Our next guest says, "Buy high and sell low." The opposite of the old Wall Street outage. Adam Parker, founder and CEO of Trivari Research, joins us this morning for Think from the Road. Adam, good to see you.>> Hey, Carl. Hey, Sarah. How are you.>> All right, so explain that one to us. >> You know, valuation really doesn't work from picking stocks. We've seen that.You can't buy super cheap stocks. And we know that you also can't uh buy stocks that are down from 52- week highs. They they underperform.So the ...

Core Insights - Imperial Petroleum Inc. (NASDAQ:IMPP) reported earnings per share of $0.32, significantly exceeding the estimated $0.11, reflecting operational improvements and the integration of its dry bulk vessels [2][6] - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 was approximately $41.42 million, a 25.5% increase from $33 million in Q3 2024, driven by an increased average number of vessels in the fleet [3][6] - Operational utilization of the fleet improved to 88.7% in Q3 2025, with the dry bulk fleet achieving 92.5% utilization [4][6] Financial Performance - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for IMPP is approximately 3.72, and the price-to-sales ratio is about 1.15, indicating attractive valuation [5] - The enterprise value to sales ratio is 0.15, and the enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is 0.23, suggesting efficient cash flow generation [5] - IMPP's earnings yield stands at 26.87%, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.00009, indicating minimal reliance on debt financing [5] - The current ratio of 1.55 suggests a healthy liquidity position for the company [5]

Core Insights - Verisk Analytics reported strong Q3 fiscal 2025 results, with adjusted earnings of $1.72 per share, exceeding estimates by 1.8% and showing a 3% increase year-over-year. Total revenues reached $768.3 million, a 5.9% year-over-year increase, although slightly below consensus estimates [3][4]. Financial Performance - Underwriting and Rating revenues increased by 6.9% year-over-year to $542 million, surpassing estimates. Claim revenues rose by 3.6% to $226 million, also beating expectations [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 7.2% year-over-year to $429 million, with a margin of 55.8%, up from 55.2% in the previous year [5]. - The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $2.1 billion, a significant increase from $628.7 million at the end of the previous quarter. Long-term debt remained stable at $3.2 billion [5]. Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - Net cash utilized from operating activities was $404 million, with free cash flow of $336 million. The company repurchased $100 million in shares and returned $62.6 million in dividends to shareholders during the quarter [6]. Guidance and Estimates - For fiscal 2025, Verisk revised its revenue guidance down to $3.05-$3.08 billion from $3.09-$3.12 billion. Adjusted EBITDA forecast was also lowered to $1.69-$1.72 billion, while adjusted earnings per share growth remains at $6.80-$7.00 [7]. - Recent estimates have shown a downward trend, indicating a shift in market expectations [8][10]. Market Position and Comparison - Verisk holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) and has a VGM Score of D, indicating weaker momentum and value performance compared to peers [9][10]. - In comparison, TransUnion, a competitor in the same industry, reported a 7.8% year-over-year revenue increase and a 5.2% expected earnings growth for the current quarter, reflecting stronger performance in the sector [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) has experienced a significant decline in share price, underperforming compared to its industry and competitors like Southwest Airlines and Ryanair [1][7]. Group 1: Stock Performance - ALGT shares have dipped 17.5% year-to-date, indicating a poor performance relative to the transportation-airlines industry [7]. - The stock's disappointing performance has led to speculation about whether it is a good time to buy [4]. Group 2: Challenges Facing ALGT - The company is facing headwinds from a challenging macroeconomic environment, including tariff-induced economic uncertainties that may reduce domestic air travel demand [5]. - Production delays at Boeing due to quality control checks and regulatory reviews are impacting ALGT's fleet expansion plans, leading to lower expected profitability and increased maintenance costs [6]. - Rising labor costs are a significant concern, with a projected increase of 19.2% in 2024, overshadowing the decrease in aircraft fuel costs [7][8]. Group 3: Earnings Estimates and Guidance - ALGT has raised its full-year earnings guidance, expecting adjusted consolidated earnings per share (EPS) to exceed $3.00 for 2025, up from a previous estimate of above $2.25 [9]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALGT's 2025 EPS is currently pegged at $3.04 per share, reflecting positive sentiment around the stock [10]. Group 4: Positive Factors - Improvement in air travel demand post-pandemic has led to a 3.5% year-over-year increase in ALGT's top line during the first nine months of 2025, primarily driven by a 3.9% rise in passenger revenues [11]. - The company is modernizing its fleet to meet increased travel demand, with plans to maintain a fleet size of 123 by the end of 2025 [12]. - ALGT's liquidity position is strong, with cash and cash equivalents of $985.32 million, significantly higher than its current debt level of $270.63 million [13]. Group 5: Shareholder Initiatives - The company has engaged in shareholder-friendly initiatives, including dividends totaling $21.9 million and share repurchases worth $12.95 million in 2025 [14][15]. Group 6: Valuation - ALGT is currently trading at a discount compared to the industry based on its trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/B) ratio, indicating an attractive valuation [16].

Core Insights - Asbury Automotive Group reported strong Q3 2025 earnings, with adjusted EPS of $7.17, surpassing estimates and showing a year-over-year increase from $6.35 [3] - Revenues for the quarter reached $4.80 billion, a nearly 13% increase year-over-year, exceeding the consensus estimate [3] Segment Performance - New vehicle revenues increased by 17% year-over-year to $2.53 billion, driven by higher unit sales, with retail units sold totaling 48,070, up 13% from the previous year [4] - Used vehicle retail revenues rose 7% to $1.23 billion but fell short of estimates due to lower unit sales, with retail used vehicle units sold at 37,696, up only 1% year-over-year [5] - Wholesale used vehicle revenues climbed 27% to $185.5 million, exceeding consensus estimates [6] - Finance and insurance business net revenues were $200.3 million, an 8% increase year-over-year, beating estimates [7] - Parts and service revenues reached $659.4 million, up from $593.1 million year-over-year, but missed the consensus estimate [8] Financial Metrics - Selling, general & administrative expenses as a percentage of gross profit increased to 65.7%, up 70 basis points year-over-year [9] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $32.2 million from $69.4 million at the end of 2024, while long-term debt rose to $3.6 billion [9] Market Outlook - Following the earnings release, there has been an upward trend in estimates for Asbury Automotive [10] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expectations for an in-line return in the coming months [12] Industry Comparison - Asbury Automotive is part of the Zacks Automotive - Retail and Wholesale industry, where competitor AutoNation reported a 6.9% year-over-year revenue increase to $7.04 billion [13]

Core Insights - Edison International's third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings were $2.34 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.16 by 8.3% and reflecting a 55% increase from $1.51 in the same quarter last year [3] - The company's total operating revenues for the third quarter reached $5.75 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.61 billion by 2.6% and showing a year-over-year increase of 10.6% from $5.2 billion [4] Financial Performance - Total operating expenses rose by 2.7% year over year to $4.32 billion, with purchased power and fuel costs decreasing by 10.4% and depreciation and amortization expenses increasing by 21.4% [5] - Operating income for the quarter was $1.43 billion, compared to $0.99 billion in the prior-year period [6] Segment Results - Southern California Edison reported adjusted earnings of $2.58 per share, up from $1.74 in the year-ago quarter, attributed to higher revenues from the 2025 GRC final decision [7] - The Edison International Parent and Other segment incurred an adjusted loss of 24 cents per share, slightly worse than the loss of 23 cents in the previous year due to increased interest expenses [7] Financial Update - As of September 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $364 million, up from $193 million at the end of 2024 [8] - Long-term debt increased to $34.48 billion from $33.53 billion at the end of 2024, while net cash flow from operating activities for the first nine months of 2025 was $4.23 billion, compared to $3.84 billion in the prior-year period [8] Capital Expenditures - Total capital expenditures for the company were $4.62 billion as of September 30, 2025, higher than $4.21 billion in the same period last year [9] 2025 Guidance - The company has narrowed its 2025 earnings outlook to a range of $5.95-$6.20 per share, compared to the previous guidance of $5.94-$6.34, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate currently at $6.10 per share [11] Estimate Trends - There has been a downward trend in estimates, with the consensus estimate shifting down by 22.06% recently [12] VGM Scores - Edison International holds a Growth Score of B, a Momentum Score of D, and a Value Score of A, resulting in an aggregate VGM Score of A [13] Industry Performance - Edison International is part of the Zacks Utility - Electric Power industry, where another player, FirstEnergy, reported revenues of $4.15 billion, reflecting an 11.2% year-over-year increase [15]

Core Insights - Nucor's Q3 2025 earnings per share reached $2.63, significantly up from $1.05 in the same quarter last year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.15 [2] - The company reported net sales of approximately $8.52 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of about 14.5%, also exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.16 billion [2] Operating Figures - Total sales tons to outside customers for steel mills in Q3 were 4,976,000 tons, an 8% increase year-over-year, although it fell short of the estimate of 5,095,000 tons [3] - Overall operating rates at Nucor's steel mills were 85% in Q3 2025, unchanged sequentially and up from 75% in Q3 2024 [3] Segment Highlights - The Steel Mills segment reported earnings of $793 million, a decrease from the previous quarter due to lower shipment volumes and margin compression [4] - The Steel Products segment earned $319 million, lower sequentially due to higher costs and stable realized prices [4] - The Raw Materials segment delivered $43 million, down from the prior quarter, impacted by lower pricing for direct reduced iron (DRI) and scrap processing operations [4] Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents were approximately $2.22 billion at the end of the quarter, down around 47.9% year-over-year [5] - Long-term debt stood at about $6.69 billion, an increase of 17.6% [5] - Nucor repurchased roughly 0.7 million shares of its common stock during the third quarter [5] Outlook - The company expects fourth-quarter 2025 earnings to decline from Q3, primarily due to reduced overall volumes and lower average selling prices at sheet mills [6] - The Steel Products segment is projected to face lower earnings mainly due to decreased volumes, while the Raw Materials segment is likely to be adversely affected by weaker realized pricing and planned maintenance outages at DRI facilities [6] Estimate Trends - There has been a downward trend in estimates for Nucor over the past month, with the magnitude of these revisions being net zero [10] - Nucor currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating an expectation of in-line return from the stock in the coming months [10] Industry Performance - Nucor is part of the Zacks Steel - Producers industry, where Commercial Metals (CMC) has gained 3.5% over the past month [11] - Commercial Metals reported revenues of $2.11 billion for the quarter ended August 2025, reflecting a year-over-year change of +5.9% [11] - For the current quarter, Commercial Metals is expected to post earnings of $1.41 per share, indicating a change of +80.8% from the year-ago quarter [12]

Core Insights - HP Inc. reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.93, exceeding the estimated $0.91, indicating strong performance in the technology sector [1][6] - The company's revenue for the quarter ending in October 2025 was $14.64 billion, a 4.2% increase from the previous year, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.97 billion, resulting in a revenue surprise of -2.23% [2][6] Financial Performance - HPQ's EPS matched the previous year's figure, delivering a positive surprise of 2.2% against consensus estimates, marking the only time in the past four quarters that it exceeded consensus EPS estimates [3] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 9.02, indicating how the market values its earnings [4][6] - HPQ's revenue increase of 4.2% year-over-year reflects its competitive position in the market despite the revenue shortfall against estimates [2][6] Market Valuation - The price-to-sales ratio stands at 0.41, suggesting a relatively low market valuation compared to its revenue [4] - The enterprise value to sales ratio is 0.52, slightly higher than its market capitalization, reflecting the company's overall valuation including debt [4] Financial Health - HPQ has a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.62, indicating a higher reliance on debt financing [5] - The current ratio of 0.77 suggests potential challenges in covering short-term liabilities with short-term assets [5] - Despite these challenges, HPQ's earnings yield of about 11.09% offers insight into the return on investment for shareholders [5]

Core Insights - Deere & Company is a significant player in the manufacturing and distribution of equipment for agriculture, construction, and forestry sectors, operating through four main segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services [1] Price Target Adjustments - The consensus price target for Deere has declined over the past year, with the recent average at $543, down from $562.33 in the previous quarter, indicating a more cautious outlook from analysts [2][6] - Analyst Mircea Dobre from Robert W. Baird has set a price target of $487 for Deere, reflecting concerns over cost pressures and slipping earnings estimates [3][6] Upcoming Earnings Report - Deere is preparing to announce its fourth-quarter earnings amidst challenges, with a history of surpassing earnings expectations, but current conditions may complicate this trend [4] - The upcoming earnings report is highly anticipated as it will provide insights into how the company is managing current challenges compared to its competitor, Caterpillar, which is experiencing revenue growth [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Smucker (SJM) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.14 per share, reflecting a 22.5% decline year over year, while revenues are forecasted to increase by 2.1% to $2.32 billion [1]. Earnings Projections - There has been a downward revision of 0.1% in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days, indicating analysts' reconsideration of their initial forecasts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, with empirical studies showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Revenue Estimates - Analysts estimate 'Net Sales- U.S. Retail Coffee' at $805.84 million, a 14.5% increase from the prior year [5]. - 'Net Sales- U.S. Retail Pet Foods' is projected at $421.64 million, indicating a 5.3% decline year over year [5]. - 'Net Sales- International and Away From Home' is expected to reach $345.65 million, reflecting a 7.7% increase from the previous year [6]. - 'Net Sales- Sweet Baked Snacks' is forecasted at $246.74 million, showing a significant decline of 21.8% year over year [6]. Segment Profit Estimates - 'Segment Profit- U.S. Retail Coffee' is estimated at $148.12 million, down from $202.70 million in the previous year [7]. - 'Segment Profit- International and Away From Home' is projected to be $70.64 million, slightly up from $68.00 million year over year [7]. - 'Segment Profit- U.S. Retail Pet Foods' is expected to reach $111.84 million, down from $121.40 million in the prior year [8]. Stock Performance - Smucker shares have shown a return of -0.1% over the past month, compared to a -0.3% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [8].