It's a very bad bet to bet against US companies ability to grow earnings. I think that earnings so far, and it's still early in the season, are coming in better than scheduled. Now, we're seeing strength across the economic complex, right.We're seeing it from a beverage maker, Coke. We're seeing it from an auto GM. And what we're seeing is that tariffs are not derailing the economy yet.That just adds to the already bullish mix in this market. This is the second time in about 5 years we've seen that US compa ...

Core Insights - Community Bancorp. reported a significant increase in earnings for the third quarter of 2025, with net income reaching $4.7 million or $0.84 per share, marking a 52.42% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Financial Performance - The earnings for the third quarter of 2025 were $4.7 million, up from $3.1 million in the third quarter of 2024 [1] - Earnings per share increased from $0.55 in Q3 2024 to $0.84 in Q3 2025 [1]

Core Insights - Procter & Gamble (PG) is expected to report first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on October 24, with anticipated year-over-year sales growth [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PG's fiscal first-quarter revenues is $22.15 billion, reflecting a 1.9% increase from the prior-year quarter, while earnings per share are estimated at $1.90, indicating a 1.6% decline [2] - PG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise average of 1.5%, with a notable 3.5% surprise in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 [3] Earnings Predictions - The current model indicates a negative Earnings ESP of -0.30% for PG, with a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), suggesting lower odds for an earnings beat this quarter [4] - The model predicts a year-over-year organic sales growth of 3.2% for PG, with specific segment growth estimates of 3% for Beauty, Grooming, Health Care, and Fabric & Home Care, and 4% for Baby, Feminine & Family Care [6] Market Challenges - PG faces challenges including market pressures in Greater China, geopolitical tensions, and currency volatility, alongside elevated commodity costs impacting gross margins [7] - The company is expected to experience a core gross margin decline of 50 basis points and an 80 basis points drop in core operating margin for the fiscal first quarter due to these pressures [8] Stock Performance & Valuation - PG shares have decreased by 9.4% over the past six months, underperforming the industry decline of 11.6% and the S&P 500's growth of 28% [9] - The company is trading at a forward 12-month P/E multiple of 22.37X, which is above the industry average of 18.09X but below the S&P 500's average of 23.31X, indicating a relatively pricey valuation [11]

Core Insights - ONEOK, Inc. is a midstream energy company with a market cap of approximately $42.9 billion, involved in various operations including gathering, processing, and transportation of natural gas and crude oil [1] Earnings Expectations - Analysts anticipate ONEOK to report an EPS of $1.48 for the upcoming third quarter, reflecting a 25.4% increase from $1.18 in the same quarter last year [2] - For the full fiscal year 2025, the expected EPS is $5.44, which is a 5.2% increase from $5.17 in fiscal 2024, and a further increase to $6.19 per share is projected for fiscal 2026, representing a 13.8% year-over-year growth [3] Stock Performance - ONEOK's stock has declined by 29.5% over the past 52 weeks, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which gained 14.8%, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund, which saw a 3.8% dip [4] Factors Influencing Stock Price - The recent weakness in ONEOK's share price is attributed to modest earnings growth, increased interest expenses, and a valuation reset following acquisitions, compounded by broader macroeconomic pressures [5] - The company's cash flows, while stable, are sensitive to changes in interest rates and energy prices, and its recovery may hinge on the successful integration of recent acquisitions and improved market sentiment [5] Analyst Ratings - The stock holds a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating, with 11 out of 19 analysts recommending a "Strong Buy," one a "Moderate Buy," and seven advising a "Hold." The mean price target is $93.44, indicating a 36.3% upside potential from current levels [6]

Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Q3 are down 2% quarter over quarter, similar to the setup seen in Q2 [2] - In Q2, consensus earnings expectations for the broader market (excluding technology) were about 2.5%, while realized earnings growth was 8.5%, indicating significant upside potential [3] Market Performance - The Dow and S&P indices experienced their best week since August, reflecting a positive sentiment in the market [1] - Despite some sectors underperforming, such as regional banks and oil, defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities, and gold are performing well [5] Sector Analysis - Regional banks have underperformed by more than 25 percentage points compared to large banks since early 2023, suggesting a preference for large banks as a safer investment [8] - The oil sector is facing challenges due to excess supply following the end of the US driving season, leading to a lack of allocation in energy assets [7] Investment Strategy - The strategy involves not completely rotating away from AI and tech stocks but also considering buying dips in banks and looking at industrials [9] - Gold is being recommended alongside tech stocks, driven by factors such as China's gold stockpiling and central bank diversification [10][14]

Are you concerned. And if so, about what. We are.Advani That was a great interview. I listened to it earlier and Andrew pointed out one of the things we watching every morning when we wake up, it's unprofitable stocks, meme stocks, crypto related assets. Again, you're just seeing a sort of junk rally playing out as momentum and sentiment has really been the name of the game here.It's a key reason that we're allocating to higher quality. Stocks were fully invested, but we are drafting off the market right no ...

Core Insights - The Q3 earnings season has started strong, with American Express and other major financial institutions exceeding earnings and revenue estimates, indicating a healthy consumer and economy [2][3] - The overall economic outlook from these bank results is positive, with stable consumer spending and improving credit demand despite concerns about non-bank lenders [3][4] - The capital markets business is showing signs of recovery, with management expressing optimism about deal pipelines, supported by favorable regulatory and monetary policies [4] Financial Performance - For the 47.7% of the finance sector's market capitalization that reported Q3 results, total earnings increased by +20.4% and revenues by +10.9%, with 96.2% beating EPS estimates and 88.5% beating revenue estimates [5][6] - Among the 58 S&P 500 members that reported Q3 results, total earnings rose by +15.4% year-over-year on +8.0% higher revenue, with 86.2% beating EPS estimates and 79.3% beating revenue estimates [6] - The Zacks Finance sector is expected to see Q3 earnings growth of +21.3% and revenue growth of +7.6% compared to the same period last year [7] Future Expectations - Positive Q3 results and management commentary are expected to sustain favorable revisions, with projected earnings growth of +6.5% and revenue growth of +6.4% for Q3 2025 [8] - The trend of increasing Q3 estimates suggests a positive outlook for the upcoming quarters, contingent on continued strong earnings results and guidance [13]

Core Insights - The recent stock market highs are primarily supported by strong corporate earnings growth rather than investor exuberance [2][3] - Equity market returns driven by robust earnings are generally more resilient compared to those influenced by fluctuating investor sentiment [3] - Current stock market valuations are similar to those at the beginning of 2025, with earnings growth being the main driver [5][6] Earnings Performance - The Nasdaq 100 Index has increased by 16% this year, supported by a 14% rise in expected earnings [8] - The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks have also risen by 16%, with expected earnings growth of 17% [8] - The S&P 500 large-cap stocks are up 13%, with expected earnings growth of 10% [8] - Even the S&P 600 small-cap stocks, which have lagged, show expected earnings growth of 5% [8] Valuation Trends - Valuations across major indices have seen minimal changes this year, with the Nasdaq 100's valuations rising by only 2% and the S&P 500's by 3% [8] - The "Mag 7" tech stocks and small-cap S&P 600 have experienced a shrink in valuations despite their price increases [8]

Core Insights - The current market environment is dynamic, with banks indicating broad strength across various economic segments despite ongoing challenges like the government shutdown and trade tensions [1][2] - Earnings reports from major banks have been encouraging, reinforcing a bullish outlook among investors, particularly as technology sector earnings estimates have been raised significantly [1] - The resilience of the consumer remains a key theme, with no signs of deterioration in consumer spending, which is crucial for economic growth [1] Banking Sector - Major banks reported strong earnings, suggesting robust performance across different segments, including AI and capital markets [1] - The CFO of JP Morgan noted a record level of deal-making and M&A activity, indicating a healthy investment climate [1] Technology Sector - Technology earnings estimates have increased from 15.9% to 20.9% year-over-year growth for the current quarter, driven by positive revenue expectations from major companies like Microsoft and Nvidia [1] - The anticipation of strong earnings from technology companies is expected to support market sentiment and valuations [1] IPO Activity - There have been over 150 IPOs in 2023, with more expected, reflecting strong investor appetite and risk sentiment in the market [2] - The increase in IPO activity is seen as a positive sign for market health, suggesting that investors are looking beyond current challenges [2] Market Sentiment - Investors are largely viewing current geopolitical and economic challenges as noise, maintaining a long position in the market [2] - Concerns about high valuations exist, but they are not significantly impacting the overall positive outlook among major money managers [1]

Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs 认为，尽管存在诸多不确定性因素，但考虑到健康的盈利增长和美联储的宽松政策，以及机构投资者相对保守的仓位，市场前景依然乐观 [2][3] - 机构投资者仓位并未因标普 500 指数接近历史高位而大幅增持 [3][4][5] Earnings Analysis - 尽管面临外汇顺风减少和关税可能增加的不利因素，但 Goldman Sachs 预计企业盈利仍将超过市场普遍预期的 6% [5][6][7] - 过去两个季度，标普 500 指数成份股公司的盈利增长约为 12%，但市场普遍预期本季度仅为 6%，可能过于保守 [6][7] - 关税已经对企业利润率产生了一定影响，目前美国政府收取的关税收入约为每季度 1000 亿美元，约占美国企业总利润的 10% [17] AI Investment and Productivity - Goldman Sachs 认为，当前对人工智能的资本支出是合理的，因为人工智能带来的生产力提升可能创造 4 万亿美元或更多的价值 [10] - 考虑到潜在的生产力提升，今年约 4000 亿美元的人工智能资本支出是合理的 [11] - 英伟达的例子表明，人工智能领域公司的估值并未过度扩张，其股价上涨主要由盈利增长驱动 [12][13] Economic Indicators - Goldman Sachs 预计就业情况将趋于稳定，并在明年略有改善，货币政策宽松和财政政策刺激将提供支持 [15][16] - 零售销售数据表现良好，大型银行也指出消费者仍然具有韧性 [20] Commodities - Goldman Sachs 的商品分析师对贵金属持乐观态度，预计全球央行和 ETF 的购买将持续 [21] - 推动黄金价格上涨的因素包括对滞胀的避险需求、央行资产重新配置以及与 Meme 股票的关联 [22]