Joining us right now is Gabriella Santos. She is chief market strategist for the Americas at JP Morgan Asset Management. And uh Gabriella, why don't we just start with yesterday's new highs despite the government shutdown. We know that government shutdowns often don't uh affect the markets.In fact, you tend to see the markets trade up. Um but what what is happening. Is this a case where we're looking at this thinking this will be resolved quickly.Thinking it doesn't matter. what you're seeing from spending ...

But let's begin here. The markets and your money higher to begin the month. Happy October, by the way.So, what are some of the key issues to watch as we just kind of slide into the fourth quarter. Kate Morris is here. She is City Wealth's chief investment officer.Kate, it's great to have you on set. We're starting the fourth quarter. Markets have been hot this year.Don't seem to care about a looming government shutdown. Why not. >> Well, because it doesn't tend to last very long, right.We've had like 15 gov ...

Core Insights - Conagra Brands Inc. shares increased by approximately 2% following the release of first-quarter fiscal 2026 results that surpassed earnings expectations despite inflationary pressures and cautious consumer spending [1] Financial Performance - The company reported adjusted earnings of $0.39 per share for the quarter ending August 24, exceeding the analyst consensus of $0.33 [2] - Revenue for the quarter was $2.63 billion, slightly above estimates of $2.62 billion, but down 5.8% compared to the previous year; organic net sales decreased by 0.6% [2] Future Outlook - Conagra reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 outlook, projecting organic net sales growth between -1% and +1%, adjusted operating margin of 11.0% to 11.5%, and adjusted EPS between $1.70 and $1.85, aligning with the analyst consensus of $1.78 [3]

Valuation Metrics - Shiller's CAPE is currently at 40x, the highest level since the dot-com bubble, indicating a potentially expensive market [4] - Trailing P/E stands at about 28x, significantly above historical averages, calculated using earnings from the past 12 months [5] - Forward P/E is approximately 22x, also above historical averages, based on expected earnings over the next 12 months [6] - All valuation metrics suggest that the stock market is expensive, implying weak returns in the future [7] Historical Context - In mid-2014, Shiller's CAPE was about 26x, above its long-term average of 17x, suggesting the market was expensive [8] - The realized CAPE at that time was about 17x, indicating the market was not expensive due to healthy earnings growth in subsequent years [9] Macroeconomic Developments - Inflation is rising, with the core PCE price index up 2.9% year-over-year, above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [13] - Consumer spending increased by 0.3% month-over-month in August, reaching a record annual rate of $21.11 trillion [14] - Business investment activity improved, with core capex orders rising 0.6% to $76.7 billion in August [15] - Initial unemployment claims fell to 218,000, indicating a historically strong labor market [16] Housing Market Insights - Sales of previously owned homes decreased by 0.2% in August, while new home sales surged 20.5% to an annualized rate of 800,000 units [19][20] - The median existing-home sales price rose 2.0% year-over-year, marking the 26th consecutive month of price increases [20] Economic Outlook - The long-term outlook for the stock market remains favorable, supported by expectations for years of earnings growth [23] - Demand for goods and services remains positive, bolstered by healthy consumer and business balance sheets [24] - Economic growth is normalizing, with major tailwinds like excess job openings fading [25] - There is a disconnect between hard economic data and soft sentiment-oriented data, with tangible activity continuing to grow [26] Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market may outperform the economy in the near term due to positive operating leverage from companies adjusting cost structures [27] - Risks such as political uncertainty, geopolitical turmoil, and energy price volatility remain present [28]

Economic Measurement & Policy - Economic health is measured by consumer spending [1] - The Federal Reserve (the Fed) aims to ensure prices increase continuously [1] - The Fed is concerned that declines in house prices could accelerate [1] Keynesian Economics - The content reflects Keynesian economics in its most distilled form [1]

Economic Impact of Potential Shutdown - A short government shutdown (one to two weeks) is unlikely to have a significant macroeconomic or market impact [1] - A data blackout caused by a shutdown would be particularly problematic given the current inflection point in the labor market and the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision [3] - If the shutdown lasts longer than two weeks, it could become a real problem and investors will likely take notice [4] Labor Market Conditions - The labor market is currently weak, with little to no job growth in recent months [3][4] - Businesses have pulled back on hiring, reduced hours, and cut back on temporary jobs, but layoffs remain low [5] - The expectation is for a flat job market, and revisions may show a net loss of jobs [6] Consumer Spending and GDP - Second quarter GDP growth was 380% (原文应为3.8%，此处为笔误) and August personal spending was 6%, both better than expected [7] - Strong consumer spending is attributed to the wealth effect from the stock market, primarily benefiting high-income households [8] - The saving rate has declined, indicating that high-income consumers are spending more aggressively [9] Economic Vulnerabilities - The economy is vulnerable because almost half of all spending is done by the top 10% of the income distribution (making over approximately $275,000-$300,000 per year) [12][13] - If the stock market declines and people start seeing losses, the saving rate could increase, potentially leading to a recession given the lack of job growth [15] - Disturbing data on average FICO scores and collapses in auto subprime financing indicate potential pain for the lower income cohort [11]

Let's continue that conversation this morning with Dan Greenhouse, chief strategist, managing director at Solless Alternative Asset Management, who joins us here at Post9. Happy Friday, DG. Good to see you.So, this uh this week, has it been like a a healthy breather going into a ramp in the year end or is the rally as broad as you would have liked. >> No, the rally is not as broad as I would have liked. It's there's a lot of lowquality and uh bitcoin related names that that have led the way, but but also ho ...

Market Outlook - Market anticipates a rate cut in October, which is bullish for crypto due to increased liquidity and risk-on flows [2] Economic Indicators - Inflation is stable [3] - Tariffs are not causing an inflation shock [3] - Consumer spending is under control [3]

Core Insights - US personal spending increased in August, surpassing forecasts, indicating steady underlying inflationary pressures [1] - Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose by 0.4% for the second consecutive month, reflecting consumer resilience [1] - The core personal consumption index saw a 0.2% increase from July, suggesting persistent inflation trends [1] Economic Impact - The data is significant for the Federal Reserve as it assesses monetary policy in light of consumer spending trends [1] - The steady rise in personal spending may influence future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [1] - The overall economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic due to the sustained consumer spending levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite high tariffs, persistent inflation, and challenges in job searching, consumer spending in the U.S. has increased in August, contributing positively to the economy [1] Group 1 - Consumer spending has shown resilience, indicating that Americans are continuing to spend despite economic pressures [1] - The increase in spending is crucial for maintaining economic momentum in the U.S. [1]