Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% in November year-over-year, slower than the previous increase of 3% and below economists' expectations of a 3.1% rise [1] - Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 2.6% over the same period, also below the previous pace of 3.1% [1] Group 2 - The release of the CPI data was delayed due to a government shutdown, which affected data collection and led to the cancellation of the October CPI report [2] - There are concerns among economists regarding the accuracy of the CPI report due to the disruptions caused by the government shutdown [2] Group 3 - Capital Economics noted that while the data might indicate a genuine reduction in inflationary pressures, the sudden change, especially in persistent service components like rent, is unusual outside of a recession [3] - The firm emphasized the need to wait for the December data to determine if the current figures represent a statistical anomaly or a true disinflation trend [3]

The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.09%.  The dollar recovered from early losses today and turned higher as Eurozone fiscal concerns weighed on EUR/USD.  The dollar also found some support today after US weekly jobless claims fell as expected.  The dollar initially moved lower today due to the weaker-than-expected US reports on the Nov CPI, and the Dec Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey, which may prompt the Fed to keep easing monetary policy.  Also, strength in stocks today has curbed liquidi ...

The market is going to fucking rip here sooner than later imo.CPI came in SO cool.Inflation concerns with rate cuts are out teh window.3-5 rate cuts next year seems like an inevitable situation.Risk On assets will be going much higher.Bottom is in across crypto imo.The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter):This is absolutely insane:Inflation in the US just unexpectedly posted one of the largest monthly declines since 2023.While a +10 basis point increase in inflation was expected, it actually FELL by -40 basis ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Middle Market Business Owners Survey Report by Capstone Partners reveals significant insights into the decision-making processes, growth strategies, and financial outlooks of U.S. middle market companies [1][3] Group 1: Economic Concerns and Business Adjustments - For the third consecutive year, 92.5% of CEOs identified inflation as their primary concern affecting company growth [7] - 39.7% of business owners have reduced company expenses in response to tariffs [7] - CEO perspectives on the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act are mixed, with 41.4% expecting no impact, 36.7% anticipating negative effects, and 21.9% viewing it positively [7] Group 2: Capital Markets and Growth Strategies - 57.4% of CEOs have engaged in at least one capital markets transaction in the past year to enhance growth and optimize capital structure [7] - Private equity interest in middle market businesses is rising, with 53.9% of business owners reporting contact from a PE firm in the last year [7] - Over half (55.9%) of business owners plan to implement growth strategies in the next 12 months, indicating a shift towards growth rather than just financial stability [7] Group 3: Performance Improvement and M&A Outlook - The need for performance improvement support among business owners has increased by 3.4% compared to the previous year, as they aim to maintain margins and improve operational efficiencies [7] - A record 75.8% of business owners are preparing for an exit, suggesting a potential surge in middle market M&A activity [7] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Revenue Projections - The percentage of CEOs with a very positive outlook on the U.S. economy has risen to 18.7% in 2025, marking the first increase in five years as clarity around interest rates and inflation improves [7] - Business owners anticipate continued revenue growth, with 26.9% projecting a 1-9% year-over-year increase and 27.2% expecting growth of 10-25% [7]

Dividend stamp and stock chart on financial report highlight high-yield energy, bank and grocery stocks under $20. Key Points Energy Transfer offers an 8%+ yield supported by fee-based cash flow and disciplined balance-sheet management. Huntington Bancshares combines earnings growth potential with a stable dividend and limited commercial real estate exposure. Albertsons trades at a valuation discount while offering defensive exposure to food, pharmacy, and digital sales. Interested in Albertsons Compa ...

Investors cheered the news that inflation dramatically slumped in November, but economists caution that this dip may not last. Thursday's CPI report was unusually noisy, due in large part to the fact that the BLS did not publish much of the October price data after staff were unable to collect and process information retroactively. The missing data included the headline and core monthly and annual percentage changes in the index, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions. After headline CPI readings incr ...

美国11月通胀数据明显低于市场预期。受此前政府长期停摆影响，美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，11 月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨2.7%，低于媒体调查中经济学家普遍预期的3.1%。数据出炉后，市场 对美联储在明年1月降息的预期略有升温。 由于政府停摆持续43天，美国劳工统计局(BLS)未能完整收集10月价格数据，导致10月CPI报告被取 消，11月报告中也未公布环比数据。BLS表示，价格数据无法追溯性补采，使得月度通胀变化出现断 档。剔除食品和能源价格后的核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，低于9月的3.0%，显示通胀压力进一步缓解。 金融市场对此迅速作出反应。三大指数走高；美债收益率下行，10年期美国国债收益率下跌2.2个基点 至4.13%；美元指数走弱，下跌约0.12%至98.25。 Spartan Capital Securities首席市场经济学家Peter Cardillo认为，核心通胀同比降至2.6%、整体通胀回落 至2.7%，对美联储和金融市场而言都是利好消息。如果这一趋势得以延续，将为货币政策转向更加宽 松铺平道路，甚至可能促成2026年第一季度内不止一次的降息。 TD Securities美国利率 ...

Economic Indicators - November's inflation rate was reported at 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1% [1] - The "Core" CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by only 2.6%, also below the predicted 3% [1] Market Reactions - Investors reacted positively to the inflation report, with the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) rising by 0.8% in premarket trading [2] - A cooler inflation report increases the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January, which is generally favorable for the stock market [4] Company Earnings - Micron (Nasdaq: MU) reported earnings of $4.78 per share for fiscal Q1 2026, exceeding expectations by 84 cents, with sales of $13.6 billion [5] - Micron's guidance for Q2 suggests earnings could reach $8.42 per share, significantly above the consensus forecast of $4.49, with projected sales of $18.7 billion [5] - Cintas (Nasdaq: CTAS) reported earnings of $1.21 per share for fiscal Q2, slightly beating revenue projections with sales of $2.8 billion [6] - Cintas forecasts full-year profit between $4.81 and $4.88 per share, although sales may be slightly lower than expected at around $11.1 billion [6]

Economic Overview - US stocks experienced a significant rise following a cooler-than-expected inflation report, with consumer prices increasing by 2.7% year-over-year, lower than the anticipated 3.1% [1][5] - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is viewed as a positive development for the market, which has been under pressure due to high valuations and concerns regarding the AI sector [4] Tech Sector Performance - The tech sector rebounded after a period of weakness, with chip stocks, particularly Micron Technology, seeing a notable increase of up to 14% following strong earnings and robust guidance [2][8] - Micron reported $13.6 billion in revenue, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $12.8 billion, and projected $18.7 billion in revenue for the current quarter, exceeding the $14.2 billion forecast by analysts [7][8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The combination of cooler inflation and a weaker job market has increased the likelihood of the Federal Reserve continuing its rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for a potential 25 basis point cut by March [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the latest CPI reading indicates the Fed may be ahead of its inflation targets for the upcoming year, supporting a narrative that job market risks are rising faster than inflation risks [6][7]

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are up by +9 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -3.7 bp to 4.116%. Mar T-notes climbed to a 1.5-week high today, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1.5-week low of 4.10%.Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.57%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.16%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 fell to a 3-week low and closed down -1.03%.The markets are discounting a 27% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 bp at the next ...