Here's the key economic data at risk of being delayed in a government shutdown https://t.co/ahGAwTsHIT ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The upcoming nonfarm payroll report is considered the most significant economic indicator, with potential implications for Federal Reserve rate decisions [5] - Concerns exist regarding overheating in certain sectors of the economy, particularly data centers, while other sectors like autos, homes, and retailers are performing poorly [2] Group 2: Company Earnings Reports - Carnival and Jefferies are set to report quarterly earnings, with Carnival's performance in the cruise industry being highlighted as strong post-COVID, and Jefferies' performance indicating the health of investment houses [2] - Paychex is viewed as a solid metric for the economy's state, with its earnings report expected to provide insights into small and medium-sized businesses [3] - Nike's earnings report is anticipated to be crucial, with expectations for future growth under new CEO Elliot Hill, although uncertainty remains about whether the upcoming report will be a breakout quarter [3] - Conagra's earnings report is awaited, with concerns about its high dividend and the need for a significant positive surprise to reverse its stock's downward trend [4]

Market Downturn Factors - Crypto market面临四大下行压力，包括期权到期、美国政府可能停摆、强劲的经济数据以及过高的杠杆[1][2][3] - 价值 230 亿美元的比特币和以太坊期权即将到期，这通常会带来高波动性[1] - 10 月 1 日美国政府关门的几率现在是 67%，过去政府关门曾导致市场调整[1][2] - 美国第二季度 GDP 修订数据为 3.8%，高于预期的 3.3%，良好的经济数据在短期内利空，因为它降低了降息的可能性[2] - 零售交易者开设了高杠杆头寸，导致大量清算，从而导致市场抛售[2][3] Whale Manipulation - Whales（巨鲸）可能正在策划一次抛售，目的是在第四季度反弹之前让投资者恐慌性抛售[3] - Whales 在 9 月份以看涨的方式启动，以诱导人们认为市场只会单边上涨，然后开始抛售[3] Max Pain Price - 比特币的最大痛点价格为 11 万美元，以太坊为 3700 美元，通常 Whales 会将价格推向最大痛点[1]

Treasury yields edged up to a three-week high as investors looked to US economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials for clues on the interest-rate outlook https://t.co/iCf5qEgIXG ...

Market Overview - Futures are slightly lower at the start of the trading day, but there are lingering bullish tones in the market [1][5] - The market has experienced a significant run recently, indicating potential fatigue in pre-market futures [5] Earnings and Economic Data - Key earnings reports are expected this week, including Micron after the bell tomorrow and Costco on Thursday [2] - Important economic data will be released, including PMIs, durable goods, GDP revisions, jobless claims, and personal income and outlays [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - A steady flow of Federal Reserve speakers is anticipated this week, discussing recent interest rate decisions and economic outlooks [4][10] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in October is currently around 91.9%, with market expectations heavily influenced by upcoming economic data [12][14] Inflation and Labor Market - The consensus for the year-over-year PCE inflation rate is expected to tick up slightly to between 2.6% and 2.7%, while the core PCE is projected to remain flat at around 2.9% [13] - Ongoing labor market data will be crucial for future discussions on interest rates, with more job-related data expected in early October [14] Gold and Risk Sentiment - Gold prices are rising, attributed to a risk-off sentiment in the market and a weaker dollar [6][7] - The VIX is higher, indicating increased market volatility, while yields on 10-year notes have drifted lower [8][9]

Market Overview - All four U.S. equity benchmarks closed at record highs on Thursday, with the Dow at 46,142.42, S&P 500 at 6,631.96, Nasdaq Composite at 22,470.72, and Russell 2000 at 2,467.70 [3] - The U.S. equity markets opened with the Nasdaq leading at +0.44%, followed by S&P 500 at +0.27%, Dow at +0.20%, and Russell 2000 at -0.02% [1] Current Market Sentiment - There is a lack of significant market-moving events today, allowing investors to digest recent information and take a breather [4] - No earnings calls are scheduled for today, indicating a quieter day in terms of corporate announcements [5] - There are no major economic events occurring today, with impactful data expected only on Monday [6]

Labor Market Data Revisions & Reliability - Preliminary benchmark revisions showed a decrease of 911,000 jobs [1] - June saw the first negative revisions since December 2020 [1] - The QCW provision aligned closely with expectations due to a predictable overcount in recent quarters [2] - Data becomes more reliable by the second or third month as more responses are collected [6] - If benchmarks reveal that 51% of jobs initially reported were inaccurate, it indicates a weaker job market at the beginning of the year [7] Data Collection Challenges & Solutions - Low response rates are a significant issue affecting data accuracy across various surveys [4] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics is actively working to address data inaccuracies, particularly related to the birth-death model for new companies [3] - Addressing low response rates requires sufficient resources for data collection agencies [5] - The birth-death model, which estimates job creation from new companies, is difficult to predict, especially during economic changes [3][4] Monetary Policy & Data - The Fed bases decisions on interest rates using data that may be noisy [1] - Policy decisions are based on current conditions rather than past data [8]

Before we discuss what the Fed will do, we need to have a discussion about the conflict on interest rates between the White House and the Federal Reserve. Both think interest rates are very important, but they both have very different points of view.For everything else you need to know ahead of this week’s Fed meeting, keep reading for more from three of our top market analysts.But perhaps our uneasy monetary policymakers, their shoulders preemptively bent under the weight of history’s judgment, can take so ...

Market Outlook & Strategy - The market anticipates three rate cuts, which differs from the potential of a one-time cut, impacting market highs [6] - Economic data holding steady is positive for stocks, leading to a steeper curve and growth [2] - Focus on interest rate-sensitive sectors and mega-cap growth stocks for continued outperformance [4][5] - Low rate volatility, lower dollar volatility, and lower oil prices are conducive to buying risk assets globally [15] Economic Indicators & Concerns - Labor market weakening is a key factor influencing potential interest rate cuts [4] - A bifurcated economy exists where the stock market performs well, but challenges remain for new graduates and the working class [8] - Consumer strength, especially among lower-end and younger consumers, is crucial for a healthier bull market [10] Global Trade & China - Optimistic China trade news signals the worst is behind us, providing clarity for companies to plan costs [11][12] - Peak aggregate rates are expected to be 30%, allowing companies to better judge costs and plan [12] - China's economy may be performing worse than its stock market, similar to the US labor situation [13]

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics' revised data shows that only half the jobs we thought had been created between March 2024 and March 2025, actually materialized.@keds_economist joins @chafkin and @svaneksmith to unpack the conflicting signals that economic data and the stock market give us — and what they say about the health of the economy https://t.co/qSwm0RcP17 ...