Core Viewpoint - Volta Finance Limited reported a net return of +0.3% for December 2025, bringing the year-to-date performance to +2.7%, which is significantly lower than the returns of US High Yield bonds at +8.5% and Euro High Yield bonds at +5.2% during the same period [4]. Performance and Portfolio Activity - The performance in December was influenced by cautious central banks and mixed macroeconomic signals, with the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points while maintaining a data-dependent approach [5]. - The Morningstar LSTA Leveraged Loan Indices recorded returns of +0.65% in the US and +0.48% in Europe, indicating stable performance compared to November [6]. - Volta Finance took advantage of market conditions by investing €6.0 million in new positions, focusing on both new issues and secondary markets, and targeting a mix of shorter and longer duration profiles [7]. - The fund generated approximately €25 million in cash flow, representing about 19% of December's NAV on an annualized basis [7]. - As of December 2025, Volta's NAV was reported at €259.3 million, equating to €7.09 per share [8].

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of ongoing inflation on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and suggests focusing on low-beta defensive stocks to navigate market volatility [2][3][10] Economic Context - Inflation has risen, with the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index increasing by 2.8% year-over-year in November, moving further away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target [6][8] - Personal income growth has slowed, with increases of 0.1% in October and 0.3% in November, below analysts' expectations [9] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to consider low-beta defensive stocks, particularly in the utility and consumer staples sectors, to mitigate market fluctuations [4][5] - Featured stocks include: - **Ameren Corp. (AEE)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 8.2%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.58, dividend yield of 2.78% [12][13] - **Fortis, Inc. (FTS)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 4.2%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.50, dividend yield of 3.46% [14][15] - **ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 11.8%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.81, dividend yield of 3.47% [16] - **Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 6.6%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.33, dividend yield of 4.76% [17] - **J&J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 4.5%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.34, dividend yield of 3.43% [18][19]

Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to hold interest rates steady when they conclude their first meeting of the new year on Wednesday, as central bank officials look to navigate stubborn inflation and a softening labor market. The central bank's monetary policy panel, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), is expected to leave the Fed's benchmark federal funds rate target unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. It would be the first time the central bank left interest rates unchanged since last summ ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, the company reported a core earnings per share (EPS) of $1.43, a core return on assets (ROA) of 1.42%, and a core return on tangible common equity of 18%, all showing significant year-over-year increases [3][4] - The full-year core EPS for 2025 was $5.21, reflecting a 19% increase from the previous year, while Q4 core EPS increased by 29% year-over-year [4] - The net interest margin (NIM) for the quarter was 3.83%, down 8 basis points from the previous quarter but up 3 basis points year-over-year [4][5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core fee revenue increased by 2% linked quarter and 8% year-over-year, driven by strong growth in wealth and trust, capital markets, and home lending [5] - The wealth and trust business grew by 13% year-over-year, with WSFS Institutional Services achieving a 29% growth and BMT of Delaware growing by 24% [5] - Total gross loans grew by 2% linked quarter, or 9% annualized, with commercial loans leading the growth at 4% linked quarter or 15% annualized [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total client deposits increased by 2% linked quarter or 10% annualized, with non-interest-bearing deposits growing by 6% linked quarter, now representing 32% of total client deposits [6] - The company reported a significant improvement in asset quality, with non-performing assets down approximately 40% compared to year-end 2024 [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to maintain an elevated level of buybacks while targeting a capital ratio of 12%, with a focus on adjusting buyback pace based on macroeconomic conditions and investment opportunities [10] - The outlook for 2026 includes expectations for mid-single-digit loan growth and continued broad-based deposit growth across all business lines [10][11] - The company aims to leverage its fee businesses, which contribute about a third of total revenue, and expects fee revenue to grow in the mid-single digits [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in delivering high performance and growth in 2026, with expectations for a core ROA of approximately 1.40% and double-digit growth in core EPS [10] - The management noted that while the path of future interest rate cuts remains uncertain, they are prepared to manage margins through deposit repricing and other strategies [11] - The company remains committed to evaluating its business lines for strategic fit and profitability, continuing to shed low-performing partnerships [46][47] Other Important Information - The company returned $119 million of capital in Q4 2025, including $109 million in buybacks, totaling $288 million for the year, representing over 9% of outstanding shares [9] - The company expects net charge-offs to be in the range of 35-45 basis points of average loans for the year, consistent with 2025 results [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the better commercial trends and what is driving strong originations? - Management noted that improved economic clarity led to strong originations and fundings in the commercial sector, with a pipeline exceeding $300 million [15][18] Question: What are the parameters for capital return and buybacks? - Management indicated that capital return is primarily driven by CET1 and TCE ratios, with a focus on buybacks as the main method of capital return [20][21] Question: What is the anticipated revenue impact from Cash Connect and margin expectations? - Management expects a $2.5 million annual impact per 25 basis point rate cut on Cash Connect revenue, but margin improvements are anticipated through pricing and expense management [26][27] Question: What is the outlook for deposit growth and the mix of deposits? - Management aims for mid-single-digit deposit growth, with a focus on non-interest-bearing deposits and core operating deposits [36][37] Question: Are there any ongoing evaluations of business lines for profitability? - Management confirmed ongoing evaluations of business lines to ensure strategic fit and profitability, with a focus on shedding low-performing partnerships [44][46] Question: What are the expectations for risk-adjusted returns in the loan portfolio? - Management indicated a focus on real estate-secured portfolios for better risk-adjusted returns, emphasizing competitive advantages in home lending [55][56]

And before we get into the substance, the economic backdrop, the policy, I want to pick up on the more assertive stance, the more aggressive posture, if you will, that chairman Pal seems to be taking this year to defend central bank independence. I'd love your reaction to that and whether you believe he'll carry that into the news conference tomorrow afternoon. >> Yeah, good morning, Jonathan. I think uh the chairman had to take this move. I think we have been dancing around these threats uh to independence ...

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks as he holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), at the U.S. Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C., U.S., Dec. 10, 2025. Kevin Lamarque | ReutersDespite the expected arrival of a new Trump-appointed Federal Reserve chair in coming months, respondents to the CNBC survey are only forecasting modest changes to the funds rate over the next two years.The results, which mirror pricing in Fed Funds futures market, ...

Group 1: Crypto Market Dynamics - Crypto ETFs experienced significant outflows of $1.73 billion last week, marking their worst week since mid-November 2025, following a previous week's inflow of $2.2 billion, indicating fragile sentiment in digital asset markets [2][3] - The largest outflows were from Bitcoin, which saw withdrawals of approximately $1.09 billion, and Ethereum, which recorded about $630 million in outflows, while altcoins showed mixed results [3] - Major issuers faced substantial outflows, with BlackRock's iShares crypto products leading at $951 million, followed by Fidelity Investments with $469 million, and Grayscale Investments with $270 million [5] Group 2: Market Influences - A combination of macroeconomic factors and market-specific pressures contributed to the outflows, including dimming expectations for interest rate cuts, negative price momentum, and frustration over crypto's lack of benefit from the broader "debasement trade" [4] - Total crypto fund assets under management decreased to $178 billion, down from $193 billion the previous week, reflecting the impact of the outflows [6] Group 3: Gold Market Performance - In contrast to the crypto market, gold prices surged past $5,000 per ounce for the first time, trading near $5,080, with a 15% increase over the past 30 days and year-on-year gains exceeding 80% [7] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has been driven by geopolitical tensions, including U.S.-NATO friction and renewed trade threats from Donald Trump [7]

Group 1: Market Outlook - Gold futures are projected to potentially reach $5,500 by 2026, while silver futures could hit $11,520 due to market volatility [1] - Continued central bank buying and private investor ETF flows are driving demand for gold and silver, with expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Fed [2][4] - Poland has added 150 tons of gold to its reserves, while India is reducing its US Treasury holdings in favor of gold investments [3] Group 2: Investment Trends - There is a multi-year increase in gold ETF holdings as both individuals and institutions view gold as a strong portfolio asset for diversification against inflation and geopolitical risks [4] - The traditional 60/40 portfolio strategy is being replaced by allocations to strategic commodities like gold, silver, and copper [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The average true range for gold is currently $95 per day, while silver is at $5 per day, indicating potential for significant sell-offs during market corrections [7] - There are multi-year supply deficits in metals, coupled with strong industrial and investment demand, creating a scenario where demand outpaces supply [7] - The market for platinum is experiencing new highs, driven by supply constraints from South Africa and Russia, which together account for a significant portion of global production [10][11]

Gold (GC=F) rose close to $5,000 per ounce on Friday while silver (SI=F) touched $100 in what has been an epic rally for precious metals. Bullion is headed toward its best week since 2020, gaining 13% year-to-date. Goldman Sachs noted private sector investors have been getting in on the epic rally in addition to central banks' accumulation of gold. Strategists cite a weaker US dollar, expectations of Federal Reserve easing, large fiscal deficits, and fading demand for government debt. Earlier this week ...

Core Insights - The homebuilding sector is expected to benefit from potential interest rate cuts in 2026, which could make financing cheaper for homebuyers [2] - Despite optimism, homebuilders face challenges such as high regulatory costs, material prices, and increased competition due to rising inventory [3][4] - The Direxion Daily Homebuilders and Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL) has seen significant inflows, indicating market interest in homebuilder stocks [1] Interest Rates and Market Conditions - The direction of interest rates will be a key factor for homebuilders, with lower rates being favorable for the sector [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's indication of only one rate cut may not align with market expectations, leading to potential for more aggressive cuts [2] - Builders are currently offering incentives to attract buyers, reflecting challenging market conditions [4] Supply-Side Challenges - Builders are facing supply-side headwinds, including high regulatory costs and material prices, which are impacting construction costs [3][4] - Tariffs are contributing to rising material and labor prices, further complicating the market for homebuilders [4] Investment Opportunities - Despite the challenges, there is potential for trading activity in homebuilders as traders anticipate a market turnaround [4] - NAIL seeks to achieve 300% of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index, which includes a range of companies in the home construction sector [5]