The annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security benefits is based on how inflation is running in the third quarter. The formula reflects monthly changes for July, August and September for the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers.Social Security benefits would increase beginning with December benefits, which are payable January 2026. Federal Supplement Security Income payments would increase for January but those payments would be made at the end of December.This year, th ...

Brand Association - Rolex invited Donald Trump to the U S Open final [1] Trade Relations - The event occurred despite Switzerland tariffs [1]

A new NBC News poll shows dwindling trust in President Trump's handling of pocketbook issues on Trump's handling of inflation and the cost of living. 39% of Americans approve, while 61% disapprove. 45% say inflation and the cost of living is the most important economic issue right now.And 59% disapprove of Trump's handling of trade and tariffs as the White House te's up a Supreme Court fight after an appeals court struck down Trump's tariffs. We would have to give a refund on about half the the tariffs, whi ...

Site Search Clear SEARCH Advanced Search Search Results Symbols No results found Private Companies No results found 0 Results No Results Found Authors No results found Sections No results found Columns No results found In an interview on NBC's "Meet the Press,†Bessent said he's confident that the tariffs will be upheld by the Supreme Court. But even if they're not, "there are numerous other avenues that we can take,†he told host Kristen Welker, though that would "diminish President Trump's negotiating posi ...

We've heard from a lot of different companies around the country. Nine Nike says the tariffs will cost the company around $1 billion this year. Black & Decker says 800 million.The big three automakers all say they've had to pay more than $2 billion in tariffs. The list goes on and on. Bottom line, do you acknowledge that these tariffs amount to attacks on the American people.Uh well, first of all, let let's back up because what we've seen, for instance, the Japanese automakers have said they're eating the t ...

Core Insights - The potential return to a high-tariff regime in the U.S. has sparked significant alarm among economists and financial experts, with dire predictions about its economic consequences [3][4]. - Despite initial fears, the actual negative impacts of the tariff policies have been mild or nonexistent so far, with various economic indicators showing resilience [4][38]. Inflation Impact - Initial assumptions suggested that tariffs would lead to higher inflation, but the reality is more complex, with tariffs likely causing a one-time price hike rather than ongoing inflation [6][7]. - Tariff revenues for 2026 are projected to be around $300-400 billion, representing only about 1% of total U.S. GDP, akin to a national sales tax increase [7]. - A study indicated that only 17% of the components in the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index are affected by tariffs, suggesting a limited overall impact on inflation [7][8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-over-year increase but remained below the two-year average, indicating stability in prices despite new tariffs [11][12]. Recession Concerns - Recession forecasts fluctuated significantly in the first half of the year, but by July, sentiment improved, with the S&P 500 achieving 32 new record highs since "Liberation Day" [15][19]. - GDP growth surged at a 3.3% annual pace in the second quarter, and consumer spending showed a year-over-year gain of 4.7%, indicating economic strength [15][17]. - Most economists surveyed have reduced their recession probability forecasts, with only 2 out of 52 seeing an increased risk [16][18]. Treasury Bond Market - Contrary to fears, the U.S. Treasury Bond market has remained stable, with the 10-year Treasury Bond yield lower than on "Liberation Day" and bond prices increasing by almost 6% since the beginning of the year [20][21]. - Investors have shown confidence in U.S. Treasury securities, even as public debt reached $30 trillion, with tariffs projected to generate approximately $3.3 trillion in revenue over the next decade [21]. Dollar Status - Predictions of a weakened dollar and loss of its reserve currency status have not materialized, with the dollar remaining dominant in international trade and finance [22][24]. - The Federal Reserve's report indicated that the dollar's share of international payments is about 50%, showing stability in its global position [25]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign ownership of U.S. Treasury bonds has increased since April, with foreign investors returning as significant buyers of U.S. assets [26]. - The trend of foreign investment in U.S. equities and Treasury bonds has intensified, countering initial fears of a mass exodus [26]. Global Trade Dynamics - Concerns about permanent damage to global trade networks due to tariffs have not been realized, with global trade growing by $300 billion in the first half of 2025 [28][29]. - U.S. trade volumes were higher in July than in any month in 2023 or 2024, indicating resilience in trade despite tariff implementations [29][30]. Supply Chain Stability - Initial fears of supply chain disruptions have not come to fruition, with container shipping costs falling and supply chain pressure levels returning to long-term averages [32][34]. - Companies have adapted to potential tariff impacts by improving supply chain management and resilience, mitigating risks associated with tariffs [34]. Corporate Profitability - Contrary to expectations of declining corporate profits due to tariffs, S&P 500 companies reported a 6.4% revenue increase and an 11.9% earnings growth in the second quarter [36][37]. - The majority of U.S. companies exceeded analysts' earnings estimates, indicating strong corporate performance despite tariff concerns [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that the short-term costs of tariffs are outweighed by long-term benefits to U.S. competitiveness, arguing for more time to assess the impact of President Trump's economic agenda [1][4]. Tariff Revenue - The U.S. collected over $31 billion in tariff revenues in August, marking the highest monthly total for 2025, with total tariff revenue for the year exceeding $183 billion [5]. - Bessent indicated that tariff revenue could be utilized to help reduce the national debt, which is currently at $37.4 trillion as of September 5 [5]. Economic Impact - Bessent stated that the Trump administration anticipates a "substantial acceleration" in economic activity in the fourth quarter, highlighting the need for time to build factories and create jobs [4]. - The administration is committed to maintaining global tariff rates, despite a recent appeals court ruling that the power to set tariffs lies with Congress [7][8].

♪♪ >>> THIS SUNDAY, TRADE TENSIONS. WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP'S TARIFFS HEADED TO THE SUPREME COURT, A NEW JOBS DATA FUELING DOUBT, WHAT'S NEXT FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY? >> IF YOU TOOK AWAY TARIFFS WE COULD END UP BEING A THIRD WORLD COUNTRY. >> I'LL TALK EXCLUSIVELY TO TREASURY SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT. PLUS FILE FIGHT. AS CONGRESS RETURNS PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TO RELEASE THE EPSTEIN FILES. >> THIS IS A DEMOCRAT HOAX THAT NEVER ENDS. >> JUST PASS THE VOTE. LISTEN TO US. THIS IS NOT A HOAX. I'L ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **US Economic Outlook** for 2025, focusing on growth, inflation, and fiscal policies. Core Economic Insights - **Real GDP Growth**: Projected to slow to **1.1% in 2025** and **1.3% in 2026**, with a significant decline from **3.2% in 2023** and **2.5% in 2024** [6][5][4] - **Inflation Trends**: PCE inflation is expected to be **3.0% in 2025** and **2.3% in 2026**, indicating persistent inflation above target levels [6][5] - **Labor Market Dynamics**: A two-speed labor market is anticipated, with restrictive immigration policies leading to slower labor force growth and a low unemployment rate of **4.4% in 2025** [6][5][4] Fiscal Policy Implications - **Tariffs Impact**: Effective tariff rates are estimated at **16%**, which are expected to remain stable, impacting consumption negatively, particularly for low-income consumers [10][20][6] - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed is expected to start cutting rates in **September 2025**, with a target range of **2.75-3.0%** by the end of 2026 [48][49] - **Fiscal Measures**: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act aims to reduce the deficit by **$508 billion** over ten years but will increase the deficit in **2026** due to frontloaded tax cuts [35][41] Consumption and Investment Trends - **Consumer Spending**: Real income growth is expected to slow, leading to a more significant decline in spending on goods compared to services due to high pass-through from tariffs [71][72] - **Business Investment**: Nonresidential fixed investment is projected to grow by **4.5% in 2025**, driven by strong demand for equipment, particularly related to AI [90][94] - **Residential Investment**: Expected to decline by **2.1% in 2025**, with affordability challenges continuing to suppress housing activity [105][102] Trade and Inventory Dynamics - **Trade Volatility**: Frontloading of imports has distorted trade data, with expectations for trade to contribute slightly to growth in the second half of 2026 [65][68] - **Container Volumes**: Shipping volumes have been volatile, with a notable decline in the share of imports from China due to tariff avoidance strategies [68][70] Additional Insights - **Immigration Policy Effects**: A significant slowdown in net immigration is expected, dropping from **3 million per year** in 2022-2024 to **300,000 this year** and **200,000 next** [26][32] - **Consumer Balance Sheets**: While delinquency rates are rising, overall consumer balance sheets remain strong, with assets significantly outweighing liabilities [85][88] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed in the conference call, highlighting the economic landscape and potential challenges ahead.

Joining me now is US Senator Amy Clolobachar, a Democrat of Minnesota. Senator Clolobachar, thank you for being with us. You just heard about >> again now. >> You just heard about the situation in Chicago and back in Washington DC.We're monitoring demonstrations against the federal crackdown there. What are your thoughts on the president's escalating targets of American cities, something he has now compared in his social media posts to waging war. >> It's unbelievable.I uh believe as someone who used to be ...