Economic Indicators - Consumer price inflation for September and Consumer Sentiment for December will be released on Friday [1] - Delayed Personal Income and Outlays for September are expected to show a 0.4 percent increase [3] - Consumer Sentiment for December has a consensus estimate of 52.0, up from 51.0 in the prior month [3] - Factory Orders for October will also be released, with the previous month showing a 0.2 percent increase [3] - Consumer Credit for October is anticipated to increase by $9.4 billion, down from $13.1 billion in the prior month [4] Market Performance - As of 7.25 am ET, Dow futures gained 45.00 points, S&P 500 futures added 12.00 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 82.75 points [2] - Major U.S. averages finished mostly up on Thursday, with Nasdaq rising 51.04 points (0.2 percent) to 23,505.14 and S&P 500 inching up 7.40 points (0.1 percent) to 6,857.12 [2] - Asian stocks ended mixed, with China's Shanghai Composite index surging 0.70 percent to 3,902.81 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index up 0.58 percent at 26,085.08 [4][5] - European shares are trading positively, with the CAC 40 Index gaining 29.56 points (0.36 percent), the German DAX adding 154.34 points (0.65 percent), and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index up 23.29 points (0.41 percent) [6]

Five Below raised its profit outlook for the third time in its fiscal year, lifted by demand for budget-friendly trendy goods as US consumer sentiment wanes amid high prices and a weaker labor market https://t.co/gN6rGVWLMb ...

Hello everyone. Black Friday sales set new records this weekend. The US stock market can't stop going higher. Sentiment is in the toilet. And Professor Peter St. An is going to join us to break down what is really happening in the US economy. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano. Before we get into today's episode, I need your help. My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers. Right now, we're at 40,041 of you. I love that you're here, but we need more friends. And so, hit the subscribe button ...

Consumer Sentiment & Shopping Trends - 84% of consumers are skeptical about Black Friday pricing, believing it's inflated [2] - Over half of consumers plan to shop on Black Friday and Cyber Monday [2] - Among the 18-24 demographic, a key shopping group, this figure rises to 70% [2] - Consumers are focusing on finding deals on everyday items due to current economic conditions [3][4] - The "lipstick effect" is observed, with consumers seeking smaller, affordable luxuries [4] Retail & Payment Processing Insights - Lightseed's retail data is primarily from the US market [7] - Lightseed has observed strong performance in hospitality markets in Europe throughout the year [7] - Lightseed sees good same-store sales in bikes, sports, and outdoor apparel segments, indicating shopping activity among higher-income consumers [6]

Core Insights - Retailers are adapting to the affordability crisis this holiday season by adjusting pricing strategies and focusing on lower-priced items to attract consumers [1][3][7] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer sentiment has dropped to 51 points in November, marking the second-lowest score since 1952, indicating significant economic concerns [2] - The decline in sentiment is attributed to worries about jobs, affordability, and tariffs, leading consumers to prioritize value and essential spending [4] Retailer Strategies - Retailers are increasingly investing in lower-priced items and adjusting their product assortments to cater to budget-conscious consumers [3] - Target has lowered prices on thousands of everyday food and essential items to help families manage their budgets amid declining sales and profit guidance [4][5] Market Conditions - Companies like Home Depot and Lowe's are experiencing reduced demand for larger home improvement projects due to consumer uncertainty, while Sally Beauty Holdings reports shoppers are leaning towards value, especially among low-income consumers [6] - Retailers are ramping up promotional efforts to attract cautious consumers, emphasizing affordability and value in their marketing strategies [7]

Consumer Spending & Market Trends - Overall consumer spending declined, but high-end consumer spending remained resilient [3] - The top 40% of the company's customer base experienced double-digit per capita revenue growth in the last quarter [4] - Expectation of continued trend of buying high-end ready-to-wear and fine jewelry [5] - "Silent luxury" (high-end, logo-free products) has been popular, but there's a potential comeback of color and embellishment [7][8] E-commerce & Trade Landscape - Changes in policies for goods made in Europe, Asia (China, India) impacted consumer sentiment [9][10] - De Minimis was not a big threshold for the company's high-end business, as most shipments were over 800 USD [11] - Stability in stock markets, real estate, and commodities has driven positive consumer sentiment [11] Inventory & Supply Chain - Maintaining a balance between demand and inventory levels is crucial to avoid discounting in the luxury industry [12][13] - There was oversupply in 2023, but the industry has since improved calibration between supply and demand [13] - Full-price business has picked up tremendously over the last eight quarters, indicating healthy margins [13]

here with her top retail plays into year end is Bernstein's Anisha Sherman. Anisha, great to uh great to have you on. Before we get to some of your favorites, I wonder what you're hearing from some of the companies that are recently reporting the retail industry uh about the tone of spending, the the pace of discounting and things like that into the into the final four weeks here.>> Sure. Thanks for having me on. So, we are in the thick of retail earnings at the moment.We've had a lot of big prints. We've g ...

Retail Industry Overview - Retail earnings reports indicate that comparable store sales and traffic have exceeded expectations, with notable Q3 performance driven by pricing strategies [2][3] - Retailers across various segments have increased prices in response to tariffs, experiencing less price resistance than anticipated, which has positively impacted comparable sales [3] Consumer Sentiment and Guidance - Retailers targeting middle and lower-income consumers are cautious due to declining consumer sentiment, leading to conservative Q4 guidance [4] - There is a noticeable bifurcation in consumer sentiment between higher and lower-income groups, affecting retail strategies [7] Company-Specific Insights: Burlington Stores - Burlington is identified as the smallest and lowest quality player in the off-price retail sector, facing challenges compared to competitors like TJX and Ross Stores, which are more established [5] - Burlington's recent performance showed a modest increase in comparable sales (+1%), while competitors reported significantly higher growth (+6% to +7%) [6] Investment Outlook - The market is expected to favor companies perceived as safer investments amid consumer risk, particularly those catering to higher-income consumers, such as TJX [7][8] - TJX is viewed as a strong investment option due to its quality and resilience in the current market environment [6][8]

Core Insights - Consumer sentiment has significantly declined, reaching a record low of 51 in November, down from 53.6 in October, and down 29% year-over-year [4][5] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the economy's health has led investors to favor low-beta, defensive stocks, particularly in the consumer staples sector [1][2] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers reported a final reading of 51 for consumer sentiment in November, slightly up from a preliminary reading of 50.3 [4] - The decline in consumer sentiment is attributed to a slowing labor market and high inflation, which pressures consumer spending [6] - Long-term inflation expectations decreased from 3.9% in October to 3.4% in November [5] Investment Focus - In the current market environment, investors are advised to consider low-beta stocks with high dividend yields and favorable Zacks Ranks to mitigate market volatility [2][3] - Recommended stocks include: - **Entergy Corporation (ETR)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 6.9%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.63, and a dividend yield of 2.73% [9] - **CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (CNP)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 9.3%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.60, and a dividend yield of 2.22% [13] - **John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 18.1%, Zacks Rank 1, beta of 0.37, and a dividend yield of 1.28% [15] - **Universal Corporation (UVV)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 2.4%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.73, and a dividend yield of 6.19% [16]

Core Insights - Best Buy raised its profit and sales expectations ahead of the holiday shopping season due to a strong third quarter performance, with comparable-store sales increasing by 2.7%, marking the largest gain in four years [1] - The CEO emphasized the importance of offering a broad range of products across various price points to attract a diverse customer base, particularly lower-income shoppers [2] - Despite economic uncertainties and inflation, consumer spending remains resilient, with shoppers focusing on value rather than just the lowest prices [2][4] Company Performance - Best Buy's strong quarterly results indicate a positive trend, with sales driven by categories such as computing, gaming, and mobile phones [1] - The company has managed to absorb some inflationary pressures and has diversified its supply networks to mitigate the impact of tariffs, applying price increases to only a limited number of products [4] Consumer Behavior - The top 40% of U.S. consumers are responsible for two-thirds of overall consumption, while the remaining 60% are more cautious in their spending, focusing on essential purchases and seeking the best deals [5] - Shoppers are willing to spend on innovative products and replacements for older gadgets, indicating a willingness to invest when necessary [3][5] Economic Context - The retail environment is influenced by broader economic factors, including tariffs and consumer sentiment, which have been affected by recent government shutdowns and inflation [3][4] - Employment trends are being closely monitored, particularly for consumers living paycheck to paycheck, as this demographic's spending behavior is crucial for overall retail performance [6]