Core Viewpoint - Tension exists between the Federal Reserve's goals of controlling inflation and supporting the job market, leading to a cautious approach in interest rate decisions as inflation remains high and the job market shows signs of weakness [1] Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% as expected, but there were dissenting opinions within the committee, indicating differing views on the necessity of further cuts [2][4] - The Fed has cumulatively cut rates by 1.75 percentage points since September 2024, with current rates in the target range of 3.25% to 3.5%, still above pre-pandemic levels [5][19] - The Fed is expected to pause further cuts in January, with forecasts suggesting only one additional cut next year, contrasting with some analysts predicting two cuts [6][7] Economic Indicators - The natural rate of interest is believed to be closer to pre-pandemic levels, influenced by demographic trends and economic growth rates [9][20] - The housing market continues to weaken despite rate cuts, indicating potential need for further cuts to support this sector [10] - The lack of recent GDP data creates uncertainty in assessing the overall economic picture, with expectations for updates once Q3 data is available [11][12] Inflation and Tariff Policies - Factors that could lead to more aggressive rate cuts include a significant downturn in the AI sector, which has been a major contributor to GDP growth [12] - Tariff policies present a risk for inflation; if businesses pass on tariff costs to consumers, it could increase inflationary pressures, complicating the Fed's monetary policy [13][14] Neutral Interest Rate - The neutral interest rate is crucial for balancing full employment and inflation at the Fed's 2% target, with current rates slightly above the estimated neutral level of around 3% [15][19] - The neutral rate has trended down over decades, influenced by demographic changes and economic growth, suggesting that the Fed's long-term rate setting will align with this metric [21][22]

two of what I counted to be five you guys five times he said we're well positioned to wait let's bring in our floor show people joining me now JP Morgan Asset Management global market strategist Mera Pandit and Slate Stone wealth chief market strategist Kenny Pulcari Meera let's get to you first this is a significant meeting and the markets are reflecting that what do you think the markets heard that have them jumping so exponentially the markets heard a Fed free from fear all fall we have been debating are ...

Core Viewpoint - Markets are anticipating over two interest rate cuts in 2026, driven by expectations that labor market softness will outweigh persistent inflation pressures [1] Group 1 - The current market sentiment reflects a belief in a weakening labor market, which is influencing expectations for future monetary policy [1] - Investors are pricing in these cuts as a response to the balance between labor market conditions and inflation [1]

Core Insights - The US Federal Reserve has indicated a pause in interest rate cuts, with only one rate cut expected in 2026, amidst pressures from high inflation and a weak job market [1][3][6] - The Fed's key interest rate has been reduced to approximately 3.6%, a near three-year low, despite dissenting votes advocating for no changes [2][6] - Economic growth in the US is anticipated to improve, with a projected jobless rate decline and inflation expected to decrease to 2.4% by the end of next year [3][4] Federal Reserve's Position - The Fed is cautious about future rate cuts due to the potential impact of trade tariffs on inflation and the overall economy [4][6] - Fed Chair Jay Powell noted that the current policy rate is within a neutral range, allowing the Fed to monitor economic developments before making further changes [6][12] Political Influence and Market Reactions - There is concern regarding the potential political influence on the Fed, especially with President Trump's efforts to appoint supporters of rapid interest rate reductions [7][9] - The upcoming succession of Fed Chair Powell has led to market uncertainty, with fears that a new chair could undermine the Fed's current guidance [9][12] - Market reactions have shown little movement in the dollar and US bond yields following the Fed's decisions, indicating a cautious outlook among investors [10][13]

Core Insights - The Dow Jones Index has experienced significant growth, trading at $47,560, which is a 30% increase from its lowest point of $28,662 in April 2022 [1][2] Performance Overview - The Dow Jones Index, along with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, has benefited from Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, strong earnings growth, and the artificial intelligence boom [2] - Most companies in the Dow Jones Index and its top ETF, the DIA, have shown substantial gains this year, with only 7 companies, including UnitedHealth, Salesforce, Nike, and Procter & Gamble, experiencing declines [3] Top Gainers - Caterpillar (CAT) has emerged as the best-performing company in the Dow Jones Index, with a stock price increase of 62%, resulting in a market capitalization exceeding $278 billion [4] - Goldman Sachs Group (GS) is the second-best performer, with a stock rise of 51% and a market capitalization of $262 billion, benefiting from a trading boom and increased corporate activities [6] - IBM has seen a 40% increase in stock price, bolstered by its acquisition of Confluent and a 9% revenue growth to $16.3 billion, with its AI business reaching $9.5 billion [8][9] - Other notable gainers include Nvidia, Cisco Systems, 3M, JPMorgan, and American Express, all of which have increased by over 21% this year [10] Financial Performance - Caterpillar's revenue rose from $16.1 billion to a record $17.6 billion, although its operating profit slightly declined to $3.1 billion, with adjusted profit per share decreasing from $5.17 to $4.95 [5] - Goldman Sachs reported a revenue increase to $15.18 billion and net earnings of $4.1 billion, driven by strong performance in Global Banking & Markets and asset & wealth management [7]

Core Insights - Silver and copper are emerging as the standout metals heading into 2026, with significant gains in their respective ETFs, indicating strong investor interest and positioning for potential rallies [2][3] - iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has seen a remarkable increase of approximately 96% this year, while United States Copper ETF (CPER) has advanced about 31.7% [2] - A historic supply crunch in the silver market, driven by soaring demand from India and silver-backed ETFs, has contributed to the price surge of silver [3] Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has nearly doubled in price this year, with most gains occurring in the last two months, attributed to a supply squeeze in the London market [3] - Silver's price is currently trading at an 82% premium to its five-year average, nearing its most stretched year-end level since 1979, indicating potential for further price movement [6] - Industrial demand for silver is rising, particularly in green energy applications and the automotive industry, which is expected to drive higher demand [6] Copper Market Fundamentals - Copper's price rally is primarily driven by long-term fundamentals rather than financial speculation, with increasing demand for electrification expected to outpace supply [7] - Morgan Stanley projects a significant copper market deficit of 590,000 tons in 2026, with a base case price forecast of $10,650 per ton and a bull case of $12,780 per ton [8] Market Conditions and Trends - The Federal Reserve has enacted two rate cuts in 2025, with expectations for further cuts, which typically support non-yielding assets like silver, gold, and copper [10] - A weaker U.S. dollar, influenced by potential rate cuts, is expected to favor global metal prices, as most metals are priced in dollars [12]

Core Insights - Income-based investments, particularly those linked to tangible assets, have historically proven to be reliable over the long term, despite recent fluctuations in the Dow Jones Average and S&P 500 due to Federal Reserve policies [1][2] Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider real estate and energy sectors for income-based investments, as these sectors are less dependent on interest rates compared to bonds [3] - The Global X SuperDividend REIT ETF (SRET) offers a high yield of 7.95%, providing diversification and risk mitigation through a portfolio of global REITs [5][6] - The Westwood Salient Enhanced Midstream Income ETF (MDST) yields 10.27% and focuses on midstream companies, which are crucial for energy distribution [10][11] Performance Metrics - SRET has a net asset value of $207.99 million, an expense ratio of 0.58%, and a year-to-date return of 17.82% [6] - MDST has a net asset value of $167.9 million, an expense ratio of 0.80%, and a year-to-date return of 8.06% [10] Sector Analysis - Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are highlighted as a beneficial investment avenue, allowing investors to gain from real estate income without the burdens of property management [4] - Midstream companies are essential for the transportation and processing of oil and gas, with similar profit distribution requirements as REITs [9][11]

Markets are still hoping for more interest rate cuts from the US. But in many other places, it's a different story. Rates may have hit a floor in Europe, Australia, and Canada among others. That's one reason why 2026 may be good for gilts. https://t.co/gdshU5fQ41 ...

Silver and copper have surpassed gold as the standout metals heading into 2026, with both institutional and retail investors positioning for record-breaking rallies. iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has gained about 96% so far this year, while United States Copper ETF (CPER) has advanced about 31.7%. Over the past one month, CPER has gained 5.2%, SLV has surged 15.1% while gold bullion ETF GLD has added 1.9%. Silver’s Explosive Surge and Supply SqueezeAs one can see from the return of SLV, Silver has nearly doubl ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says immediate rate cuts is a requirement for the next Fed Chair. ...