Economic Outlook - Deflation is impacting the US economy as anticipated [1] - Recent economic narratives may be inaccurate [1] - GDP is projected to increase, leading to higher asset prices [1] Deflationary Factors - Tariffs contribute to deflation [1] - Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a deflationary force [1] - Deportations exert deflationary pressure [1]

I published my analysis back in February explaining why tariffs were deflationary.People mocked and ridiculed me for it. They thought it was some political bias or I had gone crazy.Now the economic data confirms the analysis.Original piece:https://t.co/hlUrRcHv4H ...

and is now threatening to penalize EU tech companies in return. Ambassador Greer uh joins us this morning. Good morning to you, sir.Um where does this stand and and just so we understand the the various chess pieces here. Uh what kind of leverage do you think you have to actually affectuate this in the EU. >> Uh well, good morning.Good to be with you. There are a couple of things. You know, first of all, the EU itself knows that uh it lags on innovation.You know, we had the EU put out the Mario Draghy repor ...

Let's bring in our panel. Joining us now, Brookings Institution Economic Studies senior fellow Wendy Edelberg and American Institute for Economic Research Monetary Economics Managing Director Lydia Mashburn Newman. Welcome to you both.Uh Wendy, I mean, I know you haven't kind of been able to dig into the guts of this report, but it seems like a pretty benign reading. Uh how do you feel about it. Yeah, it's frustrating because they haven't even posted the information that I would need to to really um parse a ...

Inflation Trends and Tariff Effects - The year-over-year change in the prices of core goods is reported at 1.4%, indicating a modest inflationary effect, particularly influenced by tariffs [3] - The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is at 2.7% year-over-year, which is seen as a positive sign, although it is compared to higher inflation numbers from the previous year [4] - Tariffs are expected to continue impacting inflation through 2026 and possibly into 2027, as firms are still working through inventory hoarded before the tariffs were implemented [7] Labor Market and Economic Outlook - The labor market appears slightly soft, with monthly payroll employment gains around 20,000, which is below the estimated break-even point influenced by immigration [8] - There are expectations of lower interest rates alongside higher inflation, which may not align with market predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions [9]

Inflation came in ice cold compared to expectations.All the economists were wrong about tariffs. ...

Inflation eased its grip on the American consumer in November, with prices rising 2.7% from a year earlier, the Labor Department said in a Dec. 18 report. The annual inflation rate had crept as high as 3% in September. The slightly lower rate for November reflected smaller price increases for gasoline and new vehicles, among other items. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items and is watched closely by the Federal Reserve, came in at 2.6% in November – the lowest rate since 2021. ...

US prices rose 2.7% in the year to November, according to federal data released a day after Donald Trump claimed they were falling “very fast” on his watch.The latest consumer price index, released on Wednesday morning, was down from 3% in September, and short of economists’ expectations of about 3.1% for last month.It comes amid questions over the strength of the US economy. The longest US federal government shutdown in history halted collection of key data. There was no inflation report for October, and d ...

Economic Concerns & Impact - Voters are concerned about the impact of AI on jobs and jobs more broadly [2] - Inflation has significantly increased since 2020, impacting people's perception of prices even if inflation stabilizes [3] - Sustained strong economic growth with wages rising faster than inflation is needed to address the problem of perceived high prices [4] Healthcare Policy - The president touched on healthcare, alluding to ACA subsidies without directly addressing them [4] - Republicans lack a concrete plan to replace ACA subsidies, creating uncertainty about healthcare costs [6][7] - Republicans still don't have a real solution on healthcare [8] Corporate Perspective - The president still favors tariffs, creating uncertainty for companies [10] - Companies desire certainty on tariffs, national security, and AI regulation [10][11][12] - Emerging blockade in South America creates uncertainty on the national security front [11] Other Policy Areas - Housing is primarily a local issue with limited federal government influence [8] - Building more energy capacity requires presidential and congressional cooperation but will take time [8]

Economic Outlook & Inflation - Vanguard expects a mixed CPI picture with some components trending down, but pressures remain due to tariffs and food prices [2] - Tariffs and a less restrictive Fed than perceived could keep inflation above 2% [10] - The focus for 2026 is expected to shift from inflation to growth [11] Labor Market - The US labor market has effectively stalled and is in a holding pattern due to supply and demand factors [5][6] - Acceleration in retirements and slowed immigration have pushed down the break-even rate [7] - Job growth is strong in occupations with high AI exposure [7] - Younger worker job growth is at historical levels, contradicting some narratives [8] Investment & Growth - AI-related investment will be the ultimate factor influencing the US economy, particularly in the back half of the year, posing an upside risk [4][5] - Investment spending and business confidence will determine the risk to the economy in 2026 [9] - Higher productivity and innovation rates could lead to higher growth without higher rates, similar to the late 1990s [12][13] - A 4% 10-year Treasury yield is possible with stable inflation and a 2.5-3% GDP growth due to increased capacity, not just demand [13][14]