Core Viewpoint - The "Magnificent Seven" companies, including Alphabet, are experiencing a shift in performance, with Alphabet becoming undervalued compared to the S&P 500, raising questions about its growth potential and investment attractiveness [1][3][10]. Group 1: Company Performance - The Magnificent Seven have historically outperformed the S&P 500, but in 2025, companies like Apple and Alphabet are underperforming [2][3]. - Alphabet's forward P/E ratio is 17.4, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 21.8, indicating a discounted valuation despite its industry leadership [8][10]. - The small difference between Alphabet's forward and current P/E suggests lower near-term earnings growth expectations from investors [11]. Group 2: Revenue and Business Model - Alphabet generates most of its revenue from Google Services, particularly Google Search, which accounted for over $50 billion in revenue, representing 65.6% of total services revenue [12][13]. - The company's heavy reliance on Google Search raises concerns about its valuation, especially as competition from platforms like ChatGPT and TikTok increases [14][15]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Innovation - Alphabet is facing challenges to its search dominance but has made significant advancements in AI, particularly with the rebranding of its generative AI model to Gemini [15][16]. - The integration of Gemini across Alphabet's ecosystem could enhance growth, although competition has forced the company to innovate more rapidly [17]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Despite concerns about its market position, Alphabet's earnings are expected to grow steadily, supporting free cash flow generation and potential buybacks [18]. - The current valuation of Alphabet is considered too cheap to ignore, positioning it as a compelling buy for long-term investors [18].

Market Analysis - Bitcoin is trading at a 13% discount relative to its appreciation against the US dollar [1] - The value of Bitcoin is increasing faster than the value of the US dollar [1] Investment Implication - The analysis suggests a potential buying opportunity for Bitcoin [1]

Core Insights - Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) has a robust balance sheet with a cash balance of approximately $240 million at the end of Q1, enabling it to finance development projects effectively [1][7] - The company generated $40 million in cash flow during Q1 after accounting for sustaining capital and taxes, allowing it to fund key projects internally and reduce financing risk [2][7] - ARMN shares have increased by 96.9% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry, which rose by 52.9% [5][7] Financial Performance - ARMN's cash flow generation and cash reserves support ongoing projects such as Segovia mill expansion and Marmato Lower Mine construction [2][7] - The company is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 4.61, which is about 65% lower than the industry average of 13.19 [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a significant year-over-year earnings increase of 226.5% for 2025 and 80.6% for 2026, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [10]

Tarek Mansour, Kalshi co-founder and CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the company hitting $2 billion in valuation after its latest funding round, where the increased funding will be allocated towards, state of prediction markets, NYC mayoral race, and more. ...

i'm sharing the full message blurred in the quoted tweet since many keep askingit was posted earlier in a group chat in response to a comment about 'top blasting' USELESS and whether it has '$WIF-like potential'------i think for something that has run super hard (i.e. from $4m to $150m in ~2 weeks) there will be a cool down at some point before an eventual, more explosive leg upi mean for memecoins, especially one that has rallied with many being sidelined, it's generally bullish to shake off a bit of unbel ...

Core Insights - Rivian delivered 8,640 vehicles in Q1 2025, a decrease from 13,588 units in the same period last year, primarily due to high EDV deliveries in Q4 2024 [1][9] - The company produced 14,611 vehicles in Q1 2025, an increase from 13,980 vehicles in the same period last year, to compensate for an upcoming factory shutdown for R2 production [2][9] - Rivian revised its 2025 delivery guidance downward to 40,000-46,000 vehicles from an earlier forecast of 46,000-51,000 due to demand and policy uncertainties [4][9] Production and Deliveries - Rivian's production in Q1 2025 was higher than deliveries, with plans to sell excess inventory in upcoming quarters [2][9] - The average selling price of Rivian's vehicles was $88,500 in Q1 2025, which limits the addressable market in the current economic climate [4] Competitive Landscape - In Q1 2025, Tesla delivered 336,681 vehicles, a decline from 386,810 units in the previous year due to production pauses [5] - Lucid delivered 3,109 vehicles in Q1 2025, a 58.1% increase from the same period in 2024, and introduced the Lucid Gravity SUV [6] Valuation and Estimates - Rivian's shares have gained 3.8% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Automotive-Domestic industry, which declined by 13.8% [7] - Rivian is trading at a forward sales multiple of 2.42, lower than the industry's 2.78, indicating it may be undervalued [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rivian's EPS for 2025 has increased by 42 cents in the past 60 days [13]

Core Viewpoint - Carvana has experienced a significant turnaround, achieving record highs in key metrics after a challenging period in 2022, with a notable increase in stock price and operational efficiency [1][5][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Carvana's first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of $4.2 billion, a 38% increase year-over-year, and retail units sold reached 133,898, a 46% increase, both setting quarterly records [8]. - The company more than doubled its net income and adjusted EBITDA to $373 million and $488 million, respectively, while selling 14% more vehicles with 30% less inventory and 45% less advertising spend compared to previous highs [9]. - Carvana aims to sell 3 million vehicles annually with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.5% within five to ten years, requiring a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% to 40% [10][11]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - Carvana estimates it currently holds only 1% of the $1.2 trillion U.S. used-car market, indicating substantial growth potential [12]. - The company has a presence in over 300 markets, with 81% of the U.S. population within its delivery range, positioning it well for future expansion [12]. - Plans for a new auction and reconditioning "megasite" in Phoenix are expected to create approximately 200 jobs, indicating a ramp-up in operational capacity [13]. Group 3: Financial Health and Valuation - As of Q1 2025, Carvana had $5.3 billion in long-term debt, which remains a concern for its financial stability [14]. - The company trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 112, significantly higher than peers like CarMax, which has a P/E of 21, raising questions about its valuation [15]. - Analysts project a 206% increase in earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, reflecting high expectations that may not be sustainable [17].

Investment Ratings - CICC-H: Buy [1] - FUTU: Neutral [1] - Hundsun: Buy [1] - East Money: Sell [2] Core Insights - Broker and fintech stocks have shown strong performance since May, with average returns of +27% for brokers and +9% for fintech, compared to +8% and +3% for the H/A share index [1] - Positive changes in Average Daily Trading Volume (ADTV) and turnover rates, along with growth in the Hong Kong market, are expected to drive earnings improvement [1][4] - Earnings forecasts for CICC, Hundsun, FUTU, GFS, and CITICS have been revised upwards by an average of 7% for 2025 [1][31] Summary by Sections Stock Selection Preferences - Preference for brokers with greater exposure to the Hong Kong market, such as CICC-H, while maintaining a Neutral rating on FUTU due to limited excess earnings growth [2] - For fintech, Hundsun is preferred over East Money due to fundamental factors, including recovery in non-core revenue supported by investments [2][26] Market Trends and Revisions - ADTV and turnover rates have recovered since June, primarily due to the easing of tariff shocks [4][12] - Continued increase in ETF market share is expected to impact East Money's profitability negatively [26] Earnings Forecasts - CICC's net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 13%, reflecting anticipated growth in Hong Kong investment banking revenue [17][22] - FUTU's earnings forecast has been slightly raised by 1% for 2025, driven by reduced customer acquisition costs [21][22] - Hundsun's net profit forecast for 2025 has been increased by 13% due to higher investment income [31] Valuation and Price Targets - CICC-H has a target price of HK$ 17.58 based on a 10x 2026E P/E [36] - FUTU's target price is set at US$ 111.79 based on an 18x 2026E P/E [36] - Hundsun's target price is Rmb 32.04, reflecting its market presence and sustainable customer relationships [46]

Back. It's a question almost every investor is thinking about given the uncertainty in the markets. Are stocks overvalued at current levels or not.Well, who better than the so-called Dean evaluation to weigh in. Oswerin of NYU Stern School of Business joins us now. It's good to see you.What What would your answer be. Well, if you thought stocks were fairly valued at the start of the year, you got to think they're fairly valued still because you come through a trial by fire. And it's amazing to me that stock ...

Core Insights - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) shares have increased by 17.4% over the past year, slightly underperforming the Finance sector's growth of 18.2% and the industry growth of 17.5%, but outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite return of 9.5% [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $10.74 billion, with an average trading volume of 0.2 million shares over the last three months [4] Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinsale Capital's 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 10%, with revenues projected at $1.75 billion, reflecting a 10.2% improvement [5] - Earnings have grown by 44.3% over the past five years, surpassing the industry average of 20.8%, with a long-term earnings growth rate expected at 15%, compared to the industry average of 6.8% [6] Earnings Performance - Kinsale Capital has consistently surpassed earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 11.07% [7] Financial Metrics - The return on equity (ROE) for Kinsale Capital stands at 26.37%, significantly higher than the industry average of 7.8%, indicating efficient use of shareholders' funds [10] - The return on invested capital (ROIC) is reported at 22.7%, compared to the industry's 5.9%, reflecting effective capital utilization [11] Analyst Sentiment - Mixed analyst sentiment is observed, with six out of eight analysts raising estimates for 2025, while six out of seven have lowered estimates for 2026 over the past 60 days [12] Valuation - Kinsale Capital shares are currently trading at a price-to-book value of 6.79X, which is higher than the industry average of 1.55X, indicating a premium valuation [13] Price Target - The average price target for Kinsale Capital, based on short-term estimates from eight analysts, is $474.63 per share, suggesting a potential upside of 2.9% from the last closing price [14] Market Positioning - Kinsale Capital is well-positioned in the excess and surplus (E&S) market, benefiting from high retention rates and improved underwriting results compared to the broader P&C industry [16] - The company targets small to medium-sized accounts, which allows for better pricing and reduced competition, with management estimating low double-digit rate increases across its business [17] Operational Efficiency - Kinsale Capital's proprietary technology platform enhances operational efficiency and expense ratios, contributing to improved margins and lower loss ratios [18] - The company has maintained a free cash flow conversion rate exceeding 85% in recent quarters, reflecting stable earnings [19] Dividend and Share Repurchase - Kinsale Capital has a strong dividend history, with a seven-year CAGR of 12.1% from 2017 to 2024, and has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $100 million [21]