid growth in the tech sector [37][38]

Core Insights - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is expected to become more pronounced as the holiday shopping season approaches, despite a muted effect so far this year [1] - Economists believe that tariffs have contributed to elevated inflation measures, with Bank of America stating that tariffs have pushed consumer prices higher [2] - Bank of America estimates that tariffs will add approximately 0.5 percentage points to the core PCE inflation measure, raising the expected inflation rate to 2.9% in September [3] Tariff Impact on Inflation - Tariffs are expected to keep inflation measures elevated, preventing them from declining as they otherwise would [2] - The core PCE inflation rate has been above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% since March 2021, with recent estimates indicating a rate of 2.9% in August [3][4] - Two Federal Reserve officials expressed disagreement with the decision to lower the central bank's key interest rate, highlighting the importance of inflation metrics [4] Consumer Burden - Consumers are estimated to bear approximately 50%-70% of the total costs associated with tariffs, with businesses absorbing the remainder [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts may sustain elevated stock valuations, despite concerns about a stock market bubble driven by AI enthusiasm [1][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact on Markets - Lower interest rates encourage investors to shift from short-term assets to stocks, historically justifying higher stock valuations [2]. - The Fed's easing cycle typically does not burst bubbles; rather, bubbles tend to burst during tightening cycles [4]. - The Fed's current focus is on mitigating downside risks to the labor market and the broader economy rather than solely on asset prices [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - Investor skepticism is growing regarding AI spending, which could affect stock valuations despite lower interest rates [6]. - Any signs of rising inflation could negatively impact market sentiment, leading to adjustments in expectations about future rate cuts [7][8]. - Historical data indicates that 51% of significant corrections in the S&P 500 since 1965 were triggered by higher interest rates, with rising unemployment and external shocks also contributing factors [4].

Scary Inflation Measure Stories to Tell in the Dark https://t.co/r8qzBVDDZ0 ...