Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and return [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, looking for those that have undergone recent sell-offs, especially when insiders are purchasing shares at lower prices [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who buy shares post-sell-off, adding a layer of due diligence to the investment process [1] Technical Analysis - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts, employing multicolor lines for clarity [1] - Trend lines are occasionally drawn in multicolor patterns to assist in visualizing price movements [1]

Core Insights - Warren Buffett's investment philosophy may apply to Rivian Automotive, suggesting it could be a long-term investment opportunity despite current challenges [1][5] Market Performance - Rivian's market cap has significantly decreased from over $150 billion at its IPO in 2021 to approximately $18 billion today [2][3] - The company's price-to-sales ratio is notably lower than competitors like Lucid Group and Tesla, reflecting a broader decline in EV stocks, excluding Tesla [3] Growth Potential - Rivian is expected to launch three new affordable models in 2026, which could enhance its growth potential and allow it to outpace competitors like Lucid and Tesla [4] - Historical context suggests that when Tesla introduced its affordable models, it experienced substantial growth, indicating a similar opportunity for Rivian [4] Investment Timing - Buffett's advice suggests that the current low valuation of Rivian may present an attractive entry point for contrarian investors, especially as the market sentiment shifts [4][5] - The lack of hype around Rivian compared to competitors may provide a unique opportunity for investors to capitalize on its potential recovery [5]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street analysts often adjust price targets based on stock momentum rather than true value, leading to less reliable targets during market downturns [1] Company Overview: Adobe Inc. - Adobe's current stock price is $358.40, with a price target of $433.41, indicating a potential upside of 20.59% [2][10] - The company has experienced a 19% decline in shares year-to-date, currently trading at 64% of its 52-week high [3] - Adobe's free cash flow has shown consistent growth, with $2.1 billion reported this quarter compared to $1.9 billion last year, highlighting long-term value [3][8] Financial Performance - Adobe's latest quarterly earnings report showed net revenue of nearly $6 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase [4] - The company has $20.4 billion in remaining performance obligations, indicating strong future revenue visibility [6][7] - Adobe's earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $5.31, surpassing the consensus estimate of $5.18, suggesting conservative views from analysts [11] Market Positioning - Adobe's subscription-based revenue model provides stability and predictability, making it a defensive play amid market uncertainty [5] - The company's price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 12.8x, significantly higher than the computer sector average of 7.2x, reflecting a premium valuation [7] - Share buybacks totaling $2 billion for eight million shares indicate management's belief that the stock is undervalued [8][9] Analyst Sentiment - Despite a downgrade from Morgan Stanley from $520 to $450, the new target still implies a 25% upside potential from current trading levels [11] - Adobe is currently rated as a "Hold" by analysts, with some top-rated analysts suggesting other stocks may be better buys [13]

Core Insights - Bill Ackman described his investment in General Growth Properties (GGP) as "the best investment" of his career, highlighting the potential of investing in companies facing bankruptcy [1][2] Investment Strategy - Ackman purchased a 25% stake in GGP in late 2008 when its stock price fell from $63 to 34 cents per share, emphasizing that buying stock in a bankrupt company can be a contrarian investment strategy [2] - GGP was the second-largest mall operator in the U.S. with $27 billion in debt, of which $15 billion was due within 18 months, yet Ackman believed in the strength of its underlying assets [2] Financial Performance - Ackman noted that GGP's occupancy rates, rents, and net operating income were all increasing, indicating solid fundamentals for the company [3] - The investment of approximately $60 million by Pershing Square Holdings Ltd. was significant, and Ackman took a board position to assist in the restructuring process [3] Success Stories - A New York City cab driver turned a $50,000 investment in GGP into a $3 million retirement fund, showcasing the transformative potential of Ackman's investment advice [4] Acquisition and Market Impact - The successful turnaround of GGP culminated in its acquisition by Brookfield Property Partners for $9 billion in 2018, marking a key milestone in Ackman's career [5] - Despite a recent decline of 1.58% in Brookfield Property Partners' stock, it has shown favorable price trends over various time frames [5]

Company Overview - Americold Realty Trust (COLD) is currently trading at approximately $12.83, with a forward P/E ratio of 27.89 [1] - The company is viewed as a compelling investment opportunity due to its historic discount, trading at around 5.8x net debt to EBITDA and over a 50% discount to the analyst consensus NAV of approximately $28 [2] Market Dynamics - The cold storage market is experiencing growth driven by increasing demand for frozen food, pharmaceuticals, and e-commerce [3] - Americold and Lineage control about 54% of the North American market share, indicating limited new supply in the face of rising demand [3] Financial Performance - Americold has shown growth in Funds From Operations (FFO), with analyst projections indicating a 7-10% growth in Net Operating Income (NOI) for the next year [3] - The implied cap rate for Americold is in the double digits, significantly above historical private market sales trends in the cold storage sector [2] Investment Thesis - The current risk-reward profile for investing in Americold appears favorable due to its historically low share price, adequate dividend coverage, and substantial NAV gap compared to private market trends [4] - The company is considered a top position in Nugget Capital Partners' portfolio, highlighting its strong market position and resilience in the cold storage industry [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The current market sentiment towards Pinterest (NYSE: PINS) is negative, with a 25% decline in stock price, but this is viewed as a strength by the company, indicating a contrarian investment opportunity [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes a contrarian investment approach, focusing on understanding market sentiment and competition to identify potential investment opportunities [1] - The research aims to provide clarity and conviction for serious investors, utilizing alternative data sources to gain a competitive edge [1] Group 2: Historical Performance - A notable past investment example includes Carvana, which was recommended at $5 per share at the beginning of 2023, leading to a return of over 60 times in three years due to an overblown short interest and positive alternative data signals [1]

Core Viewpoint - Newmont Corp. has significantly outperformed the market in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 106% as of September 15, driven by rising gold prices amid inflation and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Newmont's stock has reached a 52-week high of $80.07, compared to a low of $36.86, showcasing substantial growth [6]. - The NEM/SPY ratio has nearly doubled from 0.0636 in late 2024 to 0.1205 by mid-September 2025, indicating Newmont's strong performance relative to the S&P 500 [5]. - Over the past six months, Newmont's stock has increased by 66.77%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's 15.91% and the SPDR Gold Trust's 21.21% [7]. Group 2: Market Context - The surge in Newmont's stock is attributed to soaring gold prices, which are currently around $3,600 per ounce, driven by persistent inflation concerns and geopolitical instability [2][8]. - The SPDR Gold Trust has seen a year-to-date increase of 36.67%, but Newmont's operational leverage has enhanced its equity returns [6]. Group 3: Investment Appeal - Newmont offers a dividend yield of 1.26%, appealing to investors seeking returns in a volatile market [7]. - The company is positioned as a contrarian investment during market volatility, contrasting with the tech sector's focus on AI hype [7].

Core Viewpoint - Newmont Corp. has significantly outperformed the market in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 106% as of September 15, driven by rising gold prices amid inflation and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Newmont's stock has reached a 52-week high of $80.07, compared to a low of $36.86, showcasing substantial growth [6]. - The NEM/SPY ratio has nearly doubled from 0.0636 in late 2024 to 0.1205 by mid-September 2025, indicating Newmont's strong performance relative to the S&P 500 [5]. - Over the past six months, Newmont's stock has increased by 66.77%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's 15.91% and the SPDR Gold Trust's 21.21% [7]. Group 2: Market Context - The surge in Newmont's stock is attributed to soaring gold prices, which are currently around $3,600 per ounce, driven by persistent inflation concerns and geopolitical instability [2][8]. - The SPDR Gold Trust has seen a year-to-date increase of 36.67%, but Newmont's operational leverage has enhanced its equity returns [6]. Group 3: Investment Insights - Newmont offers a dividend yield of 1.26%, appealing to investors seeking returns in a volatile market [7]. - A breakout above the NEM/SPY ratio of 0.12 could target 0.15 if gold prices continue to rise, indicating potential for further gains [8].

Investment Strategy - The company employs a contrarian investment style, focusing on high-risk, illiquid options and shares [1] - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, with a typical investment timeframe of 3-24 months [1] - The company targets stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, particularly when insiders are buying shares at lower prices [1] Screening and Analysis - Fundamental analysis is utilized to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchased shares after sell-offs to ensure credibility [1] - Technical analysis is employed to optimize entry and exit points, using multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1]

Investment Strategy - The company employs a contrarian investment style, focusing on high-risk, illiquid options and shares [1] - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, with a typical investment timeframe of 3-24 months [1] - The company targets stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, particularly when insiders are buying shares at lower prices [1] Screening and Analysis - Fundamental analysis is utilized to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchased shares after sell-offs to ensure credibility [1] - Technical analysis is employed to optimize entry and exit points, using multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1]