We've had the decision from the MPC to keep interest rates unchanged by a margin of 6 to 3, a bit closer than some had expected. Just take us through the thinking there. So we decided to hold rates at 4.25%.Today, we have been able to cut rates four times over the last year. But given the uncertainty facing the economy, we decided to hold at this event. And one of those uncertainties, of course, are the unfolding events in the Middle East and the impact that could have on the oil price.At what point would t ...

Stagflation is the combination of slow economic growth, high unemployment, and a high rate of inflation. https://t.co/3Zw5KSj7Vn ...

Market Vulnerability & Risks - Market is looking vulnerable due to elevated valuations and limited capacity to absorb uncertainty [1][2] - Multiple risks are on the horizon, including tariffs, fiscal uncertainty, and the debt ceiling [3] - Poor economic growth in May indicates a downtick in growth momentum [3] Geopolitical Impact & Oil Prices - Geopolitical situation creates suspense, but oil prices are not acting particularly alarmed, remaining below Friday's highs [4] - Markets have generally absorbed geopolitical uncertainty well in the past, including conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and between India and Pakistan [6] - Oil is considered the transmission mechanism for geopolitical issues to become broader macro problems [6] Treasury Yields & Economic Data - Inability of treasuries to spike higher despite geopolitical anxiety and weak economic data (missed retail sales, industrial production, and NHP housing survey) is notable [5] - Upward pressure on yields is attributed to fiscal imbalances and inflationary implications of tariffs [5] Labor Market & Fed Policy - Deteriorating jobless claims, especially continuing jobless claims, are a red flag indicating softness in the labor economy [7][8] - May data points to a downtick in growth momentum [7] - Fed is expected to maintain a relatively status quo outlook, seeing risks to both sides of its mandate [9] - The 2015 DO (likely referring to a member of the Federal Open Market Committee) potentially going from two to one (likely referring to a change in their dot plot projection) [10]

All right, the Fed's two-day policy meeting kicks off today. Senior economics reporter Steve Leeman joins us right now. He's got the CNBC latest Fed survey. Steve, what's it show? Well, Becky, despite and good morning. Despite improvement in the economic outlook, respondents to the Fed survey continue to forecast weaker growth and higher inflation than they did at the beginning of the year and still elevated tariff uncertainty. 100% say the Fed will keep rates unchanged at this meeting. Uh the recession pro ...

K. Thank you. That's NBC's Kier Simmons.You bet. Joining us now, Goldman Sachs of Vice Chairman Rob Kaplan, who is former Dallas Sed president. And you know what we're going to talk about.Obviously, we're CPI, PPI, things like that. Uh Rob, but uh at this point uh we have um uh obviously been sort of upended uh by what happened in the last 24 hours or so. Does it change anything for for as far as the Fed's calculus goes.Um I think the market reaction there's a market reaction obviously in oil. You see gold ...

Economists say that President Trump's big, beautiful tax bill comes with a $3 trillion price tag over the next few months. But the White House says the opposite is true. So here to break down the disconnect, we've got Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance, Ben Worshko.Ben, what have you been able to dig into with the details here. Yeah. Yeah, Brad.So this is a divide that we've seen between the White House and independent economist. Treasury Secretary Besson was on Capitol Hill yesterday and you saw th ...

Inflation data on the agenda today, this time at the producer level. May PPI is due in just over two hours time. For more insights on inflation in the economy ahead of the Fed's policy meeting next week, we want to bring in Ian Shepardson.He's chairman and editor and chief of Pantheon Macroeconomics. And Ian, the weaker than expected inflation numbers yesterday once again. Look, what what does this mean.that the tariffs are not going to be nearly as inflationary as people thought or there's a longer delay b ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on global economic growth, with a focus on the impact of tariffs and inflationary pressures, suggesting a potential slowdown in investment opportunities [15][22][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant global growth slowdown, particularly in the US, with GDP growth expected to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in 2025 and 2026, driven by tariff-induced inflation and restrictive immigration policies [16][22]. - In the Euro area, growth is projected to remain around 1.0%, with inflation expected to undershoot the ECB's target due to a decline in private consumption and exports [17][22]. - Japan's economy is expected to show resilience, but inflation is moderating as the yen appreciates, leading to a hold on policy rates by the BoJ [18][22]. - China is anticipated to experience the largest slowdown, with real growth in 2025 expected to be 0.5 percentage points lower than in 2024, influenced by modest fiscal expansion and tariff impacts [19][22]. - India is projected to be the fastest-growing economy, with growth supported by domestic demand and fiscal policy, despite external headwinds [19][22]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to slow significantly, with core PCE inflation peaking at 4.5% in Q3 2025, while growth stalls by late 2025 [16][22]. - The Fed is anticipated to maintain its policy rate throughout 2025, with potential easing starting in March 2026 [16][22]. Euro Area Economic Outlook - Growth is forecasted to be below potential, with the ECB expected to cut rates to 1.5% by December 2025 due to weak economic activity [17][22]. Asia Economic Outlook - Tariff uncertainty is expected to weigh on growth in Asia, particularly affecting capital expenditures [24][25]. - China's GDP deflator is projected to remain negative, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [56]. CEEMEA and LatAm Economic Outlook - The CEEMEA region may see growth acceleration despite global uncertainties, while Brazil and Argentina are expected to fare better than Mexico amid the global slowdown [21][26]. - Mexico is significantly impacted by elevated global uncertainty, while Chile and Colombia are affected to a lesser extent [26][22]. Global Strategy - The report emphasizes that US risky and risk-free assets are attractive compared to the rest of the world, with a recommendation to overweight US equities and core fixed income [29][22].

Tax & Healthcare Policy Revisions - Senate Republicans are expected to propose revisions to key tax and healthcare policies, aiming for completion by July 4th [1] - Revisions may include adjustments to Medicaid savings (slowing growth, not cuts), discussions on SALT (State and Local Tax) deductions, and the Inflation Reduction Act [4] Economic Growth & Tax Rates - Locking in lower tax rates permanently, including low corporate tax, is crucial for job creation and innovation [7] - Fully restoring key business provisions (expensing, R&D, interest deductibility) and making the small business Main Street tax deduction of 20% permanent are seen as pro-growth measures [7] Deficit & Revenue - Estimates suggest the bill could add $2.5 trillion (Congressional Budget Office estimate) to the US deficit over a decade [8][9] - Growth can significantly impact revenue, as seen in 2017 when lowering the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% resulted in higher revenue collection than projected [10] Tariff Policy & Trade - The speaker is generally not in favor of tariffs, except as a remedy for unfair trade practices, as they can drive up costs, slow the economy, and invite retaliation [14] - Anchoring crucial security-critical supply lines in the US and running them through reliable trading partners is important [15] - Canada and Mexico buy five times more "Made in America" products than China, highlighting the importance of positive trade relationships with these countries [17] Foreign Investment - Republicans generally believe in the growth and importance of foreign direct investment, which constitutes a sixth of the US economy [19] - A provision was added to deter OECD countries from implementing global minimum tax pillar 2, which could weaken US growth incentives and sovereignty over tax law [21]

Welcome to a new episode of the opening bid podcast. I'm Yahoo Finance executive editor Brian Sazi. Like I always say, this is a podcast will make you a smarter investor, period.And you're going to get smarter on all things uh economy here at this very pivotal moment for the US economy. Joining me now is Visa chief economist Wayne Best. Wayne, good to see you.It's been a while. Last time I saw you in our Yahoo headquarters in New York City, it came with a bunch of charts and tables. So, um, welcome back.App ...