晨会纪要（2025/07/03） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.03） 固定收益研究 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅上升——融资融券周报 行业研究 央行释放积极信号，中东局势出现缓和——金属行业周报 杭州机器人展成功举办，关注人形机器人量产节奏——机械设备行业 7 月投 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 收益率整体下行，高等级拉久期仍有空间——信用债 7 月投资策略展望 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 要 资策略展望 晨会纪要（2025/07/03） 固定收益研究 收益率整体下行，高等级拉久期仍有空间——信用债 7 月投资策略展望 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 6 月各期限发行指导利率多数下行，整体变化幅度为-16 BP 至 4 BP。6 月信用债发行规模环比增长，各品种 发行金额均环比增加；信用债净 ...

Group 1: Marine Economy Sector - The marine economy concept experienced a significant surge, with the sector index rising over 7%, reaching a historical high, and trading volume surpassing the previous day's total within the first hour of trading [2][7] - The fishing sector index soared nearly 12%, approaching its highest point of the year, with all stocks in the sector rising, except for one that increased by over 7% but did not hit the limit up [5] - Key stocks such as Deepwater Haina and Klete reached their respective limit up, with many others also showing strong gains, indicating robust investor interest in marine-related industries [2][5] Group 2: Policy Support and Development - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need for high-quality development of the marine economy, focusing on innovation, efficient collaboration, and industry upgrades [7] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing top-level design and increasing policy support to encourage social capital participation in marine economic development [7] - Recommendations were made to focus on investment opportunities in deep-sea material research, deep-sea equipment manufacturing, and deep-sea digital applications, reflecting a trend towards high-end, intelligent, and green development in the marine economy [7] Group 3: Hong Kong Biotechnology Sector - The Hong Kong biotechnology sector, particularly the leading pharmaceutical company, saw a dramatic increase, with stock prices soaring by over 239% at one point, marking an eight-year high [8][10] - The company announced a memorandum of understanding for a potential acquisition of a blockchain technology firm, aiming to diversify its business and explore new profit growth avenues [10] - Despite a previous announcement of expected losses of approximately HKD 550 million to 600 million due to significant impairment losses and interest expenses, the stock's performance indicates strong market interest and potential for recovery [11]

工程机械底部更新：国内景气度波动仅影响估值，非挖&出 口景气度向上释放业绩 20250701 摘要 挖掘机销量增速自 4 月起下滑，预计 6 月增速在正负 5%之间，但长期 来看，国内市场仍具上升空间，中大型挖掘机排产良好，开工率下降主 因地方政府资金问题。 工程机械板块全年业绩预期乐观，三一重工、徐工机械、中联重科、柳 工净利润预计分别为 85 亿、75 亿、48-50 亿、18-19 亿元，二季度同 比增速可观。 国内市场小型挖掘机占比高但盈利低，出口市场 1-5 月同比增长 8%- 9%支撑业绩，非挖产品如汽车起重机恢复明显，减轻国内业绩拖累。 工程机械板块估值回调至较低水平，三一重工、徐工机械、中联重科、 柳工市盈率分别为 17 倍、12 倍、12-13 倍、10-13 倍，现为较佳布局 时机。 未来几个月国内市场预计不会大幅下滑，恒力液压排产数据强劲，经销 商反馈下游需求未走弱，资金到位率是关键，下半年市场有望恢复增长。 Q&A 今年以来工程机械板块的表现如何？未来的趋势如何？ 今年以来，工程机械板块整体表现较为波动。1 月至 5 月，国内挖掘机销量同 比增速在 20%以上，其中小型挖掘机增速达到 ...

成书于南朝的《宋书·礼志》记载："记里车，未详所由来，亦高祖定三秦所获。制如指南，其上有鼓， 车行一里，（木）人辄击一槌。大驾卤簿，以次指南。"其中的"高祖"是指南朝刘宋的开国皇帝刘裕。 这里说的是记里鼓车用于皇帝出行仪仗（卤簿），形制与指南车相似，上面有鼓，每行进一里，就有木 人击鼓一次。至于记里鼓车发明于何时，史书无明确记载。由于刘裕平定长安在东晋，可推测记里鼓车 的发明不晚于东晋。成书于唐代的《晋书·舆服志》也记载了记里鼓车，这就进一步明确两晋已有记里 鼓车。除了《宋书》和《晋书》外，《南齐书》《隋书》《旧唐书》《新唐书》等史籍都有记里鼓车的 记载，内容大同小异。 今本崔豹的《古今注》还记载了一种升级版的记里鼓车，这种记里鼓车不仅每行进一里就有木人击一次 鼓，在行进十里时还另有木人击一次镯（古代军乐器，形似小钟），它的机械结构应当更加复杂。据 《宋史·舆服志》，宋代皇帝仪仗已经使用这种升级版的记里鼓车。 出租车是现代生活中常用的交通工具，主要通过记录行车里程计算费用，因此也被称作"计程车"。出租 车的计程器是近代的发明，而我国古代就已经有了自动记录行驶里程的机械装置，叫作"记里鼓车"，外 国有学者称之为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a specialized cumin harvesting machine in China significantly enhances the efficiency of cumin collection, addressing labor-intensive challenges and improving productivity in the cumin industry [3][4][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Cumin is a popular seasoning for grilled dishes and is primarily harvested in regions like Xinjiang and Gansu during its peak harvest season [1][2]. - The cultivation area for cumin in China has been expanding annually, but traditional manual harvesting methods are inefficient and costly, limiting industry growth [3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - A newly developed cumin harvesting machine has been tested, demonstrating high efficiency with a daily operational capacity of up to 100 acres and a fruit loss rate of no more than 2.5%, marking an efficiency increase of nearly 100 times compared to manual harvesting [4]. - The machine features innovative design elements tailored to the unique characteristics of cumin plants, such as low cutting capabilities and flexible conveying systems to minimize fruit loss [4]. Group 3: Future Developments - The current harvesting machine is designed for flat sowing methods, with ongoing research to develop machines suitable for intercropping methods, indicating a commitment to further technological advancements in the cumin harvesting process [5].

Core Viewpoint - The excavator industry serves as a key indicator for infrastructure construction and fixed asset investment in China, with recent data showing a continuous increase in the workload of construction machinery across multiple provinces, indicating ongoing progress in major projects such as roads and bridges [1]. Summary by Sections National Overview - In May, the national construction machinery operating rate was 47.34%, with the top ten provinces being Anhui, Beijing, Zhejiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Hainan, Hebei, Qinghai, Jiangxi, and Ningxia. Qinghai saw the highest month-on-month growth rate of 3.14% [2]. - Sixteen provinces experienced a month-on-month increase in workload, with eight provinces, including Heilongjiang, Qinghai, Jilin, Tibet, Beijing, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia, showing growth rates exceeding 10% [3]. Equipment Performance - The operating rate for road construction equipment was 29.83% in May, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.72% and a year-on-year increase of 1.87%. Notably, the operating rate of pavers increased by 4.22%, with a workload growth of 14.65% [4]. - The Northeast region led with an operating rate of 60.39%, showing a month-on-month increase of 17.01%. Excavation equipment in this region had an operating rate of 65.82%, the highest in the country [6]. Regional Highlights - The Northeast region's workload increased by 3.58% year-on-year, with significant month-on-month growth of 17.01%. The region's operating rates for various equipment types, including excavators and crawler cranes, were the highest nationally [6]. - The Western region's operating rate was 53.77%, ranking second nationally. Notably, the workload for crawler cranes in Ningxia surged by 249.03% year-on-year, indicating strong growth driven by favorable policies in infrastructure and international trade [7][8]. - The Eastern region's operating rate was 46.4%, with concrete equipment leading at an operating rate of 47.05%. Various concrete-related equipment also ranked first nationally in their respective categories [9].

Summary of Conference Call on Machinery Export Chain Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the machinery export chain industry, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations and global tariff negotiations [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **U.S. Economic Data**: Recent U.S. economic data, including GDP revisions and inflation rates, have created a stable outlook for the machinery export chain. The anticipated impact of tariffs has not yet materialized, contributing to a positive market sentiment [2][3]. - **Tariff Impact**: Companies are managing tariff pressures through overseas manufacturing and price increases. End customers are generally accepting of slight price hikes, indicating a resilient demand linked to U.S. home repair and renovation [1][6]. - **Optimism in Market**: The easing of U.S.-China relations and favorable global tariff negotiations have led to increased investor optimism, resulting in a rebound in stock prices for machinery export chain companies [2][4]. - **Performance Discrepancy**: Consumer goods have returned to pre-tariff highs due to stronger performance certainty, while machinery companies face uncertainties in profit margins and demand stability, particularly in the B2B sector [5]. - **Global Manufacturing Expansion**: The acceleration of global manufacturing capacity is expected to drive economic growth, with countries seeking to benefit from this trend, leading to increased wages and consumer demand locally [8]. - **Competitive Advantage of Giants Technology**: Giants Technology is positioned favorably due to its global production layout, particularly in low-cost regions like China and Southeast Asia, allowing it to mitigate risks associated with tariffs [7]. - **Emerging Market Dynamics**: Chinese products are seen as valuable tools for developing countries, with purchasing decisions based more on product value and cost-effectiveness rather than origin [10]. - **Future Growth Areas**: The machinery sector is expected to see growth in industrial control products, equipment components, and one-stop procurement models, with injection molding machines and forklifts showing the fastest response [11][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Opportunities**: Other companies worth monitoring include TaoTao, Yindu, Dingli, Quanfeng, Honghua Digital Technology, and Jack, each demonstrating unique strengths in navigating tariff challenges [9]. - **Long-term Global Positioning**: Chinese manufacturers are likely to become global leaders in various sectors, leveraging their competitive advantages in cost and product quality [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Yutong Heavy Industry is launching a new brand strategy focused on "new energy, efficiency, and intelligence" with the introduction of seven new energy operation equipment models across three categories: sanitation, mining trucks, and heavy machinery [1] Company Summary - Yutong Heavy Industry's pure electric mining truck series holds a leading market share in the domestic segment and is a significant growth driver, with exports to countries like Thailand, Chile, and Indonesia [2] - The company has a history of innovation in the operation equipment sector, having introduced the first new energy sanitation product in 2014, the first pure electric mining truck in 2018, and the first direct-drive rotary drilling rig in 2020 [2] - Yutong Heavy Industry aims to leverage its integrated electric vehicle platform and intelligent cloud service platform to drive the transition towards greener, more efficient, and intelligent operation methods [2][3] Industry Summary - The construction machinery and specialized operation equipment sector is undergoing a "green, low-carbon, and intelligent" revolution, driven by strong policy support for new energy equipment [2] - Data from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association indicates significant growth in new energy sanitation vehicles, with sales increasing by 74.6% to 4,837 units, electric mining trucks up by 178.9% to 848 units, and electric loaders rising by 207.7% to 10,904 units in the first five months of the year [2] - Industry experts highlight challenges in the supply chain, including high costs associated with the "three electrics" (battery, motor, and electronic control), and the mismatch between battery lifespan and machinery design lifespan [3]

近日，苏州朗高电机科技股份有限公司（以下简称"朗高科技"）完成新一轮战略融资，本轮融 资由国投招商领投，元禾重元、天凯汇朗、致道资本、创元创投、东吴创投等多家知名投资机 构跟投。此次融资将重点支持公司深化技术创新、加速产能扩张及全球化市场布局，进一步巩 固其在新能源商用车和工程机械驱动电机领域的领军地位。 本轮融资将重点投向三大方向： 1）研发创新：加速新能源汽车、智能工程机械等领域的电驱动系统技术突破； 2）产能提升：建设智能化生产基地，完善电机及控制器核心部件的产业化能力； 3）全球化布局：建立国际化的研发和营销网络，打造具有全球竞争力的技术平台。 随着电池成本持续下探和政策支持力度加大，商用车电动化正迎来爆发式增长。据行业预测， 2025年新能源商用车渗透率将突破20%，带动核心零部件市场超千亿规模。此次战略投资将 助力朗高科技把握历史性发展机遇，推动中国高端装备制造走向全球。 作为国家级专精特新"小巨人"企业、国家级博士后科研工作站，朗高科技自2006年成立以来 始终专注于永磁同步电机及控制技术的研发与产业化。公司构建了覆盖新能源商用车、工程机 械、风力发电、工业节能、现代农机等领域的多元化产品矩阵， ...

Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the global CNC stone processing machinery industry, focusing on market trends, competitive landscape, and future growth projections from 2020 to 2031 [1][3]. Industry Overview - The CNC stone processing machinery market is segmented by product type and application, with significant growth expected in both natural and artificial stone processing sectors [4][12]. - The overall market size is projected to increase significantly, with specific figures for 2020, 2024, and 2031 provided for various segments [12][18]. Market Share and Rankings - The report details the market share and rankings of major companies in the CNC stone processing machinery sector, highlighting the top players by sales volume and revenue from 2022 to 2025 [5][12]. - It includes a breakdown of the market concentration and competitive intensity, identifying the top five manufacturers and their respective market shares [5][13]. Supply and Demand Analysis - A thorough analysis of the supply and demand dynamics in the CNC stone processing machinery market is presented, including production capacity, output, and utilization rates from 2020 to 2031 [6][18]. - The report forecasts demand trends and production capabilities across major global regions, including North America, Europe, and China [6][18]. Regional Market Insights - The report provides detailed insights into the market size and growth rates for different regions, with specific focus on North America, Europe, China, Japan, Southeast Asia, and India [6][18]. - It highlights the expected sales revenue and market share for each region from 2020 to 2031, indicating significant growth opportunities in emerging markets [6][18]. Competitive Landscape - The report analyzes the competitive landscape of the CNC stone processing machinery industry, detailing the profiles of key manufacturers, their product specifications, and market applications [5][6]. - It includes recent developments and strategic initiatives undertaken by major players in the industry, providing insights into their market positioning and competitive strategies [5][6]. Product and Application Analysis - The report categorizes CNC stone processing machinery by product type and application, providing sales volume and revenue forecasts for each category from 2020 to 2031 [6][10]. - It emphasizes the growth potential in various applications, particularly in natural and artificial stone processing [10][12]. Industry Development Trends - The report outlines key trends driving the CNC stone processing machinery industry, including technological advancements and shifts in consumer preferences [10][18]. - It also discusses the regulatory environment and its impact on industry growth, particularly in the Chinese market [10][18].