Group 1: Dollar Index and Federal Reserve - The dollar index fell to a 1.5-week low, finishing down by -0.08% due to increased expectations of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [1] - Swaps markets now indicate an 83% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10, up from 30% last week [3] Group 2: Potential Fed Chair Nomination - The dollar is under pressure following reports that Kevin Hassett is a leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, which is viewed as bearish for the dollar due to Hassett's dovish stance [2] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Indicators - The euro rose by +0.05% as it recovered from early losses, supported by increased inflation expectations in the Eurozone and stronger-than-expected German CPI [4] - Eurozone's October 1-year inflation expectations increased to +2.8% from +2.7% in September, contrary to expectations of a decline [5] - German October retail sales unexpectedly fell by -0.3% month-over-month, which was weaker than the anticipated +0.2% increase [5] Group 4: Japanese Yen Performance - The yen rose by -0.12% amid better-than-expected Japanese industrial production and retail sales reports, with the November Tokyo CPI remaining above 2%, indicating a hawkish outlook for BOJ policy [6]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index closed up by +0.54%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index by +0.61%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index by +0.78% on Friday [1] - Stock indexes reached 2-week highs, driven by strength in semiconductor stocks and a rally in energy producers following a rise in WTI crude prices [2] Trading Activity - Trading activity was lighter than usual due to a technical outage at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which disrupted trading since Thursday evening [3] - Market activity was subdued with only half a day of trading following the Thanksgiving holiday [3] Economic Sentiment - Optimism regarding a potential Fed rate cut has positively influenced stock performance, with bond yields falling amid weak economic news and dovish comments from the Fed [4] - The probability of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming December 9-10 FOMC meeting increased to 83% from 30% the previous week [4][5] Corporate Earnings - The Q3 corporate earnings season is nearing completion, with 475 of the 500 S&P companies having reported results [6] - 83% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, marking the best quarter since 2021, with Q3 earnings rising by +14.6%, significantly above the expected +7.2% year-over-year [6]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index is up by +0.39%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up by +0.61%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is up by +0.46% [1] - Stock indexes are reaching 2-week highs, supported by strength in semiconductor stocks and climbing energy producers, with WTI crude up more than 1% to a 1-week high [2] Trading Activity - Trading activity was lighter than normal due to a technical outage at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which disrupted trading since Thursday evening [3] - Market activity was expected to be subdued with only half a day of trading following the Thanksgiving holiday [3] Economic Outlook - Optimism about a potential Fed rate cut has boosted stocks, with market sentiment improving as bond yields have fallen amid weak US economic news and dovish Fed comments [4] - The chance of a Fed rate cut at the December 9-10 FOMC meeting has increased to 84% from 30% last week [4][5] Corporate Earnings - Q3 corporate earnings season is concluding, with 475 of the 500 S&P companies having reported results [6] - 83% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, marking the best quarter since 2021, with Q3 earnings rising by +14.6%, significantly above expectations of +7.2% year-over-year [6]

Market Outlook - The market is expected to see a Fed rate cut soon, which historically leads to positive stock performance, with a 100% success rate when the S&P is near record highs [2][12] - There is optimism for a double-digit increase in stock prices by the end of the year, supported by seasonal trends and fiscal stimulus [4][10] AI Sector - Companies like Google and Nvidia are viewed positively, with expectations that both will benefit from the ongoing AI race, despite recent fluctuations in their stock prices [6][8] - The potential shift of Meta to Google chips is not expected to significantly impact Nvidia's position in the market [7] Consumer Spending - Projections indicate a 3-4% increase in shopping during the Christmas holiday, with record travel expected for Thanksgiving [9] - The historical "Santa Claus rally" is anticipated, with an average gain of 1.3% in the S&P 500 during this period [10] Federal Reserve Influence - There is an 80% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, which could lead to multiple cuts in the following year, positively impacting asset prices [13][14] - The appointment of a new Fed chair before Christmas is expected to further support market optimism [12] Sector Performance - The overall market is projected to rise, with particular optimism for chip stocks like Nvidia due to favorable regulatory environments and fiscal stimulus [16]

Market Overview - Bitcoin price has surpassed $91,000, indicating a potential recovery in the cryptocurrency market after significant declines [1] - Despite the recent surge of 4.51% in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin remains approximately 20% lower over the past 30 days [2] - The price recovery is notable as Bitcoin had previously dropped to $81,000 on November 21, making the $91,000 level a critical recovery point [2] Federal Reserve Influence - Expectations are building for a potential 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by December 2025, which may influence Bitcoin's price movements [3] - Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Chris Waller, have expressed support for a rate cut, citing signs of a weakening labor market [4] - However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins has raised concerns about inflation, suggesting that the Fed's communication may have a more significant impact on Bitcoin than the actual rate cut [5] Market Sentiment and Liquidity - Analysts from 10X Research emphasize that Bitcoin's performance is closely tied to Fed communication rather than just rate adjustments, indicating that a rate cut may not necessarily lead to a bullish trend for Bitcoin [5] - There is a risk of increased market selloff if the Fed opts not to cut rates, which could negatively impact Bitcoin's price [6] - Coinbase has reported a significant influx of USDC as Bitcoin approaches $91,000, suggesting improved liquidity that could support further price increases [6]

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices are increasing due to rising expectations of a rate cut following dovish comments from policymakers [1] Group 1 - Spot gold has edged higher in response to market sentiment [1] - The anticipation of a rate cut is becoming more pronounced among investors [1] - Dovish remarks from policymakers are influencing market expectations [1]

Market Outlook - The market is experiencing a rebound, with the potential for a year-end rally as seasonality approaches, especially after the S&P 500 reached new all-time highs in November [1][2] - The recent market movements suggest a possible outside month to the upside if the market closes at all-time highs [2][3] Federal Reserve Influence - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's stance have influenced market behavior, with recent comments indicating a more dovish outlook, which has positively impacted market performance [5][6] - JP Morgan has upgraded its S&P 500 target to 7,500 for next year, with potential for it to reach 8,000 if the Fed maintains a dovish approach [8] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector has shown significant strength, with a nearly 10.5% increase from recent lows, contributing to overall market gains [9] - The NASDAQ and small-cap stocks also experienced notable rallies, with increases of almost 6% and 8% respectively [9][10] Retail Investor Activity - Retail investors demonstrated strong buying activity, with one of the highest buying days recorded recently, indicating confidence in the market's upward trajectory [10] - Retail investors have been largely correct in their market predictions throughout the year, suggesting a robust retail presence in the current market environment [11] Volatility Index (VIX) Insights - The VIX has shown signs of excess fear when it exceeds 25, indicating potential oversold conditions, which may lead to further market upside [12][14] - The VIX's calculation method suggests that the current volatility outlook may allow for additional upward movement in the market [13][14]

Economic Indicators - The Fed Beige Book indicated mixed economic outlooks, with some contacts noting increased risks of slower activity while others expressed optimism among manufacturers [1] - The US November MNI Chicago PMI fell by 7.5 points to 36.3, marking the steepest contraction in 17 months and weaker than the expected 43.6 [1] - US September capital goods new orders, excluding defense and aircraft, rose by 0.9% month-over-month, surpassing expectations of 0.3% [1] Labor Market - Weekly initial unemployment claims in the US unexpectedly fell by 6,000 to a 7-month low of 216,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the anticipated increase to 225,000 [2] - The MBA mortgage applications rose by 0.2% in the week ending November 21, with the purchase mortgage sub-index increasing by 7.6% while the refinancing sub-index decreased by 5.7% [2] Stock Market Performance - Stock indexes rallied, with the S&P 500 reaching a 2-week high and the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 hitting 1.5-week highs, driven by strength in semiconductor stocks [5] - The S&P 500 Index closed up by 0.69%, the Dow Jones up by 0.67%, and the Nasdaq 100 up by 0.87% [6] Corporate Earnings - Q3 corporate earnings season is concluding, with 83% of S&P 500 companies exceeding forecasts, leading to a 14.6% increase in earnings, more than doubling the expected 7.2% year-over-year growth [8] - Urban Outfitters reported Q3 net sales of $1.53 billion, exceeding the consensus of $1.49 billion, resulting in a stock increase of over 12% [14] - Dell Technologies raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $112.2 billion from a previous range of $105 billion to $109 billion, stronger than the consensus of $107.94 billion, leading to a stock increase of over 5% [15] Market Sentiment - Optimism regarding a potential Fed rate cut has improved market sentiment, with the probability of a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting rising to 80% from 30% [4][7] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the cancellation of the October consumer price report, with the November report scheduled for December 18 [7]

Group 1 - Prediction markets indicate a strong likelihood (over 80%) of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with minimal chances of rates being held steady or a larger move occurring [1][4] - The total trading volume on Polymarket for the Fed decision market is approximately $171 million, while Kalshi has seen over $15.8 million in bets placed [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's next policy meeting is scheduled for December 9-10, where decisions regarding interest rates will be made amid economic pressures such as rising housing costs and inflation [7] Group 2 - President Trump has criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not implementing more aggressive rate cuts, with Powell's term ending in May 2026 [10] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is conducting interviews for potential candidates to replace Powell, with an announcement expected by Christmas [11]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock futures indicate a higher opening due to broad-based gains in the previous session, driven by delayed data that enhances expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month [1] Group 1 - The delayed data has positively influenced market sentiment, leading to increased expectations for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1]