Economic Indicators - The dollar index fell by -0.44% due to weaker-than-expected US economic data, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [1] - US September retail sales rose by +0.2% month-over-month, below expectations of +0.4% [2] - The final demand PPI for September increased by +2.7% year-over-year, slightly above expectations of +2.6%, while PPI excluding food and energy rose by +2.6%, below expectations of +2.7% [3] - The Conference Board's US November consumer confidence index dropped by -6.8 to a 7-month low of 88.7, significantly lower than the expected 93.3 [4] Market Reactions - The markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the FOMC at the next meeting on December 9-10 [4] - The euro rose by +0.45% against the dollar, supported by the weaker dollar and positive economic news from the Eurozone [5] - Eurozone new car registrations in October increased by +5.8% year-over-year, marking the fourth consecutive monthly rise [6] - The USD/JPY fell by -0.56% as the yen strengthened amid concerns of potential Japanese government intervention in the forex market [7]

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The Conference Board US Nov consumer confidence index fell -6.8 to a 7-month low of 88.7, weaker than expectations of 93.3.The latest weekly update from ADP showed US private payrolls fell -13,500 a week, on average, in the four weeks ending November 8.The US Sep S&P CaseShiller composite-20 home price index rose +1.36% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.40% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in more than two years.US Sep PPI final demand rose +2.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.6% y/y. However, ...

Core Viewpoint - The tech sector, particularly AI-related stocks, is experiencing significant selling pressure, with concerns about overspending and fundamental issues emerging as key themes in the market [2][4][5]. Group 1: AI Sector Performance - Nvidia is facing heavy selling pressure, breaking through a key support level at 170, indicating a shift in AI sentiment from positive to negative over the past few months [2][3]. - Oracle's upcoming earnings report on December 8 is anticipated to be crucial for the AI sector, as it may address concerns regarding its heavy debt issuance and overall market sentiment [4][5]. - The overall sentiment around AI investments has deteriorated, with companies like Oracle and Alphabet showing mixed performance, raising questions about the sustainability of the AI growth narrative [3][5]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Indicators - The market is currently pricing in an over 80% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, a significant increase from about 30% just a month ago [7][8]. - Mixed macroeconomic data, including PPI and consumer confidence, is complicating the economic outlook, with inflation remaining elevated despite signs of a softening labor market [10][14]. - The Federal Reserve is in a challenging position, needing to balance elevated inflation with a potentially weakening labor market, which could influence future rate decisions [10][14]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have recently lost support at the 50-day simple moving average, with a critical test occurring at the 100-day simple moving average [16][17]. - A potential bounce off the 100-day moving average indicates a critical juncture for the markets, with bulls needing to clear the 50-day moving average to confirm an uptrend [17][18]. - The outcome of this technical analysis will be clearer by the end of the week, especially with the upcoming shortened trading week [19].

Market Overview - The US stock market showed mixed signals on November 25, with the Dow Jones up 0.6%, the S&P 500 flat, and the Nasdaq down 0.3%, indicating ongoing concerns about high valuations in AI and tech stocks [1] - Despite a tech rally on Monday, all three indexes remain on track for monthly losses as investors weigh retail sales, inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's next move [1] Technology Sector - Tech shares led market volatility, with Nvidia shares falling over 4% after reports that Meta plans to invest billions in AI chips from Google, signaling increased competition [2][7] - Other tech giants like Alphabet and Alibaba performed well, supported by strong earnings and AI-driven growth momentum, which reassured investors about their resilience amid rising competition [8] Federal Reserve and Rate Cut Expectations - The market is pricing in over an 80% chance of a Fed rate cut at the December meeting, with Fed Governor Chris Waller advocating for easing to support economic growth [3][10] - A potential rate cut is viewed as beneficial for growth stocks, particularly in technology and consumer discretionary sectors, although uncertainty remains regarding the timing and scope of such a move [12] Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - Retail sales data presents a mixed picture, with September sales rising only 0.2%, below forecasts, while October data showed a rebound with sales excluding autos and gas up 0.6% month-over-month and 5% year-over-year, driven by online and food store sales [4][14] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.3%, raising the annual rate to 2.7%, indicating moderate but persistent price pressures [15] Earnings Season - The earnings season is gaining attention, with Kohl's and Best Buy reporting this week, providing insights into consumer demand ahead of the holiday season [5][21] - Investors are closely monitoring these results to gauge spending trends and assess whether consumers are holding back [5] Energy Market - Energy markets experienced significant declines, with Brent crude falling 1.9% to below $62 per barrel and WTI dropping 2% to below $58, both down nearly 5% over the past five sessions [17][22] - Natural gas prices also fell, with futures down 5.9% to trade under $4.40 per MMBtu, influenced by peace-talk progress and strong US production [19]

Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) decreased by -0.35% due to weaker-than-expected US economic data, including September retail sales and core PPI, which increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [1] - US September retail sales rose by +0.2% month-over-month, below the expected +0.4% [2] - The final demand PPI for September increased by +2.7% year-over-year, slightly above the expected +2.6%, while PPI excluding food and energy rose by +2.6%, below the expected +2.7% [3] - The S&P Case-Shiller composite-20 home price index for September rose by +1.36% year-over-year, below the expected +1.40%, marking the smallest increase in over two years [3] - The Conference Board's US November consumer confidence index fell by -6.8 to a 7-month low of 88.7, weaker than the expected 93.3 [3] Market Reactions - The markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10 [4] - The euro (EUR/USD) increased by +0.50% as the weaker dollar supported it, alongside positive economic news from the Eurozone [5] - Eurozone new car registrations for October rose by +5.8% year-over-year to 917,000 units, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase [6] - Swaps indicate a 2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at the December 18 policy meeting [6] Currency Movements - The USD/JPY decreased by -0.57% as the yen strengthened against the dollar, driven by concerns over potential Japanese government intervention in the forex market [7] - The decline in T-note yields also contributed to the yen's strength [7]

Group 1: Alphabet (Google) - Alphabet's shares are rising in pre-market trading, driven by reports of Meta considering a multi-billion dollar investment in Google's AI chips [2][3] - The company is gaining traction in the AI sector, with its Gemini AI model receiving positive feedback and outperforming competitors like GPT-5 in various benchmarks [6][7] - The optimism surrounding Alphabet's AI advancements is reflected in its stock price, indicating that investments in AI are yielding positive results [7] Group 2: Nvidia - Nvidia's shares are down over 3.5% in pre-market trading as companies seek to diversify their AI chip suppliers, reducing reliance on Nvidia [4] - Despite being a market leader, Nvidia faces challenges as competitors like Alphabet and others enhance their AI capabilities [4] Group 3: Meta - Meta is projected to spend between $70 billion to $72 billion on AI infrastructure this year, indicating its significant investment in AI technology [3] - The potential partnership with Google for AI chips highlights Meta's commitment to enhancing its AI capabilities [2] Group 4: Alibaba - Alibaba reported better-than-expected revenue growth of 5% to $35 billion, with cloud revenue rising by 34% and AI-related product revenue experiencing triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [11] - The company's revamped Quen AI app achieved 10 million downloads in just one week, showcasing strong demand for its AI offerings [11] Group 5: Fed Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut next month have risen to over 80%, influenced by comments from Fed officials advocating for near-term easing [12][13] - The anticipation of a rate cut is impacting various sectors, including retail and technology, as investors adjust their strategies accordingly [12][13] Group 6: Retail Earnings - Best Buy reported Q3 revenue of $9.67 billion, exceeding expectations, and plans to buy back $300 million in shares [43] - Kohl's raised its full-year outlook for the second consecutive quarter, indicating stabilization under new CEO Michael Bender [44] - Dick Sporting Goods also boosted its outlook, citing expected sales gains from existing stores, contributing to a positive retail earnings trend [45]

Group 1 - Global stock markets are experiencing strong gains, but there is a belief that the recent sell-off in stocks is not fully exhausted, particularly in the digital asset sector [1][2] - The Fed's potential rate cuts are expected to influence the stock market positively, but there is skepticism about whether this will be a game changer for investors [5][7] - The overall economic theme suggests that the Fed will provide easier monetary policy than traditional economics would indicate, which is supportive for the stock market [7][8] Group 2 - There is uncertainty regarding the impact of a potential rate cut in December on future cuts, with debates expected if a cut occurs [6] - The current economic growth is being driven by a capital expenditure (CapEx) boom, and if this boom falters, the economy may struggle to maintain its robustness [7] - The market's reaction to small moves in Fed policy indicates an outsized sensitivity, reflecting the importance of the Fed's decisions on market valuations [4][5]

Strong gains in stocks globally. US into Asia. Mark, as a result of what the Fed rate cut theme does that live on US futures rolled over a little.Yeah, I think that the sell off that we started in stocks about four weeks ago is still not fully exhausted. I know that's been a kind of repeated refrain of mine for the last few weeks. I understand why people are rushing to buy the dip very quickly, but it just doesn't feel like that the pain in the digital asset sector has fully played out.And sure, there's not ...

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures increased on Monday, continuing Friday's gains, driven by optimism regarding a potential December rate cut suggested by New York Fed President John Williams [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.44% to 46,448.27, the S&P 500 increased by 1.5% to 6,705.12, and the Nasdaq jumped 2.69% to 22,872.00 [1] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector experienced a boost as hopes for a December Fed rate cut lifted tech stocks, with supportive comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller further fueling the rally [2] Broadcom Inc. - Broadcom's stock surged 11.10% to close at $377.96, reaching an intraday high of $382 and a low of $347.66, with a 52-week high of $386.48 and a low of $138.10; in after-hours trading, the stock rose 1.49% to $383.60 [1] Alphabet Inc. - Alphabet's Class C shares climbed 6.28% to close at $318.47, hitting a new 52-week high of $319.80, with a low of $142.66; after-hours trading saw a gain of 2.65% to $326.90 [3][4] - Alphabet's Class A shares ended the day 6.3% higher at $318.58, gaining 2.6% to $327 in extended trading [3] - The company is reportedly in talks with Meta and other cloud clients to supply Google's AI TPU chips, indicating increased competition with Nvidia; Alphabet shares rose about 2% after-hours while Nvidia slipped roughly 2% [4] SanDisk Corporation - SanDisk's stock rose 13.33% to $226.96, with a high of $228.18 and a low of $205.13; the stock's 52-week high is $284.76 and a low of $27.90, popping 7.29% to $243.50 in after-hours trading [5][6] - SanDisk was added to the S&P 500, replacing Interpublic Group after its acquisition by Omnicom, effective November 28; PTC Therapeutics will replace SanDisk in the S&P SmallCap 600 [6] - The company reported strong fourth-quarter results on November 6, beating revenue and EPS estimates for the eighth time in ten quarters [6] Novo Nordisk A/S - Novo Nordisk shares fell 5.58% to $44.97, with a high of $45.22 and a low of $43.08; the stock's 52-week high is $112.52 [7][8] - The company reported that its 2-year evoke and evoke+ trials did not show semaglutide to be superior to placebo in slowing Alzheimer's disease progression, despite improvements in biomarkers; the 1-year extension phase will be discontinued [8] Zoom Communications Inc. - Zoom's stock dipped slightly by 0.04% to close at $78.60, with an intraday high of $80.27 and a low of $78.59; the stock's 52-week high is $92.80 [10][11] - The company reported third-quarter revenue of $1.23 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.52 per share, beating forecasts; enterprise revenue rose 6.1% year-over-year, ending the quarter with 4,363 large customers and generating $629.3 million in operating cash flow [11]